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Over 1.5

#PJSSZ9 · 31.3% combined

Started with 119 games today → ended with 8 on the card.

35 candidates shortlisted; 8 made the card after research. Notable cuts: Groningen v Zwolle (external preview independently confirms the last two meetings were low-scoring draws between two winless sides); Montevideo Torque/Cienciano and Flamengo/IDV (both leg-2 cup ties where one side already holds a 2-0 aggregate lead -- real game-management risk the raw model can't see); Finn Harps/Longford and Widzew/Wieczysta (home shrunk rates already below bar before injuries made it worse); several large-sample H2H cuts (Bohemians/Drogheda 66.7% over 25 meetings, Wisla/Slask 72.2% over 10, Yeovil/Solihull 69.2%).
119
Games happening today
117(98% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −2 too little match history for one or both sides
67(57% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −50 below 78% on the plain statistical model
39(58% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −28 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
35(90% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
↓ −4 trimmed by the 35-per-day research limit
8(23% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −27 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
8(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (8)

  • Bayern Munich v 1. FC Union Berlin91%
    λ≈4.35. Bayern missing Gnabry/Davies (attackers) but still averaging 3.8 gf/pg at home; Union missing 6+ first-team defenders (Friedrich, N'Soki, Leite, Juranovic, Rothe, Skov) -- their defensive crisis outweighs Bayern's own gaps. Discounted slightly from raw 93.1%.
  • TOP Oss v FC Dordrecht88%
    λ≈3.6. Both sides bottom-half and out of form; Dordrecht independently confirmed conceding an average of 4.0 goals/game recently, corroborating the away lambda. Nudged up from raw 87.4%.
  • Brentford v Chelsea87%
    λ≈3.3. Chelsea independently confirmed conceding at least twice in every league game this season under new manager Xabi Alonso (10 for, 9 against in 4 games) -- strong real-world corroboration. Both sides carry absences but mostly non-forwards. Upgraded from raw 84.1%.
  • Zhejiang Professional FC v Wuhan Three Towns87%
    λ≈3.7. Zhejiang full-strength with Mitrita in hat-trick form; Wuhan bottom-of-table and shipping goals in a well-documented high-event pattern this season. Kept close to raw 88.4%.
  • FC Eindhoven v FC Emmen87%
    λ≈3.85. Both venue splits solid (80% each); Eindhoven's recent 1-3 home loss confirms real defensive leakiness backing the away lambda. Modest discount from raw 89.7% for no specific team news found.
  • Manchester City v Liverpool85%
    λ≈3.55. City's home scoring (3.5 gf/pg) dwarfs Liverpool's away concession rate; no team news found either way. Trimmed slightly from raw 86.9% for lack of specific confirmation.
  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Magdeburg84%
    λ≈3.6. Fürth have lost every home league game this season (leaky defense); Magdeburg riding a 3-game win streak but missing 5 players (Loric, Hyryläinen, Džogović, Krempicki, Ahl-Holmström) -- squad depth stretched. Nets out near raw 87.4%.
  • RKC Waalwijk v MVV Maastricht83%
    λ≈3.3. RKC (5th, 4 home wins) comfortably placed and in form; MVV (18th) bottom-half and shipping goals on the road. No red flags found. Modest discount from raw 84.1% for no fresh team news.

Researched but cut (26)

  • af:162889878%
    Away side's sample is just 3 matches (ga_pg 3.67 driven by extreme outliers like a 1-9 loss); never-met H2H gives no corroboration. Too thin to trust at this bar despite raw 89.9%.
  • FC Groningen v PEC Zwolle76%
    External preview independently confirms this exact fixture: last two meetings were low-scoring draws (1-1, 2-2), goals 'not particularly frequent' between these sides, and Groningen missing 2 first-teamers while both sides are winless in 4-6 games. Cut despite raw 87.9%.
  • Widzew Łódź v Wieczysta Kraków74%
    Home side has 4 first-team absences (2 knee injuries, an Achilles issue, a wound) stacked on an already-below-bar home shrunk rate (72.2%); never-met H2H gives no corroborating signal. Cut.
  • Finn Harps v Longford Town73%
    Home side's shrunk rate (61.1%) sits well below bar on its own -- Finn Harps have scored just 0.7 gf/pg at home over the last 10; the away side's strength can't fully carry it. Cut.
  • Montevideo City Torque v Cienciano del Cusco74%
    Leg 2 of a Sudamericana QF: Cienciano leads 2-0 on aggregate from leg 1 and reportedly practiced penalties pregame -- signals they expect (and want) a low-event, defensive match. Cut despite raw 84.7%.
  • Jong FC Utrecht v VVV-Venlo75%
    H2H shrunk rate is only 61.5% -- two of the last five meetings were 0-0, a genuinely low-scoring rivalry regardless of either side's general form. Cut.
  • AS Monaco v Lens82%
    No fresh team news could be found to confirm or move the raw model's estimate; fell just outside the top 8 by probability once other candidates cleared the bar with real corroborating evidence.
  • Pau v Dunkerque78%
    Dunkerque conceding freely supports the away lambda, but Pau's own scoring has dried up recently (0.67 gf/pg over last 6) -- a real drag on reaching the total from the home side. Below the top 8.
  • Jong Ajax v Roda JC Kerkrade78%
    Jong Ajax's own home form is poor which supports the away lambda, and Roda JC backs their side too, but this settled below the top-8 cutoff after other candidates researched stronger.
  • af:162160977%
    No specific team news found for this Israeli lower-division fixture; kept close to raw off the data alone but fell outside the top 8.
  • Lahti v FF Jaro78%
    No fresh news found; venue splits alone support the total (FF Jaro conceding 3.2/game away) but this landed outside the top 8 after stronger-corroborated picks.
  • Bray Wanderers v Treaty United76%
    Large 23-match H2H sample shrinks to only 74.2% (avg 2.61 goals) -- a longer, more reliable history that runs cooler than the raw model's single-season estimate. Cut.
  • Strasbourg v Paris FC77%
    No team news found specific to this fixture; kept near raw off the underlying data alone but fell outside the top 8.
  • Wisla Krakow v Slask Wroclaw72%
    10-match H2H shrinks to just 72.2% -- several of these meetings were tight 1-0/1-1 affairs, not corroborated by fresh news. Cut.
  • Derry City v Galway United78%
    Michael Duffy (Derry's winger) independently reported in strong form and an independent scoreline prediction (2-2) is consistent with the total, but this fell outside the top 8.
  • Polonia Bytom v Ruch Chorzów77%
    No fresh news found for this Polish lower-tier fixture; H2H and venue splits broadly consistent with raw but outside the top 8.
  • Flamengo v Independiente del Valle74%
    Leg 2 of a Libertadores QF: Flamengo already won leg 1 2-0 away and holds a commanding aggregate lead -- classic game-management context at home rather than an open, high-event match. Cut despite raw 82.2%.
  • Lyngby Boldklub v Silkeborg IF70%
    Home venue split is only 4 matches (thin, flagged) -- too little data to trust the home lambda at this bar without independent confirmation. Cut.
  • Haka v Klubi-0476%
    No fresh news for this Finnish second-tier fixture; H2H and venue splits broadly align but outside the top 8.
  • Husqvarna v IFK Skövde71%
    H2H is only 4 meetings (thin); no independent news found for this Swedish lower-tier fixture. Too thin to carry at essentially the bar -- cut.
  • Shamrock Rovers v Waterford77%
    Large 22-match H2H sample shrinks to a strong 86.7% -- one of the more reliable histories here, but still fell outside the top 8 by probability.
  • Yeovil Town v Solihull Moors71%
    H2H shrunk to 69.2% -- a real drag on an otherwise modest raw figure, with no fresh news to override it. Cut.
  • Falkenbergs FF v Ostersunds FK74%
    H2H shrunk rate (78.9%) sits right at the bar with no fresh news to push it either way -- too marginal to carry. Cut.
  • Bohemians v Drogheda United68%
    25-match H2H (the largest sample on this shortlist) shrinks to just 66.7% -- a long, reliable history that runs well below bar. Cut despite raw 80.1%.
  • Odra Bytom Odrzański v Barycz Sułów70%
    Away side's sample is only 6 matches (thin) and the sides have never met -- too little reliable data at this bar. Cut.
  • Atlético Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellín74%
    H2H shrunk to 76.9%, sitting just under bar on its own, with no fresh news to push it back up. Cut given the model's own margin here was already thin (raw 79.3%).
Full shortlist sent to the agent (35)
  • Bayern Munich v 1. FC Union Berlin (ger.1)93.1%
  • FC Eindhoven v FC Emmen (ned.2)89.7%
  • Zhejiang Professional FC v Wuhan Three Towns (chn.1)88.4%
  • FC Groningen v PEC Zwolle (ned.1)87.9%
  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Magdeburg (ger.2)87.4%
  • TOP Oss v FC Dordrecht (ned.2)87.4%
  • Herrestads v Kumla (af.sweden)87.4%
  • Manchester City v Liverpool (eng.w.1)86.9%
  • Albacete v Córdoba (esp.2)86.9%
  • AS Monaco v Lens (fra.1)85.3%
  • Widzew Łódź v Wieczysta Kraków (af.poland)85.3%
  • Finn Harps v Longford Town (af.ireland)85.3%
  • Montevideo City Torque v Cienciano del Cusco (conmebol.sudamericana)84.7%
  • Jong FC Utrecht v VVV-Venlo (ned.2)84.7%
  • FC Sochi v Ska-khabarovsk (af.russia)84.7%
  • RKC Waalwijk v MVV Maastricht (ned.2)84.1%
  • Brentford v Chelsea (eng.1)84.1%
  • Pau v Dunkerque (fra.2)83.5%
  • Jong Ajax v Roda JC Kerkrade (ned.2)83.5%
  • Lahti v FF Jaro (af.finland)83.5%
  • Bray Wanderers v Treaty United (af.ireland)83.5%
  • Strasbourg v Paris FC (fra.w.1)82.9%
  • Wisla Krakow v Slask Wroclaw (af.poland)82.9%
  • Derry City v Galway United (af.ireland)82.9%
  • Polonia Bytom v Ruch Chorzów (af.poland)82.7%
  • Flamengo v Independiente del Valle (conmebol.libertadores)82.2%
  • Lyngby Boldklub v Silkeborg IF (den.1)81.5%
  • Haka v Klubi-04 (af.finland)81.5%
  • Husqvarna v IFK Skövde (af.sweden)81.5%
  • Shamrock Rovers v Waterford (af.ireland)81.5%
  • Yeovil Town v Solihull Moors (eng.5)80.1%
  • Falkenbergs FF v Ostersunds FK (af.sweden)80.1%
  • Bohemians v Drogheda United (af.ireland)80.1%
  • Odra Bytom Odrzański v Barycz Sułów (af.poland)79.6%
  • Atlético Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellín (col.1)79.3%

Double Chance 12

#SCV8LW · 22.6% combined

Started with 119 games today → ended with 7 on the card.

28 candidates surveyed; 8 made the card. Most cuts came from shrunk H2H or venue signals disagreeing with the raw model (Bray Wanderers, Almere City, Groningen, Maccabi Yavne, Fürth, RKC Waalwijk) rather than a single dominant reason. Two cup ties were cut on context alone: Cienciano (already 2-0 up on aggregate, needs only to avoid a heavy loss) and Olimpia (3-0 up, hosting a near-dead-rubber). Monaco-Lens cut on fresh news both sides drew their last league match. Albacete-Cordoba cut on mismatched motivation (Cordoba chasing a playoff spot but missing 3 first-teamers; Albacete has nothing to play for).
119
Games happening today
117(98% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −2 too little match history for one or both sides
44(38% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −73 below 78% on the plain statistical model
29(66% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −15 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
29(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
8(28% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −21 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
7(88% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day
↓ −1 fell below the bar, or bumped by the daily cap

Made the card (7)

  • Manchester City v Liverpool83%
    lam=2.40 home, 1.15 away; genuine title-race stakes (Liverpool 1st, City 2nd) push both to attack rather than settle; City's home not-draw rate a perfect 10/10, h2h shrunk to a still-strong 84.6% off a thin 5-game sample.
  • Vila Nova v América Mineiro82%
    lam=2.05 home, 0.70 away; Vila Nova (3rd, best home record in Serie B at 82% efficiency) hosts a desperate America-MG (19th, worst away form at 11.9%) -- both need a win not a point, cutting draw risk below what the raw model assumes.
  • Bayern Munich v 1. FC Union Berlin82%
    Raw 86.2%; Bayern missing Musiala/Davies/Neuer plus Diaz/Tah/Jackson suspended, but Union sit bottom on 1pt conceding 7 in 2 games -- h2h shrunk only 69.2% off a thin 5-game sample discounted the figure to reflect real uncertainty rather than the raw streak.
  • Lahti v FF Jaro81%
    lam=2.55 home, 0.70 away; Jaro's away record is genuinely dire (6 for, 32 against in 10 games) -- they're either losing badly or occasionally nicking a win, rarely drawing (away shrunk 88.9%); 16-game h2h shrunk to a solid 79.1%.
  • Shamrock Rovers v Waterford80%
    Dominant defending champions (chasing a 6th title in 7 seasons) host a Waterford side mid a 16-game winless run; h2h shrunk to a strong 90% off a real 22-game sample -- this fixture has historically almost never drawn.
  • CA Batna v Azazga79%
    Home side has conceded just 5 in 10 (0.5 ga/pg) with 7 clean sheets; H2H is a single stale 2016 meeting so treated as near-uninformative, relying on the better-sampled venue splits (83.3%/81.8% shrunk) instead, discounted slightly for that uncertainty.
  • Torslanda v Lindome79%
    H2H is a genuinely decisive series -- 5 meetings, avg 4.4 goals, zero draws (shrunk 84.6%); both venue splits shrunk to a consistent 77.8%; no news available for this Swedish lower-tier fixture so kept at the data-driven figure.

Researched but cut (20)

  • af:162889874%
    Home shrunk not-draw rate only 66.6% (raw 3 draws in 7 home games) -- draws too often at home to trust despite a decent raw model output.
  • af:162189375%
    Home sample is a single match (n=1) -- far too thin to trust regardless of what the raw model computed from it.
  • Almere City v Heracles Almelo73%
    H2H shrunk to only 61.5% -- 3 of the last 5 meetings (60%) were draws, a real pattern, not noise.
  • Bray Wanderers v Treaty United72%
    All three signals (home 72.2%, away 72.2%, h2h 67.7% off a real 23-game sample) sit below bar despite the raw model's 81.1% -- the raw number should be discounted here, not trusted.
  • Herrestads v Kumla74%
    Home shrunk only 72.2%, below bar; Swedish lower tier, no team news available to offset it.
  • FC Eindhoven v FC Emmen74%
    Away shrunk 72.2%, below bar; not enough elsewhere to compensate.
  • FC Groningen v PEC Zwolle68%
    H2H shrunk only 53.8% -- PEC leads the series 1-0-4, meaning 4 of the last 5 meetings were draws; both venue splits also sit at/below bar.
  • Montevideo City Torque v Cienciano del Cusco70%
    Copa Sudamericana QF 2nd leg -- Cienciano already won the first leg 2-0 and only needs to avoid a heavy defeat to advance, a real incentive to sit in and accept a draw that the raw model can't see.
  • af:162160873%
    All three signals (70.6%/76.5%/76.5%) sit below bar.
  • RKC Waalwijk v MVV Maastricht74%
    Both venue splits shrunk to 72.2%, below bar, despite a reasonable h2h.
  • MC Alger v MB Rouisset76%
    H2H shrunk only 70% off a thin 2-game sample; close to the bar but not quite there once priced in properly.
  • TOP Oss v FC Dordrecht74%
    Away shrunk 72.2% and h2h shrunk 69.2% (2 draws in 5) outweigh a strong home figure.
  • Zhejiang Professional FC v Wuhan Three Towns71%
    Away shrunk only 61.1% -- Wuhan draw half their away games; no team news found to offset that.
  • AS Monaco v Lens73%
    Away shrunk already 61.1% below bar, and fresh news shows both sides' most recent league match (last weekend) ended in a draw -- exactly the kind of risk the raw model can't see.
  • Linköping W v Husqvarna W77%
    H2H is only 2 meetings, too thin to lean on; venue splits alone don't clear the bar with real conviction.
  • Albacete v Córdoba74%
    H2H shrunk 69.2%; Cordoba is fighting for a playoff spot but missing 3 first-teamers (2 suspended, 1 injured) while Albacete has nothing left to play for this season -- mismatched motivation raises draw risk.
  • Łomża v Ząbkovia Ząbki75%
    H2H is only 2 meetings; all three signals sit right at or below the bar with no real margin.
  • Finn Harps v Longford Town71%
    H2H shrunk only 59.2% off a real 19-game sample -- more draws than not historically between these two, a real signal, not noise.
  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Magdeburg74%
    H2H shrunk 69.2% (2 draws in 5) and home shrunk only 77.8%; only the away figure (88.9%) is genuinely strong.
  • Club Deportivo Olimpia v Luis Ángel Firpo68%
    CONCACAF Central American Cup QF 2nd leg -- Olimpia already leads 3-0 on aggregate and is hosting, a near-dead-rubber for the favorite with little incentive to chase a result.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (29)
  • Rodina Moscow U19 v Nizhny Novgorod U19 (af.russia)88.5%
  • Bayern Munich v 1. FC Union Berlin (ger.1)86.2%
  • Lahti v FF Jaro (af.finland)85.4%
  • Krasnodar U19 v Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (af.russia)82.7%
  • CA Batna v Azazga (af.algeria)82.1%
  • Manchester City v Liverpool (eng.w.1)81.7%
  • Almere City v Heracles Almelo (ned.2)81.3%
  • Bray Wanderers v Treaty United (af.ireland)81.1%
  • Herrestads v Kumla (af.sweden)81%
  • Vila Nova v América Mineiro (bra.2)80.6%
  • FC Eindhoven v FC Emmen (ned.2)80.5%
  • FC Groningen v PEC Zwolle (ned.1)80%
  • Montevideo City Torque v Cienciano del Cusco (conmebol.sudamericana)79.6%
  • Rostov U19 v Almaz Antey U19 (af.russia)79.3%
  • RKC Waalwijk v MVV Maastricht (ned.2)79.2%
  • MC Alger v MB Rouisset (af.algeria)79.1%
  • TOP Oss v FC Dordrecht (ned.2)79%
  • Zhejiang Professional FC v Wuhan Three Towns (chn.1)78.8%
  • Torslanda v Lindome (af.sweden)78.8%
  • AS Monaco v Lens (fra.1)78.7%
  • Malmö FF W v Djurgården W (af.sweden)78.6%
  • Linköping W v Husqvarna W (af.sweden)78.6%
  • Albacete v Córdoba (esp.2)78.4%
  • Łomża v Ząbkovia Ząbki (af.poland)78.3%
  • FC Sochi v Ska-khabarovsk (af.russia)78.3%
  • Finn Harps v Longford Town (af.ireland)78.3%
  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Magdeburg (ger.2)78.2%
  • Shamrock Rovers v Waterford (af.ireland)78.1%
  • Club Deportivo Olimpia v Luis Ángel Firpo (concacaf.central.american.cup)78%