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Over 1.5

#Y0FN0Z · 63.6% combined

Started with 117 games today → ended with 3 on the card.

16 candidates shortlisted, 3 made the card; most cuts had raw Poisson figures inflated by thin/stale/lower-tier samples, with shrunk rates at or below ~78%, plus League Cup rotation, cagey first legs of two-legged European ties, and low-scoring leagues (NPFL, CONCACAF League C)
117
Games happening today
82(70% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −35 too little match history for one or both sides
44(54% kept)
Our model likes it (78%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −38 below 78% on the plain statistical model
16(36% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −28 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
16(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
3(19% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −13 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
3(100% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day

Made the card (3)

  • Barcelona v Paris FC88%
    λ≈4.25; Barça have 19 goals in 4 Liga F wins and 10/10 home overs, but Aitana, Kika Nazareth and Vicky López are out and Paris FC kept 6 away clean sheets in 10 (last meeting only 2-0), so trimmed from raw 92.9%.
  • Birmingham Legion FC v Brooklyn FC85%
    Legion have conceded 8 in their last two (4-4, 0-4), are winless in 7 and have leaked 18 set-piece goals; Brooklyn are 10/10 over away. Congestion on both sides tends to loosen defences, so this is only a mild trim from raw 87.1%.
  • VfL Wolfsburg v SK Sturm Graz85%
    Big class gap (Wolfsburg, 3rd in the Frauen-Bundesliga, vs Austrian leaders Sturm, who conceded 3 away at Lithuanian minnows Gintra); Wolfsburg's 1-0/2-2 home results came against Lyon/Juve/Chelsea-level sides; cut from raw 88.3% for the first-leg setting and the thin away split (n=2).

Researched but cut (13)

  • PAOK v Spartak Myjava79%
    Women's Europa Cup R32 first leg; the λ≈4.8 comes from only 3 venue games against weak qualifying opposition. Shrunk rates are 80/77.8, PAOK's league opener was 1-0 and Myjava went out of UWCL qualifying, so this is a cagey first leg well short of raw 95.6%.
  • Ironi Beit Shemesh v Nordia Jerusalem79%
    Beit Shemesh are newly promoted and the home sample is mostly 2024 lower-division games (6-1 vs Segev Shalom). Both sides lost their first two games and leak goals, but the data is too stale/thin to trust raw 91.9%.
  • Beitar Nahariya v Maccabi Neve Sha'anan73%
    Nahariya's home sample runs back to 2019 across divisions (distorted by a 1-10 and a 1-6); home shrunk rate is 72.2%.
  • Sparta Prague v Farul Constanta79%
    First leg of a two-legged tie. Sparta's European home games are cagey (0-0 Vienna, 0-0 Ferencváros; home shrunk 69.2%). Farul's 0-5 at Vienna shows they are weak, but not enough to reach 78+ with a margin.
  • Everton v Birmingham City73%
    Everton home shrunk 66.7% with two straight clean sheets and mostly 1-0 home results; H2H shrunk 69.2%; League Cup group game with expected rotation ahead of the weekend derby.
  • Kyoto Sanga v Fujieda MYFC77%
    Emperor's Cup single-leg knockout (J1 v J2), with likely Kyoto rotation. Both shrunk rates are 77.8%, and Kyoto's heavy home losses came against J1 sides, not relevant here.
  • Odorheiu Secuiesc v Aerostar Bacau73%
    All shrunk rates are about 72%; the 8-goal H2H games are offset by a 1-0 and several 0-0/1-1 home draws; Aerostar scored 0 in their last two away games.
  • Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Sderot79%
    Ramat HaSharon started 0-0 and 1-1 before a first win; Sderot's away shrunk rate is 75% (last away game 1-0). Never met, and the lower-league data is too thin to clear 78 by a real margin.
  • Turks and Caicos Islands v Montserrat75%
    Two very weak attacks (Montserrat 0.7 GF/away game, away shrunk 72.2%); TCI haven't played a competitive game in over a year; the home over-rate is carried by 0-10/0-7 routs by far stronger teams.
  • Hamilton Academical v Cowdenbeath78%
    Challenge Cup v lower-tier Cowdenbeath: every shrunk rate is about 77-78%, the away split is n=1, the H2H is from 2013-14, and Hamilton's recent home results include 0-1 and 1-1. Lands at the bar with no margin, so cut.
  • Enugu Rangers v Ranchers Bees74%
    The NPFL is a low-scoring league and Rangers' home games are mostly 1-1/2-0/2-1. Rangers are congested with CAF duty (3 games in 7 days), and the away split is n=2.
  • Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa78%
    Villa leak goals away (2.5 GA/game, 10/10 overs), but Forest's home split is n=2 and League Cup group games bring heavy rotation. At the bar with no margin, so cut.
  • Tira v Hapoel Bnei Musmus72%
    Raw only 79%; Tira's home shrunk rate is 68.8%, with 0-0/0-1/1-0 home results offsetting the 4-0/5-0 wins over weak sides.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (16)
  • PAOK v Spartak Myjava (uefa.w.europa)95.6%
  • Barcelona v Paris FC (uefa.wchampions)92.9%
  • Ironi Beit Shemesh v Nordia Jerusalem (af.israel)91.9%
  • Beitar Nahariya v Maccabi Neve Sha'anan (af.israel)89%
  • Sparta Prague v Farul Constanta (uefa.w.europa)88.5%
  • VfL Wolfsburg v SK Sturm Graz (uefa.w.europa)88.3%
  • Everton v Birmingham City (eng.w.league_cup)88.1%
  • Kyoto Sanga v Fujieda MYFC (af.japan)88.1%
  • Odorheiu Secuiesc v Aerostar Bacau (af.romania)88.1%
  • Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Sderot (af.israel)87.8%
  • Birmingham Legion FC v Brooklyn FC (usa.usl.1)87.1%
  • Turks and Caicos Islands v Montserrat (concacaf.nations.league)86.6%
  • Hamilton Academical v Cowdenbeath (sco.challenge)83.6%
  • Enugu Rangers v Ranchers Bees (af.nigeria)82%
  • Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa (eng.w.league_cup)81.7%
  • Tira v Hapoel Bnei Musmus (af.israel)79%

Double Chance 12

#HGMTUT · 83% combined

Started with 117 games today → ended with 1 on the card.

11 candidates surveyed, 3 made the card; cuts: balanced or two-legged/cup ties (PAOK-Myjava, Beit Shemesh-Nordia 2nd v 3rd, Otelul II-Gloria bottom two), inflated raw λ (Palace-Watford), Odorheiu's 5/10 home draws, Kashima Emperor's Cup KO already past kickoff, and borderline low-scoring or cup legs that only land near 78 (Barau, Hamilton).
117
Games happening today
104(89% kept)
Enough recent match history to analyze
both teams have played at least 3 recent games
↓ −13 too little match history for one or both sides
19(18% kept)
Our model likes it (80%+ chance)
a plain statistical estimate, before any research
↓ −85 below 80% on the plain statistical model
6(32% kept)
Actually bookable on SportyBet
the specific bet type has to exist and be open
↓ −13 not offered, or that specific bet is closed right now
6(100% kept)
Sent to AI for deeper research
up to 35 candidates per day
3(50% kept)
Survived the research
team news, injuries, head-to-head history checked
↓ −3 cut after closer research -- see "researched but cut" below
1(33% kept)
Made today's card
capped at 8 picks per day
↓ −2 fell below the bar, or bumped by the daily cap

Made the card (1)

  • CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Vulturii Fărcăşeşti83%
    λ≈2.88 home, 1.08 away. Drobeta lead Seria 6 (10 pts from 4). Vulturii were decisive in all 10 away games (shrunk 88.9), conceded 3.5 a game with zero clean sheets, and lost 4-2 at Filiasi on 11 Sep. Early-season league game with no stakes distortion; held below the raw 84.6 because Drobeta's home sample is only 2 games.

Researched but cut (8)

  • Crystal Palace v Watford74%
    Raw 87 rests on an away λ of 3.14 from 2 games, one a 5-0 over amateur side Actonians. The Palace 0-7 was against Spurs while down to 10 men from the 7th minute. Watford (WSL2) drew 2 of their 3 September league games. Rotation in a League Cup group game and shrunk H2H of 77.8 put this well under the bar.
  • Kashima v Ventforet Kofu76%
    Emperor's Cup single-leg knockout (ET/pens, so a draw after 90 minutes is live). The 2023 meeting in the same round finished 1-1 before Kofu won on penalties. Kashima likely rotated, and the H2H has 3 draws in 15. Kickoff (08:00 UTC) has also passed.
  • Ironi Beit Shemesh v Nordia Jerusalem74%
    2nd v 3rd in Liga Alef South, a genuine top-of-table game. Beit Shemesh's home split is mostly 2024 results. Shrunk rates of 76.9/75 and a never-met fixture give no basis to reach 78.
  • PAOK v Spartak Myjava76%
    Balanced first leg of a two-legged Europa Cup tie: λ≈2.38/2.42, both sides UWCL QR2 runners-up. Samples are 1-2 games, shrunk away rate is 77.8, and evenly matched sides carry real draw risk.
  • FC Oţelul II v Gloria Băneasa75%
    Two of the weakest sides in Seria 4 (Otelul II 0 pts, Gloria 1 pt, which includes a draw this season). The high totals come from blowouts against stronger teams, and evenly bad sides meeting each other push draw risk up.
  • af:162851177%
    λ≈1.95/0.45 is a low-scoring profile where 0-0 is live. Barau drew 0-0 twice in their first four NPFL games and Abia drew 0-0 at home to Kun Khalifat. A 2-0 H2H either way doesn't lift it clearly above 78.
  • af:163285065%
    Odorheiu drew 5 of their last 10 at home (shrunk 61.1), including 0-0 and 1-1 against CSM Vaslui. The 6-2 H2H is a one-off blowout.
  • 40189629375%
    KDM Evolution Trophy tie that goes straight to penalties if level, so a draw after 90 minutes carries no cost. League One v Lowland League, but Hamilton's home form is mixed (0-1 EDI, 1-1 RRFC, 0-0 COVE). The H2H is stale and every shrunk rate is below 78.
Full shortlist sent to the agent (6)
  • Crystal Palace v Watford (eng.w.league_cup)87%
  • CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Vulturii Fărcăşeşti (af.romania)84.6%
  • Kashima v Ventforet Kofu (af.japan)80.6%
  • Ironi Beit Shemesh v Nordia Jerusalem (af.israel)80.6%
  • PAOK v Spartak Myjava (uefa.w.europa)80.5%
  • FC Oţelul II v Gloria Băneasa (af.romania)80.5%