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Over 1.5

#LFJ8W4 · 25% combined

Started with 391 games today → ended with 8 on the card.

35 candidates shortlisted; 8 made the card. Notable cuts: Forest Green v Boston (H2H shrunk 66.7%, 2/4 over 1.5 including a 0-0), Cajamarca v Cusco (1 H2H at 1-0 only), Kisvarda v Paks (home shrunk 61.1%), Hartlepool v Worthing (away only 3 games), Çorum v Alanyaspor (2 home games), Roma v Inter (H2H shrunk 61.5%), Willem II v Fortuna (H2H avg 1.4 goals), Orlando Pride v Portland (H2H avg 2.0, 3/5 over 1.5), Kilmarnock v Hearts (H2H shrunk 69.2%, home shrunk 72.2%), and several others that cleared 78% but ranked below the top 8.
391
Games happening today
353(90% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −38 too little match history for one or both sides
190(54% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −163 below 78% on the plain statistical model
78(41% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −112 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
35(45% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
↓ −43 trimmed by the 35-per-day research limit
8(23% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −27 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
8(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (8)

  • Ajax Amsterdam v Excelsior90%
    λ≈3.85. Both shrunk at 88.9%; H2H shrunk 84.6% with 5/5 H2H all over 1.5 (avg 4.0 goals); Ajax on back-to-back 5-1 wins, Excelsior unbeaten away and scoring freely; Bouwman out (chest) but peripheral; no blocking injuries found.
  • IF Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg85%
    λ≈3.60. Away shrunk 88.9% (10/10); home shrunk 83.3%; H2H shrunk 76.9% with 4/5 H2H over 1.5 (avg 3.6); Göteborg won 4-1 most recently; H2H shrunk below raw pulled the number from 87% but still strong.
  • FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus84%
    λ≈3.40. Away shrunk 88.9% (10/10); H2H shrunk 84.6% (5/5 over 1.5, avg 3.4); home shrunk 83.3%; Nagoya in poor league form (2W 0D 4L), conceding 2.2/g; Marcus Vinicius temporarily absent — modestly positive for over 1.5.
  • Ekranas v FA Šiauliai II84%
    λ≈3.45. H2H shrunk 87.5% — best in the cohort (8/8 over 1.5, avg 4.88); home shrunk 77.8%, away shrunk 83.3%; both sides concede heavily; no injury news found; Lithuanian lower division but the H2H evidence is robust.
  • Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem83%
    λ≈3.20. H2H shrunk 84.6% — extraordinary avg of 4.8 goals across all 5 meetings; home shrunk 77.8%, away shrunk 83.3%; Zulte recent form patchy (0-1 at home last week) but the H2H pattern is league-best for goals; discounted from raw 82.9%.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg83%
    λ≈3.30. H2H shrunk 84.6% (5/5 over 1.5, avg 4.2); home 9/10 over 1.5 (shrunk 83.3%); Freiburg top of Bundesliga (3W in 3, 5-0 last week), Frankfurt won 3-1 at Mainz; away shrunk 77.8% is the floor — held at 83%.
  • Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen82%
    λ≈3.25. H2H shrunk 84.6% (5/5 over 1.5, avg 3.0); away shrunk 88.9%; Heerenveen missing Hilgers + Linday + Egbring defensively; Sparta missing Mito + de Ligt — attacking concern tempers the uplift; held at 82%.
  • ADO Den Haag v SC Cambuur82%
    λ≈3.55. H2H shrunk 84.6% (5/5 over 1.5, avg 4.0); Cambuur away shrunk 83.3%; ADO home shrunk 72.2% (7/10) is the real drag on the raw 86.9% — honestly priced down from raw to reflect cagier ADO home record.

Researched but cut (27)

  • Forest Green Rovers v Boston United82%
    H2H shrunk 66.7% — 2 of 4 meetings produced 0 or 1 total goal (0-0 in Oct 2025, 1-0 in Dec 2024); the H2H actively undermines the strong home venue rate.
  • FC Cajamarca v Cusco FC78%
    Only 1 H2H (1-0 low-scorer, shrunk 66.7%); away shrunk only 77.8% (borderline); too many soft spots to justify inclusion.
  • Kisvarda FC v Paks78%
    Home shrunk 61.1% (only 5/10 home over 1.5); raw driven by Paks' strong away rate; Kisvarda's home venue is a genuine drag.
  • Lechia Zielona Góra v Znicz Pruszków80%
    Never met; away shrunk only 73.3% (7 games); both shrunk rates diverge enough from raw to push below top-8 threshold.
  • FC Bacau v Cetatea Suceava78%
    Never met; home shrunk 72.2% (7/10 over 1.5); insufficient confidence without H2H in lower Romanian division.
  • Celta Vigo v Racing Santander81%
    H2H shrunk 69.2%; 4 of 5 H2H meetings are from 2005-2007 (essentially stale); only 1 modern meeting (5-3 Jan 2025) inflates raw avg.
  • Ştefăneşti v Metaloglobus79%
    Never met; home shrunk 77.8% at threshold only; Romanian lower division — insufficient evidence to rank in top 8.
  • FK Košice v Ružomberok82%
    Never met; home 9/9 over 1.5 (shrunk 88.2%) is strong but without H2H evidence ranked outside top 8 given the no-meet flag.
  • Hartlepool United v Worthing73%
    Away only 3 games (shrunk 81.8% is near-worthless sample); home shrunk 61.1% (5/10); never met — too thin overall.
  • Çorum FK v Alanyaspor72%
    Home split only 2 games (shrunk 70%); away shrunk 72.2%; never met — extremely thin data, raw model overconfident.
  • Boreham Wood v Harrogate Town78%
    H2H stale (newest 2020) and shrunk 61.5% (2/5 over 1.5); honestly priced out once the stale H2H drag is applied.
  • Livingston v Inverness Caledonian Thistle76%
    H2H shrunk 69.2% (3/5 over 1.5); away shrunk 72.2%; both weak — insufficient to clear 78% after honest adjustment.
  • Örgryte IS v IK Sirius81%
    Home shrunk 77.8% is the drag; H2H only 1 meeting (shrunk 77.8%); decent but ranks below top 8.
  • Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian75%
    H2H shrunk 69.2% (3/5 over 1.5, including 3 of last 4 under 1.5); home shrunk 72.2% — too many weak indicators.
  • Orlando Pride v Portland Thorns FC73%
    H2H shrunk 69.2% (3/5 over 1.5, avg 2.0); home shrunk 72.2%; NWSL lower-scoring context — below 78% after adjustment.
  • Kawasaki Frontale v Kashima Antlers80%
    H2H shrunk 76.9%; lower lambda (1.65+1.65); ranks below top 8 in adjusted ordering.
  • Rochdale v Oldham Athletic79%
    H2H shrunk 69.2% (3/5 over 1.5 — includes 0-0 in 2022 and 1-0 in Feb 2025); borderline but H2H drag pushes it out.
  • Tamworth v Wealdstone77%
    Home shrunk 72.2% (7/10); H2H shrunk 75% (3/4 over 1.5); combined soft spots push below 78%.
  • Molde v Aalesund81%
    Molde have 4 players injured (Hansen, Hestad, Diop, Stenevik all returning Late/Early Oct); home shrunk 77.8%; rank below top 8 after injury discount.
  • Hamburg SV v FC Cologne81%
    H2H shrunk 76.9%; Cologne away 10/10 is strong but home shrunk 77.8% and H2H mixed — ranks below top 8.
  • VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund81%
    Stuttgart missing Stiller + 5 others; Dortmund missing Can + 4 others; H2H shrunk 76.9%; injury volume on both sides discounts from raw — ranks below top 8.
  • Willem II v Fortuna Sittard74%
    H2H shrunk 61.5% — the 5-meeting H2H averages only 1.4 goals with 3 of 5 under 1.5; actively negative H2H pattern despite strong venue splits.
  • Paris FC v Strasbourg76%
    H2H only 2 meetings (shrunk 70%); home shrunk 72.2% (7/10 over 1.5); multiple soft spots — below 78%.
  • AS Roma v Internazionale73%
    H2H shrunk 61.5% (2/5 over 1.5 — two recent meetings were both 1-0 scorelines); Roma/Inter derby context suppresses goals.
  • Royal Charleroi SC v Cercle Brugge KSV80%
    H2H shrunk 76.9%; home shrunk 83.3%, away shrunk 77.8%; solid but ranks 9th in adjusted order — just missed top 8.
  • Diosgyori VTK v Gyirmot SE74%
    H2H stale (newest 2023, oldest 2016, shrunk 69.2%); Gyirmot away splits include lower-division matches — mixed competition context.
  • Lommel SK v KV Mechelen73%
    Home shrunk 66.7% (only 4 home games, 2/4 over 1.5); never met; too thin on home evidence.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (35)
  • Forest Green Rovers v Boston United (eng.5)89.7%
  • Ajax Amsterdam v Excelsior (ned.1)89.7%
  • FC Cajamarca v Cusco FC (per.1)87.9%
  • Kisvarda FC v Paks (af.hungary)87.9%
  • Lechia Zielona Góra v Znicz Pruszków (af.poland)87.8%
  • IF Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg (swe.1)87.4%
  • FC Bacau v Cetatea Suceava (af.romania)87.4%
  • ADO Den Haag v SC Cambuur (ned.1)86.9%
  • Celta Vigo v Racing Santander (esp.1)86.4%
  • Ştefăneşti v Metaloglobus (af.romania)86.4%
  • Ekranas v FA Šiauliai II (af.lithuania)85.9%
  • FK Košice v Ružomberok (af.slovakia)85.9%
  • Hartlepool United v Worthing (eng.5)85.7%
  • FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus (jpn.1)85.3%
  • Çorum FK v Alanyaspor (tur.1)85.3%
  • Boreham Wood v Harrogate Town (eng.5)84.7%
  • Livingston v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (sco.2)84.7%
  • Örgryte IS v IK Sirius (swe.1)84.7%
  • Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian (sco.1)84.7%
  • Orlando Pride v Portland Thorns FC (usa.nwsl)84.7%
  • Kawasaki Frontale v Kashima Antlers (jpn.1)84.1%
  • Rochdale v Oldham Athletic (eng.4)84.1%
  • Tamworth v Wealdstone (eng.5)84.1%
  • Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg (ger.1)84.1%
  • Molde v Aalesund (nor.1)84.1%
  • Hamburg SV v FC Cologne (ger.1)83.5%
  • VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund (ger.1)83.5%
  • Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen (ned.1)83.5%
  • Willem II v Fortuna Sittard (ned.1)83.5%
  • Paris FC v Strasbourg (fra.1)82.9%
  • AS Roma v Internazionale (ita.1)82.9%
  • Royal Charleroi SC v Cercle Brugge KSV (bel.1)82.9%
  • Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem (bel.1)82.9%
  • Diosgyori VTK v Gyirmot SE (af.hungary)82.9%
  • Lommel SK v KV Mechelen (bel.1)82.6%

Double Chance 12

#T87WAW · 16.1% combined

Started with 391 games today → ended with 8 on the card.

33 candidates surveyed; 7 make the card. Key cuts: Arsenal v Man Utd (H2H 3 draws in 5, shrunk 61.5% — well below bar); Örgryte v Sirius (home draws 60% of home games, shrunk 55.6% — can't hold); Istanbul Basaksehir (suffered 5-0 in prior match, 1 point in 4 games despite good H2H); Legia II v Podhale (sole H2H was a draw, H2H shrunk 66.7%); Tepatitlán v Mineros (H2H shrunk 61.5%, 3 draws in 5 H2H meetings).
391
Games happening today
353(90% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −38 too little match history for one or both sides
96(27% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −257 below 78% on the plain statistical model
33(34% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −63 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
33(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
8(24% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −25 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
8(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (7)

  • GKS Katowice v Cracovia Krakow82%
    λ≈2.25 home, 0.65 away. GKS has fewest draws in Ekstraklasa; home 9/10 decisive. H2H 4/4 decisive (shrunk 83.3%). Cracovia in 3-match losing run and draws heavily away (5/10 draws away). No dead-rubber — both sides pushing in mid-table. Pick holds.
  • Chelsea v Birmingham City81%
    λ≈2.48 home, 1.85 away. Chelsea coming off 5-0 rout of Man Utd; Birmingham newly promoted back to WSL after 4-year absence. H2H 5-0 decisive series (shrunk 84.6%, all from 2021-22 so mild staleness discounted). Chelsea home 9/10 decisive and now at Stamford Bridge full-time. No motivation concern.
  • Palermo v Padova80%
    duplicate — placeholder removed
  • Orlando Pride v Portland Thorns FC79%
    λ≈1.95 home, 1.40 away. Orlando home 10/10 decisive (shrunk 88.9%). H2H 5/5 decisive (shrunk 84.6%). Portland 6th (11-6-7), Orlando 11th (9-3-12) — Portland have playoff motivation, Orlando's home perfect decisive record is the anchor. Late-season, no dead-rubber concern.
  • ADO Den Haag v SC Cambuur79%
    λ≈2.05 home, 1.50 away. H2H 5/5 decisive (Cambuur leads series 5-0, shrunk 84.6%). Both newly promoted to Eredivisie. ADO bottom (0W in 6); draw risk elevated since both sides are desperate — adjusted down from raw 78.7 — but decisive H2H carries this just above bar. Cambuur not drawing either (1 draw in last 14 H2H overall).
  • Diosgyori VTK v Gyirmot SE78%
    λ≈1.0 home, 2.2 away. Gyirmot away 10/10 decisive (shrunk 88.9%); Diosgyori in NB II after relegation, coaching chaos (third coach in weeks), 0W in recent run. Home draws heavily (3/10 draws, shrunk 72.2%). H2H shrunk 76.9%. Gyirmot away dominance is the primary driver; held at floor, genuine away-win lean.
  • IF Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg78%
    λ≈2.10 home, 1.50 away. H2H 5/5 decisive (GOT leads 3-2, shrunk 84.6%). Göteborg away 8/10 decisive (shrunk 77.8%). Brommapojkarna home only 7/10 decisive (shrunk 72.2%) is the main caveat — priced in by holding at floor. No dead-rubber; both mid-table.

Researched but cut (24)

  • Arsenal v Manchester United70%
    Arsenal v Man Utd WSL: H2H has 3 draws in last 5 meetings (including two 0-0s), shrunk H2H rate only 61.5%. Both top-4 sides with full motivation — not a dead-rubber, but high draw propensity specific to this fixture well below bar.
  • Örgryte IS v IK Sirius72%
    Örgryte v Sirius: Örgryte draws 6 of 10 home games; home shrunk rate only 55.6%. Even though Sirius leads table (42 pts) and away shrunk 83.3%, the home draw-magnet is too strong to hold above 78%.
  • Istanbul Basaksehir v Genclerbirligi74%
    Istanbul Basaksehir v Genclerbirligi: Basaksehir suffered 5-0 humiliation last week, picked up 1 point in 4 games — massive form collapse contradicts longer-term home λ. H2H all decisive but current season home form (7/10 decisive, shrunk 72.2%) and poor run can't support bar.
  • Legia Warszawa II v Podhale Nowy Targ74%
    Legia Warszawa II v Podhale: Home 10/10 decisive (shrunk 88.9%) looks attractive but sole H2H was a draw (shrunk 66.7%), and Podhale away 9/10 decisive slightly undermines home dominance. One meeting ended 2-2 — not enough history to trust.
  • Tepatitlán FC v Mineros de Zacatecas73%
    Tepatitlán v Mineros: H2H 3 draws in 5 meetings (shrunk 61.5%). Despite decent home form (9/10 decisive), the specific fixture draw propensity is disqualifying.
  • Millonarios v Boyacá Chicó FC73%
    Millonarios v Boyacá Chicó: Home shrunk only 66.7% (6 decisive in 10), plenty of 0-0s and low-scoring stalemates in home results. Colombian football at this time produces draws; can't hold above bar.
  • Molde v Aalesund77%
    Molde v Aalesund: Credible pick but H2H shrunk 76.9% (1 draw in last 5), Aalesund away only 7/10 decisive. Marginal and displaced by stronger picks.
  • Forest Green Rovers v Boston United77%
    Forest Green v Boston United: H2H has 1 draw in 4 (shrunk 75%); Boston away 7/10 decisive. Reasonable but below other picks on confidence.
  • Tamworth v Wealdstone77%
    Tamworth v Wealdstone: H2H shrunk 75% (1 draw in 4), marginal displacement by stronger picks.
  • Žilina v AS Trencin76%
    Žilina v AS Trencin: No H2H data; both home/away shrunk at 77.8%; at 78.2 raw, too thin to trust without H2H confirmation.
  • FK Košice v Ružomberok77%
    FK Košice v Ružomberok: No H2H (never met). Home 82.4% and away 88.9% shrunk look good, but the home form includes a 2-7 hammering; displaced.
  • Lommel SK v KV Mechelen76%
    Lommel v KV Mechelen: Home venue only 4 matches (n=4 shrunk 83.3% but tiny sample); no H2H history. Lommel home draw risk not fully modeled.
  • Ştefăneşti v Metaloglobus76%
    Ştefăneşti v Metaloglobus: Home shrunk 77.8% (barely), no H2H. Romanian lower-league data quality concern.
  • FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus76%
    FC Tokyo v Nagoya: H2H shrunk 76.9% (1 draw in 5 recent), home shrunk 83.3% but J-League match with modest confidence margin below stronger candidates.
  • FC Bacau v Cetatea Suceava76%
    FC Bacau v Cetatea Suceava: No H2H; Romanian lower division, data quality thin.
  • Kisvarda FC v Paks76%
    Kisvarda v Paks: H2H 23 meetings — 5 draws in 23 = 78.3% decisive (shrunk 77.4%); barely at floor with thin margin and Kisvarda home-draw tendency (3 draws in 10 home games).
  • Independiente Petrolero v San Antonio Bulo Bulo75%
    Independiente Petrolero v Bulo Bulo: H2H Bulo leads 3-1-1 with 1 draw; Petrolero home 8/10 decisive but shrunk 77.8%. Bolivian football with altitude factor.
  • Atlético-MG v Chapecoense72%
    Atlético-MG v Chapecoense: H2H shrunk 69.2% (2 draws in 5), home shrunk 72.2%. Too many draws in the fixture history.
  • FC Cajamarca v Cusco FC75%
    FC Cajamarca v Cusco: Home shrunk 72.2% (3 draws in 10 home). Peruvian football, thin H2H (1 game only, shrunk 77.8%).
  • Union Plaani v Reipas77%
    Union Plaani v Reipas: H2H only 2 meetings (1-1 series), shrunk 80% but tiny sample in Finnish lower division. Competitive pick but displaced.
  • HJS Akatemia v P-Iirot77%
    HJS Akatemia v P-Iirot: H2H shrunk 78.9% (11 meetings, 2 draws in 11). Home only 9/10 decisive; away P-Iirot draws 4/10. Marginal.
  • Lechia Zielona Góra v Znicz Pruszków74%
    Lechia Zielona Góra v Znicz Pruszków: No H2H, home shrunk 72.2% (3 draws in 10 home). Never met — too many unknowns.
  • Piratas v Venados FC76%
    Piratas v Venados: Home only 3 matches (n=3, heavily shrunk to 81.8%), no H2H. Too thin a sample to trust home advantage.
  • Livingston v Inverness Caledonian Thistle73%
    Livingston v Inverness: Home only 5/10 decisive (shrunk 61.1%) — very draw-prone home side. ICT leads H2H series 4-1. Unsuitable for DC12.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (33)
  • GKS Katowice v Cracovia Krakow (af.poland)83%
  • Lommel SK v KV Mechelen (bel.1)81.7%
  • Chelsea v Birmingham City (eng.w.1)80.9%
  • Ştefăneşti v Metaloglobus (af.romania)80.8%
  • Diosgyori VTK v Gyirmot SE (af.hungary)80.6%
  • Forest Green Rovers v Boston United (eng.5)79.6%
  • Palermo v Padova (ita.2)79.3%
  • Piratas v Venados FC (mex.2)79.2%
  • Molde v Aalesund (nor.1)79.2%
  • FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus (jpn.1)79.1%
  • IF Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg (swe.1)79%
  • FC Cajamarca v Cusco FC (per.1)79%
  • Union Plaani v Reipas (af.finland)79%
  • Ajax Amsterdam v Excelsior (ned.1)78.9%
  • ADO Den Haag v SC Cambuur (ned.1)78.7%
  • Örgryte IS v IK Sirius (swe.1)78.7%
  • Millonarios v Boyacá Chicó FC (col.1)78.7%
  • Kisvarda FC v Paks (af.hungary)78.7%
  • FK Košice v Ružomberok (af.slovakia)78.7%
  • Independiente Petrolero v San Antonio Bulo Bulo (bol.1)78.5%
  • Arsenal v Manchester United (eng.w.1)78.5%
  • Tamworth v Wealdstone (eng.5)78.4%
  • Atlético-MG v Chapecoense (bra.1)78.3%
  • FC Bacau v Cetatea Suceava (af.romania)78.3%
  • Lechia Zielona Góra v Znicz Pruszków (af.poland)78.2%
  • Žilina v AS Trencin (af.slovakia)78.2%
  • Tepatitlán FC v Mineros de Zacatecas (mex.2)78.1%
  • Istanbul Basaksehir v Genclerbirligi (tur.1)78.1%
  • Boreham Wood v Harrogate Town (eng.5)78%
  • Livingston v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (sco.2)78%
  • Orlando Pride v Portland Thorns FC (usa.nwsl)78%
  • Legia Warszawa II v Podhale Nowy Targ (af.poland)78%
  • HJS Akatemia v P-Iirot (af.finland)78%