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Over 1.5

#LS0F09 · 62.9% combined

Started with 405 games today → ended with 3 on the card.

27 candidates shortlisted, 3 made the card; most cuts had one side's shrunk rate at or below ~78%, and several raw rates were propped up by lower-division or stale samples (Holywell, Barbados venue switch, Colo Colo cup second leg after a 0-0 first leg).
405
Games happening today
398(98% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −7 too little match history for one or both sides
175(44% kept)
Our model likes it (82%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −223 below 82% on the plain statistical model
27(15% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −148 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
27(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
3(11% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −24 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
3(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (3)

  • Stockport County v Peterborough United87%
    λ≈3.55. Stockport are League One's top scorers (16 in 7) and unchanged with no new injuries; managerless Posh sit 23rd with a leaky defence, 8 players out, and played a Trophy tie on Tuesday (congestion flag confirmed). H2H is 5/5 over 1.5 (shrunk 84.6). Slightly below raw 87.6 because Posh's injured forwards cut their share of the goals.
  • Järfälla v AFC Eskilstuna85%
    λ≈3.80. The 5-0 over Karlberg came against a mid-table side (9th) and broke a 7-game losing run, so it's real form, not a fluke. Järfälla leak 2.7/g at home, while AFC Eskilstuna are 10 unbeaten (28/30 pts) and scored in all 10 away games. Trimmed from raw 89.8 to the shrunk ~89 on both sides and a one-meeting H2H (1-1).
  • Cardiff MET v Caernarfon Town85%
    λ≈3.60. 25-meeting H2H averages 3.24 goals, 84% over 1.5. 'Free-scoring' Caernarfon (5th) cleared 1.5 in all 10 away games, and the Ammanford 5-0 isn't what carries that rate. Cardiff Met (7th) have no special stakes; trimmed from raw 88.1 toward shrunk home 83.3.

Researched but cut (24)

  • Holywell v Briton Ferry81%
    Holywell's 10/10 home rate leans on Cymru North blowouts (6-0 Newtown, 5-1 Denbigh). Promoted to the Cymru Premier, they are bottom (0W, 1 pt) and average about 1.2 goals at home; Briton Ferry score 1.0/g away (shrunk 77.8). Recomputed λ≈3.1.
  • Barbados v St. Lucia79%
    Match is played at the Daren Sammy Ground in St Lucia, so Barbados' 'home' split doesn't apply. Barbados' home data is 15+ months old, it's a Nations League opener, and all shrunk rates are about 82 before that correction.
  • Sporting JAX v Loudoun United FC82%
    Both sides are effectively out of the USL Championship playoffs (Loudoun 10th and on a 3-loss run, JAX 13th), so low stakes means elevated_stakes_risk and an 87 bar. Loudoun score 0.7/g away (shrunk 72.2).
  • Vänersborgs FK v Husqvarna81%
    Vänersborg home shrunk 77.8 with 1-0/0-1 results. Husqvarna's promotion push plus the Kumla 6-2 lifts their away rate; the honest number sits on the bar.
  • HFX Wanderers FC v Atlético Ottawa81%
    HFX home shrunk 72.2 (3 clean sheets). HFX are 5th and must win to reach the CPL top four, while Ottawa are 3rd: playoff-race tension. H2H 85% only partly offsets that.
  • B 93 v Thisted FC76%
    8-meeting H2H averages 1.25 goals, 50% over 1.5 (shrunk 62.5). Thisted's away rate is inflated by a 9-1 cup win over Aabybro.
  • Rosengård v Hässleholms IF81%
    Hässleholm (2nd, Superettan promotion race) have conceded 1.0/g away; the last three meetings produced 2, 2 and 1 goals. H2H shrunk 80.
  • Trollhättan v Tvååker77%
    Tvååker away shrunk 66.7 (6/10) and H2H 73.9; Trollhättan's rate helped by a 5-0 over Utsikten.
  • Laholm v Atvidabergs FF78%
    Laholm home shrunk 72.2 with 0-0/1-0 results; one-meeting H2H.
  • Holstebro v Ishøj76%
    Ishøj score 0.7/g away (shrunk 72.2); H2H 50% over 1.5 (shrunk 66.7).
  • Cavalry FC v Supra du Quebec79%
    Cavalry concede 0.6/g at home (4 clean sheets); the 3 meetings this season produced 1, 2 and 3 goals (shrunk 72.7); late-season CPL playoff stakes.
  • Colo Colo v Audax Italiano74%
    Copa Chile round-of-16 second leg after a 0-0 first leg on 22 Sep (confirmed): knockout decider, so elevated stakes and an 87 bar. Audax away shrunk 66.7.
  • Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Leones Negros79%
    Cruz Azul Hidalgo only rejoined Liga de Expansión in July, so the home sample is n=4 and includes a 6-0; H2H stale (2012-14) at 60%.
  • Boston United v AFC Fylde78%
    Boston home shrunk 66.7 (6/10); Fylde away sample only n=5.
  • Tlaxcala FC v Cancún FC79%
    H2H 60% over 1.5 (shrunk 69.2), with 1-0 and 1-1 results at Tlaxcala.
  • Flint Town United v Ammanford AFC81%
    Never met. Promoted Ammanford's 10/10 away rate is half Cymru South games; Flint home shrunk 77.8.
  • Aldershot Town v Tamworth79%
    Aldershot score 0.8/g at home (shrunk 72.2).
  • Sollentuna v Stockholm Internazionale79%
    Stockholm Internazionale kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 away; Sollentuna score 1.2/g at home; the last two meetings were 1-1 and 1-0.
  • Šamorín v Lokomotíva Zvolen79%
    Zvolen (last season's runners-up) drew half their away games; H2H 67% (shrunk 71.4); Šamorín's rate helped by a 7-0 over Senec.
  • Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient76%
    Orient kept 5 clean sheets in 10 away (shrunk 66.7); the latest meeting was 0-0.
  • Granada v FC Andorra74%
    H2H averages 1.25 goals, 50% over 1.5; both sides shrunk 72.2.
  • Skövde AIK v Olympic79%
    Both venue rates shrunk 77.8; Olympic's concession rate is carried by a 1-7 at Lund.
  • Barry Town v GAP Connah S Quay FC77%
    Both venue rates shrunk 72.2; 27-meeting H2H only 74%, with a 0-0 and a 1-0 in the last three at Barry.
  • Southend United v Barrow77%
    Barrow score 0.8/g away; H2H stale (2021) and 50%.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (27)
  • Järfälla v AFC Eskilstuna (af.sweden)89.8%
  • Holywell v Briton Ferry (af.wales)89.5%
  • Barbados v St. Lucia (concacaf.nations.league)89.1%
  • Sporting JAX v Loudoun United FC (usa.usl.1)88.6%
  • Vänersborgs FK v Husqvarna (af.sweden)88.1%
  • Cardiff MET v Caernarfon Town (af.wales)88.1%
  • Stockport County v Peterborough United (eng.3)87.6%
  • HFX Wanderers FC v Atlético Ottawa (af.canada)87.6%
  • B 93 v Thisted FC (af.denmark)86.6%
  • Rosengård v Hässleholms IF (af.sweden)86.1%
  • Trollhättan v Tvååker (af.sweden)86.1%
  • Laholm v Atvidabergs FF (af.sweden)86.1%
  • Holstebro v Ishøj (af.denmark)86%
  • Cavalry FC v Supra du Quebec (af.canada)85.5%
  • Colo Colo v Audax Italiano (chi.copa_chi)85.4%
  • Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Leones Negros (mex.2)85.2%
  • Boston United v AFC Fylde (eng.5)84.9%
  • Tlaxcala FC v Cancún FC (mex.2)84.9%
  • Flint Town United v Ammanford AFC (af.wales)84.3%
  • Aldershot Town v Tamworth (eng.5)83.7%
  • Sollentuna v Stockholm Internazionale (af.sweden)83.6%
  • Šamorín v Lokomotíva Zvolen (af.slovakia)83%
  • Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient (eng.3)82.4%
  • Granada v FC Andorra (esp.2)82.4%
  • Skövde AIK v Olympic (af.sweden)82.4%
  • Barry Town v GAP Connah S Quay FC (af.wales)82.4%
  • Southend United v Barrow (eng.5)82.3%

Double Chance 12

#GEJLZR · 84% combined

Started with 405 games today → ended with 1 on the card.

11 candidates surveyed, 1 made the card (Charlton v Man City, re-priced up because the home sample is mostly WSL2); the two raw-81+ legs were cut on stakes/H2H draw evidence (Gotham: Chicago settled mid-table, 2 of 5 H2H drawn 0-0; Järfälla: relegation fight, only H2H a 1-1), Colo Colo is the 2nd leg of a tie level at 0-0, and the rest sit under 81 with no evidence to raise them.
405
Games happening today
398(98% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −7 too little match history for one or both sides
84(21% kept)
Our model likes it (81%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −314 below 81% on the plain statistical model
11(13% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −73 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
11(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
1(9% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −10 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
1(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (1)

  • Charlton Athletic v Manchester City84%
    Raw λ≈1.63 home is inflated by WSL2 games (10-0 Swindon); Charlton's WSL home record is 1-4 and 0-4, and they've lost all 3 top-flight games, while City are champions with a 100% league start. Re-priced to roughly λ 0.6 v 2.5, and Charlton's 3 games in 7 days helps City.

Researched but cut (10)

  • Järfälla v AFC Eskilstuna79%
    Järfälla are 14th on 15pts in a relegation fight, which counts as elevated stakes, so the bar is 86. The only H2H was 1-1 (shrunk 66.7). Eskilstuna sit 6th, far behind leaders Stockholm Internazionale, with little to play for. The 5-0 over Karlberg is real but broke a losing run; a home record of 10/10 decisive is mostly losses (shrunk 88.9).
  • Gotham FC v Chicago Stars FC79%
    The flag says Chicago are mathematically settled mid-table, so elevated_stakes_risk applies and the bar is 86. Gotham are chasing the Shield, but 2 of the last 5 H2H were 0-0 (shrunk 61.5) and Gotham have drawn 2 of their last 10 at home; the Denver 1-6 is a genuine top-side result, not a fluke.
  • ASA Aarhus v Hørsholm-Usserød78%
    Mid-table 3rd-tier game (5th v 8th), never met. Hørsholm drew 3 of 10 away (shrunk 72.2) and sit on 3 draws in 8 this season; raw 80.8 is under the bar and nothing raises it.
  • Triglav v Primorje77%
    New 2. SNL season, and Primorje's away sample is from the top flight (Maribor, Celje, Olimpija) before relegation, so λ 0.6 understates them at this level. Triglav are 1pt off the top, but the H2H 7/7 decisive is old (latest 2024). Under the bar.
  • Vänersborgs FK v Husqvarna80%
    Husqvarna lead Div 2 Norra Götaland by about 8pts and are motivated; Vänersborgs' home games were 10/10 decisive (shrunk 88.9). The Kumla 6-2 isn't carrying the rate. Raw 80.3 would only reach the bar's edge, so it stays cut rather than being nudged over.
  • Colo Colo v Audax Italiano70%
    Copa Chile last-16 2nd leg after a 0-0 first leg (Audax sat deep), so a 90-minute draw sends it to penalties and cagey knockout play is likely. Colo Colo are 3 games without a win and drew 3 of their last 10 at home.
  • Sollentuna v Stockholm Internazionale77%
    Stockholm-area fixture; H2H has 3 draws in 12, including 1-1 this May and 1-1 at Sollentuna last year (shrunk 75). Raw 79.2, and nothing lifts it to 81.
  • Ringsted v Næsby77%
    Never met; raw 78.6. The Munkebo 5-0 and Ishøj 5-1 are Næsby's cup-style away blowouts against weak sides, and Ringsted drew 2-2 v Hørsholm at home. Under the bar.
  • Stockport County v Peterborough United76%
    Peterborough are managerless (Luke Williams gone), 23rd, and on 3 games in 7 days. Stockport have 1 win in their last 4 including a draw with Sheffield Wednesday, and 2 of 6 H2H were drawn. Raw 78.4, under the bar.
  • Holstebro v Ishøj76%
    Raw 78.1. Ishøj score 0.7 per away game, so low-scoring 0-0/1-1 outcomes are live; the H2H 4/4 decisive is stale (latest 2024) and small.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (11)
  • Järfälla v AFC Eskilstuna (af.sweden)82.5%
  • Gotham FC v Chicago Stars FC (usa.nwsl)81.1%
  • ASA Aarhus v Hørsholm-Usserød (af.denmark)80.8%
  • Triglav v Primorje (af.slovenia)80.4%
  • Vänersborgs FK v Husqvarna (af.sweden)80.3%
  • Colo Colo v Audax Italiano (chi.copa_chi)79.9%
  • Sollentuna v Stockholm Internazionale (af.sweden)79.2%
  • Ringsted v Næsby (af.denmark)78.6%
  • Stockport County v Peterborough United (eng.3)78.4%
  • Holstebro v Ishøj (af.denmark)78.1%
  • Charlton Athletic v Manchester City (eng.w.1)78%