Stake & Siphon
A hypothetical staking-ladder simulator, not a backtest of real picks. Double the stake once banked profit clears a multiple of it, skim a cut into mutual funds first, and see how a real hit rate and a cash reserve change the outcome. Every number below is a knob.
Every number you type stays in your local currency — only what's displayed converts.
The pile itself doesn't grow here — this just prices what today's balance would pay out monthly if it were earning that ROI.
$5.18 starts in play, $68.79 held back as reserve.
A loss costs the day's stake. If the bankroll can't cover the next stake, cash gets injected from the reserve — the run truly ends the first day the reserve can't cover it either.
Net worth over time
The siphon doesn't cost you time. Total net worth on day 28 is the same no matter what % you send to mutual funds — the stake-doubling schedule only depends on banked profit vs. the current stake, not on where that profit ends up sitting. The siphon knob changes how much of your money is exposed on any given day (right now, only 5.0% of the total is actually staked) — not how fast you get there. Right now every simulated draw wins — lower the hit-rate slider to see how often a real streak of losses exhausts the $68.79 reserve before ever reaching the target.
Day-by-day ledger
Every trigger day is highlighted — that's where the stake doubles and a cut moves to mutual funds.
| Day | Stake | Day's profit | Betting bankroll | Mutual funds | Fund's yield (22% ROI) | Total net worth | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $5.18 | +$20.71 | $25.89 | $0 | $0 | $25.89 | |
| 2 | $5.18 | +$20.71 | $46.60 | $0 | $0 | $46.60 | |
| 3 | $5.18 | +$20.71 | $48.67 | $18.64 | $0.34 | $67.31 | GrowthStake $5.18 → $10.36 · $18.64 → mutual funds |
| 4 | $10.36 | +$41.42 | $90.09 | $18.64 | $0.34 | $108.73 | |
| 5 | $10.36 | +$41.42 | $131.51 | $18.64 | $0.34 | $150.15 | |
| 6 | $10.36 | +$41.42 | $135.65 | $55.92 | $1.03 | $191.57 | GrowthStake $10.36 → $20.71 · $37.28 → mutual funds |
| 7 | $20.71 | +$82.84 | $218.49 | $55.92 | $1.03 | $274.41 | |
| 8 | $20.71 | +$82.84 | $301.33 | $55.92 | $1.03 | $357.25 | |
| 9 | $20.71 | +$82.84 | $309.62 | $130.47 | $2.39 | $440.09 | GrowthStake $20.71 → $41.42 · $74.56 → mutual funds |
| 10 | $41.42 | +$165.68 | $475.30 | $130.47 | $2.39 | $605.77 | |
| 11 | $41.42 | +$165.68 | $640.98 | $130.47 | $2.39 | $771.45 | |
| 12 | $41.42 | +$165.68 | $657.54 | $279.59 | $5.13 | $937.13 | GrowthStake $41.42 → $82.84 · $149.11 → mutual funds |
| 13 | $82.84 | +$331.36 | $988.91 | $279.59 | $5.13 | $1,268 | |
| 14 | $82.84 | +$331.36 | $1,320 | $279.59 | $5.13 | $1,600 | |
| 15 | $82.84 | +$331.36 | $1,353 | $577.81 | $10.59 | $1,931 | GrowthStake $82.84 → $165.68 · $298.22 → mutual funds |
| 16 | $165.68 | +$662.72 | $2,016 | $577.81 | $10.59 | $2,594 | |
| 17 | $165.68 | +$662.72 | $2,679 | $577.81 | $10.59 | $3,257 | |
| 18 | $165.68 | +$662.72 | $2,745 | $1,174 | $21.53 | $3,919 | GrowthStake $165.68 → $331.36 · $596.45 → mutual funds |
| 19 | $331.36 | +$1,325 | $4,071 | $1,174 | $21.53 | $5,245 | |
| 20 | $331.36 | +$1,325 | $5,396 | $1,174 | $21.53 | $6,570 | |
| 21 | $331.36 | +$1,325 | $5,529 | $2,367 | $43.40 | $7,896 | GrowthStake $331.36 → $662.72 · $1,193 → mutual funds |
| 22 | $662.72 | +$2,651 | $8,179 | $2,367 | $43.40 | $10,547 | |
| 23 | $662.72 | +$2,651 | $10,830 | $2,367 | $43.40 | $13,197 | |
| 24 | $662.72 | +$2,651 | $11,095 | $4,753 | $87.14 | $15,848 | GrowthStake $662.72 → $1,325 · $2,386 → mutual funds |
| 25 | $1,325 | +$5,302 | $16,397 | $4,753 | $87.14 | $21,150 | |
| 26 | $1,325 | +$5,302 | $21,699 | $4,753 | $87.14 | $26,452 | |
| 27 | $1,325 | +$5,302 | $22,229 | $9,525 | $174.62 | $31,754 | GrowthStake $1,325 → $2,651 · $4,772 → mutual funds |
| 28 | $2,651 | +$10,604 | $32,833 | $9,525 | $174.62 | $42,357 | |
| 29 | $2,651 | +$10,604 | $43,436 | $9,525 | $174.62 | $52,961 | |
| 30 | $2,651 | +$10,604 | $44,497 | $19,068 | $349.58 | $63,564 | GrowthStake $2,651 → $5,302 · $9,543 → mutual funds |
| 31 | $5,302 | +$21,207 | $65,704 | $19,068 | $349.58 | $84,771 | |
| 32 | $5,302 | +$21,207 | $86,911 | $19,068 | $349.58 | $105,979 | |
| 33 | $5,302 | +$21,207 | $89,032 | $38,154 | $699.49 | $127,186 | GrowthStake $5,302 → $10,604 · $19,086 → mutual funds |
| 34 | $10,604 | +$42,414 | $131,446 | $38,154 | $699.49 | $169,600 | |
| 35 | $10,604 | +$42,414 | $173,860 | $38,154 | $699.49 | $212,014 |
Every day assumed a win unless you lower the hit-rate knob — that knob only prices the odds of the streak, it doesn't change the best-case chart above.