Goal Elo
monitoring only -- not used by any card's picksAn attack/defense Elo variant tracking goal-scoring and goal-conceding strength independently of win/loss. Each team's Attack and Defense sit on a log scale where 0 is exactly league average; ratings update after every match from the gap between actual and expected goals. See scripts/goal_elo/goal_elo.py for the model.
Ratings
25 teams · K=0.025 · league avg 1.336 goals/team/match · home advantage +0.192 log-units (~21%) · seasons 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · generated 2026-09-19 10:32 UTC
Dot size = matches played (a small dot is a partial-season sample -- promoted/relegated sides). Color is combined attack+defense strength, green (strong) to red (weak). Labeled: top 3 by attack, top 3 by defense.
| Team | Attack | Defense | Atk Elo | Def Elo | GF vs avg defense | GA vs avg attack | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 0.327 | 0.388 | 1663 | 1694 | 1.85 | 0.91 | 152 |
| Manchester United | 0.237 | 0.151 | 1619 | 1576 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 152 |
| Arsenal | 0.236 | 0.539 | 1618 | 1769 | 1.69 | 0.78 | 152 |
| Liverpool | 0.198 | 0.071 | 1599 | 1536 | 1.63 | 1.24 | 152 |
| Aston Villa | 0.095 | 0.098 | 1547 | 1549 | 1.47 | 1.21 | 152 |
| Bournemouth | 0.092 | 0.164 | 1546 | 1582 | 1.46 | 1.13 | 152 |
| Newcastle | 0.086 | 0.039 | 1543 | 1520 | 1.46 | 1.28 | 152 |
| Brentford | 0.050 | 0.102 | 1525 | 1551 | 1.40 | 1.21 | 152 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.023 | 0.164 | 1511 | 1582 | 1.37 | 1.13 | 152 |
| Chelsea | 0.020 | 0.059 | 1510 | 1530 | 1.36 | 1.26 | 152 |
| Brighton | 0.011 | 0.167 | 1505 | 1584 | 1.35 | 1.13 | 152 |
| Luton | -0.017 | -0.191 | 1491 | 1405 | 1.31 | 1.62 | 38 |
| Leeds | -0.040 | 0.055 | 1480 | 1528 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 76 |
| West Ham | -0.084 | -0.012 | 1458 | 1494 | 1.23 | 1.35 | 152 |
| Everton | -0.095 | 0.121 | 1453 | 1561 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 152 |
| Tottenham | -0.096 | -0.059 | 1452 | 1471 | 1.21 | 1.42 | 152 |
| Fulham | -0.112 | 0.130 | 1444 | 1565 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 152 |
| Sheffield Utd | -0.140 | -0.266 | 1430 | 1367 | 1.16 | 1.74 | 38 |
| Sunderland | -0.144 | 0.090 | 1428 | 1545 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 38 |
| Crystal Palace | -0.171 | 0.057 | 1414 | 1529 | 1.13 | 1.26 | 152 |
| Ipswich | -0.183 | -0.231 | 1408 | 1384 | 1.11 | 1.68 | 38 |
| Burnley | -0.242 | -0.238 | 1379 | 1381 | 1.05 | 1.69 | 76 |
| Leicester | -0.270 | -0.153 | 1365 | 1424 | 1.02 | 1.56 | 76 |
| Southampton | -0.317 | -0.228 | 1342 | 1386 | 0.97 | 1.68 | 76 |
| Wolves | -0.378 | -0.105 | 1311 | 1448 | 0.91 | 1.48 | 152 |
Atk/Def Elo = 1500 + raw × 500 -- a cosmetic rescale for familiarity, not a real unit conversion. Chess Elo's 400-point gap has a specific meaning (10:1 win odds) that goal-scoring rate has no equivalent of. The Attack/Defense columns are what the model actually computes with.
2026 over 1.5 check
P(total goals ≥ 2) for every completed match since 2026-01-01 across all 38 tracked leagues -- the mu_home + mu_away → Poisson total construction, same as over-15-card's own math, just fed by Goal Elo's ratings instead. Each prediction used only ratings built from strictly earlier matches, compared against a baseline that knows just the league's average scoring rate and home advantage, no team identity at all.
Honest read: over 1.5 is a low bar in football (the baseline alone already expects it 76% of the time), so knowing which specific teams are playing barely moves the needle here -- skill sits close to 0% pooled, unlike the real, consistent edge Attack/Defense showed on raw expected goals. The model is well calibrated (see below), it just isn't adding much information a viewer didn't already have from the league's baseline rate.
Reliability
Matches bucketed by predicted P(over 1.5); dot = actual over-1.5 rate in that bucket (size = sample). On the dashed line means perfectly calibrated.
Skill vs no-team-identity baseline
1 − (model Brier / baseline Brier). 0% = no better than ignoring which teams are playing; a negative bar means Attack/Defense info actually hurt on that league's calls.
Biggest surprises
Lowest probability the model gave to what actually happened.
- VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-05-09)model said 96% over
- CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami (USA - MLS, 2026-07-25)model said 93% over
- Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge (Belgium - Jupiler Pro League, 2026-08-23)model said 92% over
- Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo (Spain - La Liga, 2026-04-22)model said 92% over
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-09-05)model said 92% over
- Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF (Sweden - Allsvenskan, 2026-08-31)model said 91% over
- FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (Denmark - Superliga, 2026-03-15)model said 91% over
- Always Ready 1-0 Oriente Petrolero (Bolivia - Primera Division, 2026-04-22)model said 91% over
- Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur (Australia - A-League, 2026-02-22)model said 90% over
- Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Arabia - Pro League, 2026-03-14)model said 90% over
All predictions — England - Premier League (235)
Switch leagues with the tabs above the ratings table; newest match first.
| Date | Match | Score | P(over) | Actual | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Brentford v Chelsea | 3-0 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-14 | Leeds v Newcastle | 4-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Coventry v Brighton | 0-5 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United v Manchester City | 0-1 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | Bournemouth v Brentford | 2-2 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Liverpool v Fulham | 0-0 | 81% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | Chelsea v Hull City | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Crystal Palace v Ipswich | 2-3 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Tottenham v Everton | 0-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | Sunderland v Arsenal | 0-2 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Everton v Manchester United | 2-2 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle v Bournemouth | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Fulham v Crystal Palace | 2-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester City v Coventry | 1-0 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-05 | Brighton v Leeds | 1-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Brentford v Sunderland | 1-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-05 | Hull City v Aston Villa | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-04 | Ipswich v Liverpool | 0-2 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | 0-1 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-30 | Chelsea v Brighton | 4-3 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Leeds v Brentford | 1-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Sunderland v Fulham | 1-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-30 | Manchester United v Ipswich | 5-2 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Bournemouth v Everton | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Coventry v Hull City | 0-1 | 79% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | Tottenham v Newcastle | 0-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 1-4 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-24 | Fulham v Chelsea | 2-3 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester City v Bournemouth | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Brighton v Aston Villa | 4-0 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Newcastle v Liverpool | 2-2 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Hull City v Manchester United | 2-0 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Everton v Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Ipswich v Sunderland | 2-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham Forest v Leeds | 0-1 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Brentford v Tottenham | 3-0 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-21 | Arsenal v Coventry | 3-0 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Fulham v Newcastle | 2-0 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Liverpool v Brentford | 1-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Burnley v Wolves | 1-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Tottenham v Everton | 1-0 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-24 | West Ham v Leeds | 3-0 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Manchester City v Aston Villa | 1-2 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Brighton v Manchester United | 0-3 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Crystal Palace v Arsenal | 1-2 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Sunderland v Chelsea | 2-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | Bournemouth v Manchester City | 1-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | Chelsea v Tottenham | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | Arsenal v Burnley | 1-0 | 86% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-17 | Manchester United v Nottingham Forest | 3-2 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Wolves v Fulham | 1-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Everton v Sunderland | 1-3 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Brentford v Crystal Palace | 2-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Leeds v Brighton | 1-0 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-17 | Newcastle v West Ham | 3-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | Aston Villa v Liverpool | 4-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | Manchester City v Crystal Palace | 3-0 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | Tottenham v Leeds | 1-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Burnley v Aston Villa | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Crystal Palace v Everton | 2-2 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Nottingham Forest v Newcastle | 1-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | West Ham v Arsenal | 0-1 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-09 | Liverpool v Chelsea | 1-1 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | Fulham v Bournemouth | 0-1 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-09 | Brighton v Wolves | 3-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | Sunderland v Manchester United | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-09 | Manchester City v Brentford | 3-0 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-04 | Chelsea v Nottingham Forest | 1-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-04 | Everton v Manchester City | 3-3 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Bournemouth v Crystal Palace | 3-0 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Manchester United v Liverpool | 3-2 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Aston Villa v Tottenham | 1-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Newcastle v Brighton | 3-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Wolves v Sunderland | 1-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Brentford v West Ham | 3-0 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Arsenal v Fulham | 3-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-01 | Leeds v Burnley | 3-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-27 | Manchester United v Brentford | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Fulham v Aston Villa | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Wolves v Tottenham | 0-1 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Liverpool v Crystal Palace | 3-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | West Ham v Everton | 2-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Arsenal v Newcastle | 1-0 | 81% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-24 | Sunderland v Nottingham Forest | 0-5 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-22 | Bournemouth v Leeds | 2-2 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-22 | Burnley v Manchester City | 0-1 | 85% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-21 | Brighton v Chelsea | 3-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-20 | Crystal Palace v West Ham | 0-0 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-19 | Everton v Liverpool | 1-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Nottingham Forest v Burnley | 4-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Aston Villa v Sunderland | 4-3 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Manchester City v Arsenal | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Brentford v Fulham | 0-0 | 78% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-18 | Newcastle v Bournemouth | 1-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Leeds v Wolves | 3-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Tottenham v Brighton | 2-2 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Chelsea v Manchester United | 0-1 | 81% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-13 | Manchester United v Leeds | 1-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Crystal Palace v Newcastle | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa | 1-1 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Sunderland v Tottenham | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-12 | Chelsea v Manchester City | 0-3 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Arsenal v Bournemouth | 1-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Burnley v Brighton | 0-2 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Brentford v Everton | 2-2 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Liverpool v Fulham | 2-0 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | West Ham v Wolves | 4-0 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Newcastle v Sunderland | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Tottenham v Nottingham Forest | 0-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Aston Villa v West Ham | 2-0 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Brighton v Liverpool | 2-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Fulham v Burnley | 3-1 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Everton v Chelsea | 3-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Leeds v Brentford | 0-0 | 80% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-20 | Bournemouth v Manchester United | 2-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-16 | Brentford v Wolves | 2-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | Manchester United v Aston Villa | 3-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | Crystal Palace v Leeds | 0-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-15 | Nottingham Forest v Fulham | 0-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-15 | Liverpool v Tottenham | 1-1 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Burnley v Bournemouth | 0-0 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 | Sunderland v Brighton | 0-1 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 | Arsenal v Everton | 2-0 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Chelsea v Newcastle | 0-1 | 83% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 | West Ham v Manchester City | 1-1 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-05 | Tottenham v Crystal Palace | 1-3 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-04 | Fulham v West Ham | 0-1 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-04 | Manchester City v Nottingham Forest | 2-2 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-04 | Brighton v Arsenal | 0-1 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-04 | Aston Villa v Chelsea | 1-4 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-04 | Newcastle v Manchester United | 2-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-03 | Bournemouth v Brentford | 0-0 | 83% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-03 | Everton v Burnley | 2-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-03 | Leeds v Sunderland | 0-1 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-03 | Wolves v Liverpool | 2-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | Manchester United v Crystal Palace | 2-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | Fulham v Tottenham | 2-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | Brighton v Nottingham Forest | 2-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 2-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 1-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Newcastle v Everton | 2-3 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Liverpool v West Ham | 5-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Burnley v Brentford | 3-4 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Leeds v Manchester City | 0-1 | 83% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolves v Aston Villa | 2-0 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-23 | Everton v Manchester United | 0-1 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-22 | Crystal Palace v Wolves | 1-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-22 | Nottingham Forest v Liverpool | 0-1 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-22 | Sunderland v Fulham | 1-3 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-22 | Tottenham v Arsenal | 1-4 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | Chelsea v Burnley | 1-1 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | Brentford v Brighton | 0-2 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | Aston Villa v Leeds | 1-1 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | West Ham v Bournemouth | 0-0 | 84% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-21 | Manchester City v Newcastle | 2-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-18 | Wolves v Arsenal | 2-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-12 | Brentford v Arsenal | 1-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Manchester City v Fulham | 3-0 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Crystal Palace v Burnley | 2-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Nottingham Forest v Wolves | 0-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-11 | Aston Villa v Brighton | 1-0 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-11 | Sunderland v Liverpool | 0-1 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-10 | Everton v Bournemouth | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-10 | Tottenham v Newcastle | 1-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-10 | Chelsea v Leeds | 2-2 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-10 | West Ham v Manchester United | 1-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-08 | Brighton v Crystal Palace | 0-1 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-08 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 1-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Manchester United v Tottenham | 2-0 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Bournemouth v Aston Villa | 1-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Fulham v Everton | 1-2 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Wolves v Chelsea | 1-3 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Arsenal v Sunderland | 3-0 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Burnley v West Ham | 0-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Newcastle v Brentford | 2-3 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-06 | Leeds v Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-02 | Sunderland v Burnley | 3-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-01 | Manchester United v Fulham | 3-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-01 | Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace | 1-1 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-01 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 0-1 | 78% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-01 | Tottenham v Manchester City | 2-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-31 | Wolves v Bournemouth | 0-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-31 | Brighton v Everton | 1-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds v Arsenal | 0-4 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-31 | Chelsea v West Ham | 3-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-31 | Liverpool v Newcastle | 4-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-26 | Everton v Leeds | 1-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-25 | Newcastle v Aston Villa | 0-2 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-25 | Crystal Palace v Chelsea | 1-3 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-25 | Brentford v Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-25 | Arsenal v Manchester United | 2-3 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | West Ham v Sunderland | 3-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | Fulham v Brighton | 2-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | Burnley v Tottenham | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | Manchester City v Wolves | 2-0 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | Bournemouth v Liverpool | 3-2 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-19 | Brighton v Bournemouth | 1-1 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-18 | Wolves v Newcastle | 0-0 | 78% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-18 | Aston Villa v Everton | 0-1 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United v Manchester City | 2-0 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | Liverpool v Burnley | 1-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | Tottenham v West Ham | 1-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | Chelsea v Brentford | 2-0 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | Leeds v Fulham | 1-0 | 83% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-17 | Sunderland v Crystal Palace | 2-1 | 62% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | 0-0 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-08 | Arsenal v Liverpool | 0-0 | 79% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-07 | Bournemouth v Tottenham | 3-2 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-07 | Fulham v Chelsea | 2-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-07 | Everton v Wolves | 1-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-07 | Manchester City v Brighton | 1-1 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-07 | Crystal Palace v Aston Villa | 0-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-07 | Brentford v Sunderland | 3-0 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-07 | Newcastle v Leeds | 4-3 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-07 | Burnley v Manchester United | 2-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-06 | West Ham v Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-04 | Leeds v Manchester United | 1-1 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-04 | Newcastle v Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-04 | Everton v Brentford | 2-4 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-04 | Tottenham v Sunderland | 1-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-04 | Fulham v Liverpool | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-04 | Manchester City v Chelsea | 1-1 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-03 | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-03 | Wolves v West Ham | 3-0 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-03 | Brighton v Burnley | 2-0 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-03 | Bournemouth v Arsenal | 2-3 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-01 | Liverpool v Leeds | 0-0 | 87% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-01 | Crystal Palace v Fulham | 1-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-01 | Brentford v Tottenham | 0-0 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-01 | Sunderland v Manchester City | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |