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λ≈4.20; Norway's 88.9% shrunk home rate isn't only blowouts (it includes 3-2 SEN, 1-4 FRA, 1-2 ENG) and Haaland/Odegaard start against a Denmark back line missing Christensen, Bah and Hojbjerg, but I cut it from raw 92.7% to 87 because Denmark's away (77.8%) and H2H (76.9%) shrunk rates are lower and Sorloth is out.

All three shrunk rates are below the bar (76.5/77.8/69.2). The last meeting in Nov 2025 was 0-0, the game is at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua so Aruba have no real home edge, and Antigua score only 0.8 away. The raw 86.9% leans on routs by Haiti and Guyana.

Wales' shrunk away rate is 66.6% (4/7, with 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1 results) and the only H2H is from 2016. Portugal's 9-1 over Armenia inflates their home record, and Jorge Jesus is in his first game. Rodon being out for Wales helps a bit, but not enough to reach 82.

Austria have lost much of their attack: Arnautovic retired, Sabitzer is on a break, Baumgartner and Laimer are injured, and seven uncapped players were called up. The 10-0 over San Marino carries the home rate, and the 5.75-goal H2H average is stale (2019-2021). Israel's leaky away record isn't enough to offset that, so I cut it from raw 86%.

Netherlands v Germany is a genuine rivalry, so it has to clear 87%, and the raw 85.7% already falls short. The Dutch are also missing de Jong, Simons, Malen and Kluivert, and Xavi and Klopp are both making their debuts. The home record is inflated by 8-0 MLT and several 4-0s.

Nujeidat's shrunk home rate is 66.7% (6/10) and they score 0.8 per home game. The same fixture at this venue finished 0-0 in Jan 2026. It's Liga Alef North with Nujeidat 15th and Arraba 2nd, and the goals come mostly from Arraba conceding, e.g. 0-4 at Tira.

The teams have never met, the source is thin api-football data and I couldn't find any team news. Hadera's shrunk home rate is 72.2% and they average 1.2 goals at home. Ashdod's 8/8 away sample includes three 1-1 draws.

This is the first leg of a two-legged Copa Chile last-16 tie (return on Sept 27), and first legs are typically more cautious. Iquique's coach has to rotate because of U21-minutes rules and accumulated injuries, and they're expected to play a counter-attacking 4-4-2. Antofagasta's shrunk away rate is 73.3%. The strong H2H (4.2 average) keeps it close, but not at 82.

H2H shrunk rate is 61.6% over 18 meetings, with a 1.89 average and many 1-0 and 0-0 results. Rishon (2nd in Leumit) are in good form, but that doesn't outweigh a long, low-scoring series.

The last two meetings were both 0-0 (H2H 1.33 average, 1/3 over). Herzliya have scored and conceded only 7 each in 6 Leumit games, and their shrunk home rate is 72.2%. Kiryat Yam's 18:12 goal record is partly the 6-2 at Kabilio Jaffa.

Elva's shrunk home rate is 66.7%, with four clean sheets in their last 10 at home (1-0, 0-0, 1-0 results). Kalev's 10/10 away record includes an 8-0 over an U19 side. It's a cup tie, and recent meetings include 1-0 and 2-1. The source is thin api-football data.

Raw 82.8% is right on the bar. H2H shrunk is 72.7% (1-0 and 2-0 at this venue), Yavne's latest away game was a 0-1, and I couldn't find any team news. FC Jerusalem's 8/8 home rate is a small sample and includes three draws.