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Over 1.5

#MLS8W5 · 60.7% combined

Started with 114 games today → ended with 3 on the card.

9 candidates shortlisted, 3 made the card (restored from the 2026-09-23 23:32 research run); cut the CONCACAF NL openers (neutral venue/new coaches/blowout-inflated rates), a two-legged Copa Chile first leg, and three sides whose shrunk or H2H rates sit well under the bar
114
Games happening today
113(99% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −1 too little match history for one or both sides
55(49% kept)
Our model likes it (82%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −58 below 82% on the plain statistical model
9(16% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −46 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
9(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
3(33% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −6 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
3(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (3)

  • Havelse v Fortuna Köln85%
    Havelse's home games have all cleared 1.5 (8 of 8) and they concede plenty. Trimmed from raw 87.9 because Fortuna's away record is padded with pre-season friendlies (shrunk away 72.2).
  • HIK v Roskilde85%
    The flagged 0-5 loss to Esbjerg was a cup defeat to a higher-division side, not league form. HIK haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 home games, and the last 5 meetings all went over. Down from raw 86.
  • Lund v Kristianstad84%
    Excluding the 7-1 blowout, Lund's home games still went over 8 times in 9, and 6 of the 7 meetings went over. Two points off raw 86 because Lund keep clean sheets at home, so the over leans on Lund scoring twice.

Researched but cut (0)

  • Nothing cut -- every researched candidate made the card.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (9)
  • Bermuda v Guadeloupe (concacaf.nations.league)92.7%
  • Costa Rica v Curaçao (concacaf.nations.league)89.2%
  • Havelse v Fortuna Köln (af.germany)87.9%
  • HIK v Roskilde (af.denmark)86%
  • Lund v Kristianstad (af.sweden)86%
  • Treaty United v Finn Harps (af.ireland)85.4%
  • Hammarby Talang v Stocksund (af.sweden)84.3%
  • Dominican Republic v Nicaragua (concacaf.nations.league)84.1%
  • Everton CD v Universidad de Chile (chi.copa_chi)83.7%