Goal Elo

monitoring only -- not used by any card's picks

An attack/defense Elo variant tracking goal-scoring and goal-conceding strength independently of win/loss. Each team's Attack and Defense sit on a log scale where 0 is exactly league average; ratings update after every match from the gap between actual and expected goals. See scripts/goal_elo/goal_elo.py for the model.

Ratings

Argentina - Liga ProfesionalAustralia - A-LeagueAustria - BundesligaBelgium - Jupiler Pro LeagueBolivia - Primera DivisionBrazil - Serie AChile - Primera DivisionChina - Super LeagueColombia - Primera ACosta Rica - Primera DivisionDenmark - SuperligaEcuador - Liga ProEl Salvador - Primera DivisionEngland - Premier LeagueFrance - Ligue 1Germany - BundesligaGreece - Super LeagueGuatemala - Liga NacionalHonduras - Liga NacionalIndia - Indian Super LeagueItaly - Serie AJapan - J1 LeagueMexico - Liga MXNetherlands - EredivisieNorway - EliteserienParaguay - Division Profesional (Apertura)Peru - Primera DivisionPortugal - Primeira LigaRussia - Premier LeagueSaudi Arabia - Pro LeagueScotland - PremiershipSouth Africa - Premier Soccer LeagueSpain - La LigaSweden - AllsvenskanTurkey - Super LigUruguay - Primera DivisionUSA - MLSVenezuela - Primera Division

24 teams · K=0.025 · league avg 0.915 goals/team/match · home advantage +0.374 log-units (~45%) · seasons 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · generated 2026-09-19 10:32 UTC

Attack (0 = league average)Defense ↑Águilas Doradas -- attack 0.095 (1548 Elo), defense -0.037 (1481 Elo), 176 matchesBucaramanga -- attack 0.077 (1538 Elo), defense 0.234 (1617 Elo), 177 matchesBucaramangaAmerica de Cali -- attack 0.164 (1582 Elo), defense 0.223 (1611 Elo), 194 matchesEnvigado -- attack -0.244 (1378 Elo), defense -0.061 (1469 Elo), 164 matchesSanta Fe -- attack 0.051 (1525 Elo), defense 0.227 (1614 Elo), 192 matchesSanta FeInternacional de Bogota -- attack -0.257 (1372 Elo), defense -0.278 (1361 Elo), 170 matchesDeportivo Pasto -- attack 0.057 (1528 Elo), defense -0.031 (1485 Elo), 176 matchesMillonarios -- attack 0.121 (1561 Elo), defense 0.128 (1564 Elo), 202 matchesCortulua -- attack -0.073 (1463 Elo), defense -0.051 (1475 Elo), 40 matchesAtletico Nacional -- attack 0.431 (1715 Elo), defense 0.126 (1563 Elo), 199 matchesAtletico NacionalJunior -- attack 0.299 (1650 Elo), defense 0.164 (1582 Elo), 204 matchesJuniorPatriotas -- attack -0.069 (1465 Elo), defense -0.141 (1430 Elo), 78 matchesIndependiente Medellin -- attack 0.423 (1711 Elo), defense 0.121 (1560 Elo), 200 matchesIndependiente MedellinDeportes Tolima -- attack 0.169 (1585 Elo), defense 0.250 (1625 Elo), 200 matchesDeportes TolimaOnce Caldas -- attack -0.038 (1481 Elo), defense 0.051 (1526 Elo), 175 matchesUnion Magdalena -- attack -0.076 (1462 Elo), defense -0.246 (1377 Elo), 119 matchesAlianza Valledupar -- attack 0.023 (1512 Elo), defense 0.019 (1510 Elo), 164 matchesDeportivo Pereira -- attack -0.055 (1472 Elo), defense -0.274 (1363 Elo), 172 matchesJaguares -- attack -0.285 (1357 Elo), defense -0.031 (1484 Elo), 118 matchesDeportivo Cali -- attack -0.119 (1441 Elo), defense -0.073 (1463 Elo), 164 matchesHuila -- attack -0.054 (1473 Elo), defense -0.067 (1466 Elo), 40 matchesChico -- attack -0.285 (1358 Elo), defense -0.270 (1365 Elo), 124 matchesFortaleza FC -- attack -0.104 (1448 Elo), defense 0.007 (1503 Elo), 84 matchesLlaneros -- attack -0.124 (1438 Elo), defense -0.116 (1442 Elo), 40 matches

Dot size = matches played (a small dot is a partial-season sample -- promoted/relegated sides). Color is combined attack+defense strength, green (strong) to red (weak). Labeled: top 3 by attack, top 3 by defense.

TeamAttackDefenseAtk EloDef EloGF vs avg defenseGA vs avg attackMatches
Atletico Nacional0.4310.126171515631.410.81199
Independiente Medellin0.4230.121171115601.400.81200
Junior0.2990.164165015821.230.78204
Deportes Tolima0.1690.250158516251.080.71200
America de Cali0.1640.223158216111.080.73194
Millonarios0.1210.128156115641.030.80202
Águilas Doradas0.095-0.037154814811.010.95176
Bucaramanga0.0770.234153816170.990.72177
Deportivo Pasto0.057-0.031152814850.970.94176
Santa Fe0.0510.227152516140.960.73192
Alianza Valledupar0.0230.019151215100.940.90164
Once Caldas-0.0380.051148115260.880.87175
Huila-0.054-0.067147314660.870.9840
Deportivo Pereira-0.055-0.274147213630.871.20172
Patriotas-0.069-0.141146514300.851.0578
Cortulua-0.073-0.051146314750.850.9640
Union Magdalena-0.076-0.246146213770.851.17119
Fortaleza FC-0.1040.007144815030.820.9184
Deportivo Cali-0.119-0.073144114630.810.98164
Llaneros-0.124-0.116143814420.811.0340
Envigado-0.244-0.061137814690.720.97164
Internacional de Bogota-0.257-0.278137213610.711.21170
Chico-0.285-0.270135813650.691.20124
Jaguares-0.285-0.031135714840.690.94118

Atk/Def Elo = 1500 + raw × 500 -- a cosmetic rescale for familiarity, not a real unit conversion. Chess Elo's 400-point gap has a specific meaning (10:1 win odds) that goal-scoring rate has no equivalent of. The Attack/Defense columns are what the model actually computes with.

2026 over 1.5 check

P(total goals ≥ 2) for every completed match since 2026-01-01 across all 38 tracked leagues -- the mu_home + mu_away → Poisson total construction, same as over-15-card's own math, just fed by Goal Elo's ratings instead. Each prediction used only ratings built from strictly earlier matches, compared against a baseline that knows just the league's average scoring rate and home advantage, no team identity at all.

7,770
Matches scored
75.8%
Actual over-1.5 rate
0.182
Model Brier score
-0.5%
Skill vs baseline

Honest read: over 1.5 is a low bar in football (the baseline alone already expects it 76% of the time), so knowing which specific teams are playing barely moves the needle here -- skill sits close to 0% pooled, unlike the real, consistent edge Attack/Defense showed on raw expected goals. The model is well calibrated (see below), it just isn't adding much information a viewer didn't already have from the league's baseline rate.

Reliability

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Predicted P(over 1.5)Actual over-1.5 rateperfect calibrationpredicted ~50%, actually over 1.5 51% of the time (n=45)predicted ~55%, actually over 1.5 67% of the time (n=177)predicted ~60%, actually over 1.5 65% of the time (n=428)predicted ~65%, actually over 1.5 71% of the time (n=967)predicted ~70%, actually over 1.5 74% of the time (n=1564)predicted ~75%, actually over 1.5 76% of the time (n=1858)predicted ~80%, actually over 1.5 79% of the time (n=1593)predicted ~85%, actually over 1.5 84% of the time (n=835)predicted ~90%, actually over 1.5 87% of the time (n=243)predicted ~95%, actually over 1.5 95% of the time (n=44)

Matches bucketed by predicted P(over 1.5); dot = actual over-1.5 rate in that bucket (size = sample). On the dashed line means perfectly calibrated.

Skill vs no-team-identity baseline

Peru - Primera Division
5.0%
Bolivia - Primera Division
3.8%
South Africa - Premier Soccer League
3.2%
Turkey - Super Lig
2.2%
Portugal - Primeira Liga
2.1%
Ecuador - Liga Pro
1.8%
Russia - Premier League
1.1%
China - Super League
1.1%
USA - MLS
1.0%
Australia - A-League
0.9%
Brazil - Serie A
0.4%
Argentina - Liga Profesional
0.3%
Colombia - Primera A
0.1%
Costa Rica - Primera Division
0.0%
Chile - Primera Division
-0.2%
Norway - Eliteserien
-0.2%
France - Ligue 1
-0.3%
Greece - Super League
-0.5%
Guatemala - Liga Nacional
-0.6%
Spain - La Liga
-0.6%
Italy - Serie A
-1.1%
Netherlands - Eredivisie
-1.3%
El Salvador - Primera Division
-1.3%
Uruguay - Primera Division
-1.4%
Honduras - Liga Nacional
-1.6%
Sweden - Allsvenskan
-1.9%
Denmark - Superliga
-2.1%
Mexico - Liga MX
-2.4%
Paraguay - Division Profesional (Apertura)
-2.4%
Saudi Arabia - Pro League
-2.6%
England - Premier League
-2.7%
India - Indian Super League
-2.9%
Austria - Bundesliga
-2.9%
Scotland - Premiership
-3.0%
Venezuela - Primera Division
-3.3%
Japan - J1 League
-3.5%
Belgium - Jupiler Pro League
-4.1%
Germany - Bundesliga
-4.7%

1 − (model Brier / baseline Brier). 0% = no better than ignoring which teams are playing; a negative bar means Attack/Defense info actually hurt on that league's calls.

Biggest surprises

Lowest probability the model gave to what actually happened.

  • VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-05-09)model said 96% over
  • CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami (USA - MLS, 2026-07-25)model said 93% over
  • Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge (Belgium - Jupiler Pro League, 2026-08-23)model said 92% over
  • Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo (Spain - La Liga, 2026-04-22)model said 92% over
  • FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-09-05)model said 92% over
  • Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF (Sweden - Allsvenskan, 2026-08-31)model said 91% over
  • FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (Denmark - Superliga, 2026-03-15)model said 91% over
  • Always Ready 1-0 Oriente Petrolero (Bolivia - Primera Division, 2026-04-22)model said 91% over
  • Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur (Australia - A-League, 2026-02-22)model said 90% over
  • Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Arabia - Pro League, 2026-03-14)model said 90% over

All predictions — Colombia - Primera A (289)

Switch leagues with the tabs above the ratings table; newest match first.

DateMatchScoreP(over)ActualCall
2026-09-18Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellin2-273%over✓
2026-09-18Águilas Doradas v Deportivo Pereira2-272%over✓
2026-09-17Internacional de Bogota v Atletico Nacional2-381%over✓
2026-09-16Chico v Alianza Valledupar1-265%over✓
2026-09-16Once Caldas v Deportes Tolima1-069%under✗
2026-09-15America de Cali v Deportivo Pasto0-179%under✗
2026-09-14Cucuta v Millonarios1-272%over✓
2026-09-13Alianza Valledupar v Junior1-072%under✗
2026-09-13Deportivo Pereira v Bucaramanga1-363%over✓
2026-09-13Atletico Nacional v Águilas Doradas2-085%over✓
2026-09-13Once Caldas v Deportivo Cali1-266%over✓
2026-09-12Santa Fe v Deportes Tolima1-068%under✗
2026-09-12Internacional de Bogota v Llaneros3-266%over✓
2026-09-12Chico v Independiente Medellin2-174%over✓
2026-09-11Millonarios v Deportivo Cali1-164%over✓
2026-09-11Jaguares v Fortaleza FC2-268%over✓
2026-09-07Llaneros v Deportes Tolima1-259%over✓
2026-09-06Junior v Jaguares3-376%over✓
2026-09-06Internacional de Bogota v Águilas Doradas2-272%over✓
2026-09-06Deportivo Pereira v Millonarios1-167%over✓
2026-09-05Chico v Once Caldas2-073%over✓
2026-09-05Cucuta v Deportivo Pasto2-275%over✓
2026-09-05Santa Fe v Fortaleza FC2-271%over✓
2026-09-04Deportivo Pereira v Independiente Medellin0-371%over✓
2026-09-03Santa Fe v Millonarios3-266%over✓
2026-09-03America de Cali v Alianza Valledupar3-075%over✓
2026-09-02Fortaleza FC v Once Caldas1-269%over✓
2026-09-01Deportes Tolima v Cucuta2-173%over✓
2026-08-31Deportivo Cali v Bucaramanga1-158%over✓
2026-08-31Deportivo Pasto v Deportivo Pereira1-271%over✓
2026-08-30Alianza Valledupar v Atletico Nacional1-571%over✓
2026-08-30Águilas Doradas v Chico2-274%over✓
2026-08-30Independiente Medellin v Llaneros2-169%over✓
2026-08-30Millonarios v Internacional de Bogota0-079%under✗
2026-08-29Jaguares v America de Cali2-266%over✓
2026-08-29Junior v Santa Fe1-170%over✓
2026-08-28Internacional de Bogota v Deportivo Pasto1-177%over✓
2026-08-27Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Cali2-172%over✓
2026-08-27Llaneros v Millonarios0-262%over✓
2026-08-26Cucuta v Alianza Valledupar1-069%under✗
2026-08-26Chico v Fortaleza FC0-068%under✗
2026-08-26America de Cali v Junior4-266%over✓
2026-08-24Junior v Once Caldas1-174%over✓
2026-08-23Independiente Medellin v Cucuta0-184%under✗
2026-08-23Fortaleza FC v Atletico Nacional1-272%over✓
2026-08-23Deportivo Pasto v Llaneros0-168%under✗
2026-08-23Deportivo Cali v Internacional de Bogota2-268%over✓
2026-08-22Alianza Valledupar v Deportivo Pereira0-066%under✗
2026-08-22Águilas Doradas v Millonarios1-170%over✓
2026-08-22Deportes Tolima v Bucaramanga0-066%under✗
2026-08-22Santa Fe v America de Cali0-065%under✗
2026-08-21Jaguares v Chico1-070%under✗
2026-08-19Águilas Doradas v Llaneros1-165%over✓
2026-08-19Cucuta v Internacional de Bogota1-178%over✓
2026-08-10America de Cali v Atletico Nacional1-071%under✗
2026-08-09Deportivo Pasto v Deportivo Cali0-266%over✓
2026-08-09Alianza Valledupar v Bucaramanga2-361%over✓
2026-08-09Jaguares v Once Caldas1-171%over✓
2026-08-08Santa Fe v Chico2-082%over✓
2026-08-08Fortaleza FC v Cucuta2-074%over✓
2026-08-08Deportes Tolima v Internacional de Bogota2-178%over✓
2026-08-06Once Caldas v America de Cali0-172%under✗
2026-08-05Millonarios v Deportivo Pasto2-078%over✓
2026-08-05Internacional de Bogota v Jaguares1-075%under✗
2026-08-04Bucaramanga v Cucuta1-176%over✓
2026-08-04Llaneros v Fortaleza FC3-160%over✓
2026-08-04Deportes Tolima v Independiente Medellin2-371%over✓
2026-08-03Santa Fe v Once Caldas2-273%over✓
2026-08-02Junior v Millonarios0-175%under✗
2026-08-02Jaguares v Atletico Nacional0-375%over✓
2026-08-02America de Cali v Chico7-072%over✓
2026-08-01Fortaleza FC v Deportivo Pereira0-071%under✗
2026-08-01Deportivo Pasto v Águilas Doradas1-276%over✓
2026-08-01Alianza Valledupar v Deportes Tolima1-260%over✓
2026-08-01Independiente Medellin v Deportivo Cali1-069%under✗
2026-07-31Bucaramanga v Llaneros1-162%over✓
2026-07-27Once Caldas v Cucuta5-177%over✓
2026-07-26Deportes Tolima v Junior2-166%over✓
2026-07-26Internacional de Bogota v America de Cali0-270%over✓
2026-07-26Águilas Doradas v Santa Fe2-168%over✓
2026-07-26Alianza Valledupar v Fortaleza FC1-164%over✓
2026-07-25Deportivo Cali v Jaguares2-064%over✓
2026-07-25Independiente Medellin v Deportivo Pasto3-278%over✓
2026-07-25Millonarios v Bucaramanga0-171%under✗
2026-07-24Llaneros v Deportivo Pereira1-066%under✗
2026-06-08Atletico Nacional v Junior1-079%under✗
2026-06-03Junior v Atletico Nacional3-077%over✓
2026-05-24Junior v Santa Fe0-074%under✗
2026-05-23Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima3-171%over✓
2026-05-17Santa Fe v Junior1-176%over✓
2026-05-16Deportes Tolima v Atletico Nacional0-170%under✗
2026-05-14Junior v Once Caldas2-275%over✓
2026-05-13Santa Fe v America de Cali4-064%over✓
2026-05-13Deportivo Pasto v Deportes Tolima0-269%over✓
2026-05-12Atletico Nacional v Internacional de Bogota7-180%over✓
2026-05-10America de Cali v Santa Fe1-165%over✓
2026-05-10Once Caldas v Junior0-176%under✗
2026-05-09Internacional de Bogota v Atletico Nacional1-273%over✓
2026-05-09Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto1-073%under✗
2026-05-03Independiente Medellin v Águilas Doradas1-276%over✓
2026-05-03Santa Fe v Internacional de Bogota3-173%over✓
2026-05-03Alianza Valledupar v Millonarios2-265%over✓
2026-05-03Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Cali1-162%over✓
2026-05-03Fortaleza FC v Bucaramanga2-164%over✓
2026-05-03Junior v Deportivo Pasto4-375%over✓
2026-05-03America de Cali v Deportivo Pereira1-074%under✗
2026-05-02Chico v Llaneros3-060%over✓
2026-05-02Jaguares v Cucuta2-073%over✓
2026-05-01Once Caldas v Atletico Nacional1-074%under✗
2026-04-27Internacional de Bogota v Chico4-068%over✓
2026-04-26Independiente Medellin v Fortaleza FC1-077%under✗
2026-04-26Águilas Doradas v Once Caldas2-270%over✓
2026-04-26Llaneros v Alianza Valledupar0-061%under✗
2026-04-25Bucaramanga v Jaguares2-271%over✓
2026-04-25Deportivo Pereira v Atletico Nacional1-079%under✗
2026-04-25Deportivo Cali v America de Cali1-059%under✗
2026-04-24Millonarios v Deportes Tolima2-069%over✓
2026-04-24Cucuta v Junior1-176%over✓
2026-04-23Fortaleza FC v America de Cali1-264%over✓
2026-04-23Deportivo Pasto v Santa Fe1-270%over✓
2026-04-22Independiente Medellin v Chico2-079%over✓
2026-04-21Atletico Nacional v Bucaramanga2-072%over✓
2026-04-20America de Cali v Millonarios3-166%over✓
2026-04-20Once Caldas v Internacional de Bogota2-173%over✓
2026-04-19Fortaleza FC v Águilas Doradas2-068%over✓
2026-04-19Santa Fe v Cucuta5-072%over✓
2026-04-19Alianza Valledupar v Independiente Medellin0-172%under✗
2026-04-19Junior v Llaneros2-070%over✓
2026-04-18Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pereira2-079%over✓
2026-04-17Chico v Deportivo Cali1-061%under✗
2026-04-17Jaguares v Deportivo Pasto2-366%over✓
2026-04-13Internacional de Bogota v Alianza Valledupar2-165%over✓
2026-04-12Independiente Medellin v Atletico Nacional2-377%over✓
2026-04-12Millonarios v Santa Fe1-170%over✓
2026-04-12Deportivo Cali v Llaneros1-159%over✓
2026-04-12Bucaramanga v Chico5-066%over✓
2026-04-11Deportivo Pasto v Deportes Tolima1-068%under✗
2026-04-11Águilas Doradas v Junior0-371%over✓
2026-04-10Deportivo Pereira v Once Caldas0-077%under✗
2026-04-07Atletico Nacional v Jaguares2-180%over✓
2026-04-07Águilas Doradas v Bucaramanga2-161%over✓
2026-04-06Deportivo Pereira v Alianza Valledupar2-367%over✓
2026-04-05Deportes Tolima v Santa Fe2-266%over✓
2026-04-05Cucuta v America de Cali2-068%over✓
2026-04-04Junior v Deportivo Cali1-268%over✓
2026-04-03Once Caldas v Independiente Medellin1-178%over✓
2026-04-03Fortaleza FC v Internacional de Bogota1-170%over✓
2026-04-02Atletico Nacional v Cucuta0-086%under✗
2026-04-02Chico v Deportivo Pereira1-072%under✗
2026-04-02America de Cali v Bucaramanga2-059%over✓
2026-04-02Jaguares v Millonarios1-070%under✗
2026-04-01Deportes Tolima v Águilas Doradas4-164%over✓
2026-04-01Alianza Valledupar v Deportivo Pasto0-067%under✗
2026-04-01Santa Fe v Llaneros0-164%under✗
2026-03-31Millonarios v Fortaleza FC2-274%over✓
2026-03-30Llaneros v Once Caldas1-169%over✓
2026-03-30Independiente Medellin v America de Cali2-169%over✓
2026-03-29Deportivo Cali v Deportivo Pereira1-073%under✗
2026-03-29Internacional de Bogota v Junior0-172%under✗
2026-03-29Deportivo Pasto v Atletico Nacional1-276%over✓
2026-03-28Bucaramanga v Santa Fe1-261%over✓
2026-03-28Cucuta v Chico1-077%under✗
2026-03-28Deportes Tolima v Jaguares3-169%over✓
2026-03-27Águilas Doradas v Alianza Valledupar1-065%under✗
2026-03-26America de Cali v Llaneros0-067%under✗
2026-03-25Fortaleza FC v Deportivo Pasto1-269%over✓
2026-03-24Deportivo Pereira v Cucuta2-279%over✓
2026-03-24Junior v Bucaramanga2-066%over✓
2026-03-23Chico v Deportes Tolima1-164%over✓
2026-03-23Santa Fe v Independiente Medellin2-170%over✓
2026-03-23Jaguares v Águilas Doradas1-163%over✓
2026-03-22Atletico Nacional v Internacional de Bogota3-082%over✓
2026-03-22Alianza Valledupar v Deportivo Cali1-062%under✗
2026-03-21Once Caldas v Millonarios1-472%over✓
2026-03-20Independiente Medellin v Junior2-078%over✓
2026-03-20Águilas Doradas v America de Cali0-164%under✗
2026-03-19Bucaramanga v Once Caldas1-167%over✓
2026-03-19Deportivo Cali v Santa Fe1-161%over✓
2026-03-19Alianza Valledupar v Jaguares1-067%under✗
2026-03-19Deportes Tolima v Fortaleza FC2-067%over✓
2026-03-18Millonarios v Atletico Nacional3-074%over✓
2026-03-18Deportivo Pasto v Chico2-075%over✓
2026-03-18Internacional de Bogota v Deportivo Pereira2-275%over✓
2026-03-17Llaneros v Cucuta2-272%over✓
2026-03-16Junior v Fortaleza FC2-174%over✓
2026-03-15Santa Fe v Alianza Valledupar1-167%over✓
2026-03-15Deportivo Pereira v Águilas Doradas0-173%under✗
2026-03-15America de Cali v Deportes Tolima1-162%over✓
2026-03-15Jaguares v Independiente Medellin1-272%over✓
2026-03-14Atletico Nacional v Llaneros2-079%over✓
2026-03-14Internacional de Bogota v Bucaramanga0-065%under✗
2026-03-14Cucuta v Deportivo Cali0-271%over✓
2026-03-14Chico v Millonarios2-168%over✓
2026-03-13Once Caldas v Deportivo Pasto4-270%over✓
2026-03-11Junior v Atletico Nacional0-477%over✓
2026-03-10Deportivo Pasto v America de Cali2-066%over✓
2026-03-10Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pereira3-075%over✓
2026-03-09Llaneros v Jaguares2-066%over✓
2026-03-09Millonarios v Cucuta2-077%over✓
2026-03-07Deportivo Cali v Once Caldas0-266%over✓
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