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Over 1.5

#XXBMT2 · 23.1% combined

Started with 291 games today → ended with 8 on the card.

35 candidates shortlisted (all cleared 78% on raw Poisson), 8 made the card after research. Notable cuts: Paderborn-Hoffenheim, Soroksar-Tiszakecske, Arminia-Heidenheim, AZ Alkmaar-Telstar, Cancun-Alebrijes, Cottbus-St Pauli, Charleston-Monterey Bay, Boston Legacy-Houston Dash (h2h shrunk well below raw model); Almeria-Celta Fortuna, Crystal Palace(W)-Spurs(W) (samples too thin to trust); Celtic-Rangers (Rangers missing both strikers) and Houston Dynamo-Cincinnati (home side defensively solid); NE Revolution-Orlando City and Leverkusen-Leipzig (real attacking absences priced in, still cleared bar but bumped by deeper-sample picks).
291
Games happening today
245(84% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −46 too little match history for one or both sides
111(45% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −134 below 78% on the plain statistical model
66(59% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −45 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
35(53% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
↓ −31 trimmed by the 35-per-day research limit
8(23% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −27 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
8(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (8)

  • Ujpest v Zalaegerszegi TE85%
    λ≈3.8; largest h2h sample here (27 games, 85.7% shrunk) matches Ujpest's home scoring (2.1 gf/pg) vs Zalaegerszegi's leaky road defense (2.5 ga/pg), no adverse news found.
  • Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union84%
    λ≈3.85; Union unbeaten in 10 domestic games on a 4-game win streak, SKC just snapped a 7-game winless run with a 3-1 win - both attacks trending up.
  • Monterrey v Cruz Azul84%
    λ≈3.4; general Cruz Azul injury chatter found but no specific starters confirmed out, kept at the shrunk blend of 85.6%.
  • Skalica v Podbrezová83%
    λ≈3.6, backed by a 14-game h2h at 81.8% shrunk; standings confirm Skalica (8th, relegation round) are leaking goals while Podbrezova (5th, championship round) keep scoring.
  • FC Dallas v Austin FC83%
    λ≈3.5; 5-game h2h shrunk to 84.6% and both venue splits over 83%, no current-week injury news found for either side.
  • Viking FK v Lillestrom83%
    λ≈3.35; Viking's absentees (Roseth, Berisha) don't touch top scorer Christiansen, Lillestrom's Tripic (4G/13A) is fit - 2nd vs 4th, both scoring freely.
  • Sportivo Luqueño v Deportivo Recoleta82%
    λ≈3.6; h2h shrinks to 69.2% off two stale 0-0s, but this season Luqueno are over 2.5 in 6/8 games and Recoleta 7/8 (league's highest) - trusting current form over the old h2h.
  • NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles82%
    λ≈3.15; no adverse news found, Go Ahead unbeaten in last 5 meetings and both venue splits plus h2h (84.6% shrunk) agree.

Researched but cut (27)

  • Nesebar v Beroe80%
    Never met before (no h2h) and no independent news exists for Bulgarian second tier to verify the raw 91.5% - discounted for unverifiable data quality.
  • SC Paderborn 07 v TSG Hoffenheim76%
    h2h shrunk only 61.5% (avg 1.4 goals across last 5, stale) - meaningfully diverges from raw 91.2%, drops below bar.
  • New England Revolution v Orlando City SC81%
    Revs missing Harrison (quad) and Yusuf (hamstring) for 6+ weeks; discounted from raw 90.5% to 81% - clears bar but bumped by deeper-sample picks.
  • Club Brugge v Racing Genk79%
    No fresh team news found either way; shrunk average (79.3%) already thin, edged out by higher-confidence picks.
  • Soroksar v Tiszakecske FC75%
    h2h shrunk only 63.1% across 11 meetings (raw over15 just 54.5%) - clear divergence below bar.
  • Celtic v Rangers79%
    Rangers missing both first-choice strikers (Shankland ~4mo, Chermiti ACL) plus a winger; Celtic's own home scoring (2.8 gf/pg, beat Rangers 3-0 a week earlier) covers the total-goals line regardless, but average shrunk (77.5%) stays below the top-8 cutoff.
  • Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur76%
    Home venue sample is only 4 games spanning two seasons for a newly-promoted side, no team news available for this competition - too thin to trust above bar.
  • Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig81%
    Both sides missing multiple attackers (Leverkusen: Maza, Tella; Leipzig: Nusa, Ouedraogo); discounted from 85.6% blend to 81% - clears bar but bumped by top 8.
  • Almería v RC Celta Fortuna74%
    Away split is only 2 games (flagged thin) and there's no h2h at all - nowhere near enough signal to trust.
  • Brinje-Grosuplje v Radomlje77%
    Slovenian second-tier fixture with no meaningful independent coverage to verify the model; held below bar.
  • D.C. United v Charlotte FC78%
    Solid shrunk average (79.3%) but not individually researched given lower raw-probability rank relative to verified picks; left off the card.
  • Arminia Bielefeld v 1. FC Heidenheim 184675%
    h2h shrunk only 69.2% (raw over15 just 60% across 5 meetings back to 2018) - below bar.
  • FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven80%
    PSV missing 6 squad players (Plea, Ouaissa, Schouten, Lammers, Nagalo, Sildillia) but still won 4-1 last time out showing squad depth compensates; solid at 80% but ranks below the top 8.
  • Charleston Battery v Monterey Bay74%
    h2h shrunk only 60% (2 meetings, avg total just 0.5 goals) - small but sharply negative sample.
  • Club Jaiba Brava v Dorados de Sinaloa78%
    Liga de Expansion MX fixture with minimal independent coverage to verify; not among the researched top-tier picks.
  • AZ Alkmaar v Telstar76%
    h2h shrunk only 66.7% (recent meetings tight 1-0 games) - below the venue-based figures.
  • Club Atlético Morelia v Leones Negros80%
    Only stale (April 2026) standings reference found, no current-week team news for this thinly-covered league - strong shrunk average (83.8%) not fully trusted, discounted to 80%.
  • TSV Hartberg v LASK Linz78%
    Not individually researched given lower raw-probability rank; shrunk average sits right at the bar, left off the card.
  • Villarreal v Levante78%
    Not individually researched; shrunk average (79.3%) right at the bar, edged out by better-verified picks.
  • KV Kortrijk v Waasland-Beveren79%
    Both venue splits are only 3 games each and h2h is stale (2019-2021); Kortrijk's 6-game losing streak points the right way but the samples are too thin to rank in the top 8.
  • Cancún FC v Alebrijes de Oaxaca77%
    h2h shrunk only 69.2% across 5 meetings (avg total just 1.8 goals) - drags the average below bar.
  • Feyenoord Rotterdam v FC Utrecht81%
    Utrecht's three injured players have return windows ending Sept 11-12 and should be back; solid at 81% but ranks below the top 8 given stronger, larger-sample alternatives.
  • Houston Dynamo FC v FC Cincinnati74%
    Home shrunk rate only 61.1% - Dynamo have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 home games, real defensive solidity working against the total-goals line.
  • Energie Cottbus v St. Pauli75%
    h2h shrunk 69.2% off a badly stale sample (newest meeting 2014); combined average sits below bar.
  • Boston Legacy FC v Houston Dash76%
    h2h is a single match - essentially no historical signal - and combined average sits just below bar.
  • Nyiregyhaza v Ferencvarosi TC81%
    Season goal averages (Ferencvaros 2.08, Nyiregyhaza 1.35 per match) support the over and no red flags found, but ranks below the top-8 cutoff set by larger-sample/more-verified picks.
  • Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa77%
    Not individually researched (women's fixture, lower raw-probability rank); shrunk average sits at the bar itself, left off the card.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (35)
  • Nesebar v Beroe (af.bulgaria)91.5%
  • SC Paderborn 07 v TSG Hoffenheim (ger.1)91.2%
  • New England Revolution v Orlando City SC (usa.1)90.5%
  • Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union (usa.1)89.7%
  • Club Brugge v Racing Genk (bel.1)89.3%
  • Ujpest v Zalaegerszegi TE (af.hungary)89.3%
  • Soroksar v Tiszakecske FC (af.hungary)88.4%
  • Skalica v Podbrezová (af.slovakia)87.8%
  • Celtic v Rangers (sco.1)87.4%
  • Sportivo Luqueño v Deportivo Recoleta (par.1)87.4%
  • Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur (eng.w.1)87.2%
  • Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig (ger.1)86.9%
  • FC Dallas v Austin FC (usa.1)86.4%
  • Almería v RC Celta Fortuna (esp.2)86.4%
  • Brinje-Grosuplje v Radomlje (af.slovenia)86.4%
  • D.C. United v Charlotte FC (usa.1)85.9%
  • Arminia Bielefeld v 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (ger.2)85.9%
  • FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven (ned.1)85.9%
  • Charleston Battery v Monterey Bay (usa.usl.1)85.3%
  • Club Jaiba Brava v Dorados de Sinaloa (mex.2)85.3%
  • Monterrey v Cruz Azul (mex.1)85.3%
  • AZ Alkmaar v Telstar (ned.1)85.3%
  • Club Atlético Morelia v Leones Negros (mex.2)84.7%
  • TSV Hartberg v LASK Linz (aut.1)84.7%
  • Viking FK v Lillestrom (nor.1)84.7%
  • Villarreal v Levante (esp.1)84.7%
  • KV Kortrijk v Waasland-Beveren (bel.1)84.5%
  • Cancún FC v Alebrijes de Oaxaca (mex.2)84.1%
  • Feyenoord Rotterdam v FC Utrecht (ned.1)84.1%
  • Houston Dynamo FC v FC Cincinnati (usa.1)83.5%
  • Energie Cottbus v St. Pauli (ger.2)83.5%
  • Boston Legacy FC v Houston Dash (usa.nwsl)83.5%
  • Nyiregyhaza v Ferencvarosi TC (af.hungary)83.5%
  • Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa (eng.w.1)82.9%
  • NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles (ned.1)82.2%

Double Chance 12

#SSB7D6 · 16.1% combined

Started with 291 games today → ended with 8 on the card.

32 shortlisted candidates surveyed; 8 cleared 78% after adjustment. Most cuts came from hidden draw-proneness the raw Poisson model missed: several 'blowout H2H' picks (Brugge-Genk 5-0, Villarreal-Levante 4-1) actually have away sides drawing ~40% of recent away games once shrunk; Bucaramanga, Bielefeld, AZ, Leverkusen and Feyenoord all draw 40-50% of games at the exact venue in play; Lech-Radomiak and Hartberg-LASK are h2h-specific draw magnets (45-60% draws in that exact fixture); Celtic-Rangers cut for Old Firm volatility (h2h shrunk to 69%); Brinje-Grosuplje cut because its home split is contaminated with non-domestic opponents (Dinamo Zagreb, HNK Rijeka); a handful of MLS/Liga MX ties (Jaiba Brava, Cancun, Dallas, New England, Morelia) landed just short at 77 after shrinkage.
291
Games happening today
245(84% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −46 too little match history for one or both sides
52(21% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −193 below 78% on the plain statistical model
32(62% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −20 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
32(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
8(25% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −24 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
8(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (8)

  • Viking FK v Lillestrom82%
    λ≈2.4 home, 0.95 away. Viking unbeaten league leaders (10-0-2) host a solid Lillestrøm (8-1-4); away shrunk dips to 72% but home (89%) and H2H (85%, series 4-1) offset it, no European/relegation complication either side.
  • Skalica v Podbrezová81%
    λ≈2.05 home, 1.59 away in a high-event Slovak Super Liga clash. Home/away/H2H shrunk rates (88/89/82%) all exceed the raw 78.7% model, both mid-table with nothing hanging over the game.
  • Soroksar v Tiszakecske FC80%
    λ≈2.4 home, 1.3 away. NB II's 1st vs 2nd, both mid promotion push with real points on the line. Home shrunk 89%, H2H 79%; away dips to 72% but Tiszakecske ship 2.1 ga/pg on the road, cutting repeat-stalemate odds.
  • Mantova v Pisa80%
    λ≈2.05 home, 0.6 away. Mantova top Serie B at home; Pisa fresh off Serie A relegation and still shipping 2.2 ga/pg on the road. The 69% H2H shrunk figure leans on two stale 2008-09 legs, so priced off the much larger current-season venue splits (83% both sides) instead.
  • SC Paderborn 07 v TSG Hoffenheim79%
    λ≈2.4 home, 1.65 away. Newly-promoted Paderborn host Bundesliga mainstay Hoffenheim. H2H is flagged stale (last meeting 2020, oldest leg 2008) and shrinks to 69%, so priced off the far more relevant 2026 venue splits (78% both sides) instead.
  • Nesebar v Beroe79%
    λ≈3.1 home, 1.0 away. Nesebar's home scoring is extreme (4.4 gf/pg) but Beroe's away not-draw rate shrinks hard to 72% (2 draws, 3 losses in last 10) against a raw model implying 88% -- priced the number down to that real gap rather than the raw split.
  • Nyiregyhaza v Ferencvarosi TC78%
    λ≈1.3 home, 1.95 away. Ferencváros are 3 days removed from a Europa League trip to Celtic, trimming confidence slightly on turnaround, but their away not-draw rate still shrinks to 83% and they've lost this h2h series only once in 9.
  • Torpedo Vladimir v Iskra Smolensk78%
    λ≈2.1 home, 0.85 away. Iskra sit 14th and relegation-bound with a -25 goal difference and 3.0 ga/pg away; home shrunk dips to 72% but Iskra's leaky travel defense makes a repeat stalemate the bigger stretch, not a draw.

Researched but cut (23)

  • Club Brugge v Racing Genk75%
    Genk draw ~40% of recent away games (0-0, 4-4, 1-1, 0-0) despite a perfect 5-0 H2H streak; away shrunk crashes to 61%.
  • Villarreal v Levante75%
    Levante draw 40% of recent away games (three 0-0s) despite a lopsided 4-1 H2H; away shrunk falls to 67%.
  • Lech Poznan v Radomiak Radom76%
    This exact h2h fixture has drawn 5 of the last 11 meetings (45%); h2h shrunk to 63% on real, non-thin sample.
  • AZ Alkmaar v Telstar74%
    AZ have drawn 4 of their last 10 home games (40%), confirmed by their 1-1 vs Willem II ending a perfect start; home shrunk crashes to 67%.
  • Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig74%
    Leverkusen have drawn 4 of their last 10 home games (40%); home shrunk crashes to 67% despite strong away number for Leipzig.
  • Atlético Bucaramanga v Internacional de Bogotá73%
    Bucaramanga have drawn 5 of their last 10 home games (50%); home shrunk crashes to 61%.
  • Arminia Bielefeld v 1. FC Heidenheim 184673%
    Arminia Bielefeld have drawn 5 of their last 10 home games (50%); home shrunk crashes to 61%.
  • Feyenoord Rotterdam v FC Utrecht74%
    Feyenoord have drawn 4 of their last 10 home games (40%); home shrunk crashes to 67%.
  • TSV Hartberg v LASK Linz74%
    This exact h2h fixture has drawn 3 of the last 5 meetings (60%); h2h shrunk to 62%.
  • Celtic v Rangers76%
    Old Firm rivalry intensity historically produces tight, cagey results; h2h shrunk to only 69% despite a recent cup blowout.
  • Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union75%
    H2H has drawn 2 of the last 5 meetings (40%), h2h shrunk to 69%; neither side has a clear form edge right now.
  • Rubin Kazan W v Yenisey W75%
    All three shrunk components (home 72%, away 83% vs Rubin favored, h2h 73%) diverge meaningfully below the raw 80.6% with no offsetting motivation story -- Rubin Kazan W are only mid-table (9th).
  • Houston Dynamo FC v FC Cincinnati73%
    Cincinnati have drawn 5 of their last 10 away games (50%); away shrunk crashes to 61%.
  • Club Jaiba Brava v Dorados de Sinaloa77%
    Modest shrunk gaps across the board leave it just short of the top 8; no negative news, simply edged out.
  • De Graafschap v NAC Breda76%
    This exact h2h fixture has drawn 2 of the last 5 meetings (40%); h2h shrunk to 69%.
  • Ujpest v Zalaegerszegi TE74%
    Ujpest have drawn 4 of their last 10 home games (40%); home shrunk crashes to 67%.
  • Cancún FC v Alebrijes de Oaxaca77%
    Modest shrunk gaps across the board leave it just short of the top 8; no negative news, simply edged out.
  • FC Dallas v Austin FC77%
    Modest shrunk gaps across the board leave it just short of the top 8; no negative news, simply edged out.
  • New England Revolution v Orlando City SC77%
    Modest shrunk gaps across the board leave it just short of the top 8; no negative news, simply edged out.
  • Almería v RC Celta Fortuna76%
    Away sample for Celta Fortuna is thin (n=2, flagged); not enough signal to trust once properly discounted.
  • Club Atlético Morelia v Leones Negros77%
    Modest shrunk gaps across the board leave it just short of the top 8; no negative news, simply edged out.
  • Brinje-Grosuplje v Radomlje74%
    Home venue split is contaminated with what appear to be cup/friendly results against foreign clubs (Dinamo Zagreb, HNK Rijeka, Corvinul Hunedoara) rather than clean domestic league form, undermining confidence in the split.
  • Sportivo Luqueño v Deportivo Recoleta76%
    This exact h2h fixture has drawn 2 of the last 5 meetings (40%); h2h shrunk to 69%, and raw_p was already right at the floor (78.1) before discounting.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (32)
  • Nesebar v Beroe (af.bulgaria)87.6%
  • Charleston Battery v Monterey Bay (usa.usl.1)83.7%
  • Viking FK v Lillestrom (nor.1)82.6%
  • Lech Poznan v Radomiak Radom (af.poland)82.6%
  • Club Brugge v Racing Genk (bel.1)82.5%
  • Villarreal v Levante (esp.1)81.3%
  • Mantova v Pisa (ita.2)81.2%
  • Soroksar v Tiszakecske FC (af.hungary)81.2%
  • SC Paderborn 07 v TSG Hoffenheim (ger.1)80.6%
  • Rubin Kazan W v Yenisey W (af.russia)80.6%
  • Houston Dynamo FC v FC Cincinnati (usa.1)80.5%
  • Club Jaiba Brava v Dorados de Sinaloa (mex.2)80.5%
  • AZ Alkmaar v Telstar (ned.1)80.5%
  • Torpedo Vladimir v Iskra Smolensk (af.russia)80.3%
  • De Graafschap v NAC Breda (ned.2)80.2%
  • Ujpest v Zalaegerszegi TE (af.hungary)80.2%
  • Cancún FC v Alebrijes de Oaxaca (mex.2)79.7%
  • Arminia Bielefeld v 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (ger.2)79.5%
  • FC Dallas v Austin FC (usa.1)79.4%
  • Celtic v Rangers (sco.1)79.3%
  • New England Revolution v Orlando City SC (usa.1)79.2%
  • Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union (usa.1)79.1%
  • Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig (ger.1)79%
  • Almería v RC Celta Fortuna (esp.2)79%
  • Atlético Bucaramanga v Internacional de Bogotá (col.1)79%
  • Club Atlético Morelia v Leones Negros (mex.2)78.7%
  • TSV Hartberg v LASK Linz (aut.1)78.7%
  • Skalica v Podbrezová (af.slovakia)78.7%
  • Brinje-Grosuplje v Radomlje (af.slovenia)78.4%
  • Sportivo Luqueño v Deportivo Recoleta (par.1)78.1%
  • Feyenoord Rotterdam v FC Utrecht (ned.1)78%
  • Nyiregyhaza v Ferencvarosi TC (af.hungary)78%