Goal Elo
monitoring only -- not used by any card's picksAn attack/defense Elo variant tracking goal-scoring and goal-conceding strength independently of win/loss. Each team's Attack and Defense sit on a log scale where 0 is exactly league average; ratings update after every match from the gap between actual and expected goals. See scripts/goal_elo/goal_elo.py for the model.
Ratings
28 teams · K=0.025 · league avg 1.020 goals/team/match · home advantage +0.345 log-units (~41%) · seasons 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · generated 2026-09-19 10:32 UTC
Dot size = matches played (a small dot is a partial-season sample -- promoted/relegated sides). Color is combined attack+defense strength, green (strong) to red (weak). Labeled: top 3 by attack, top 3 by defense.
| Team | Attack | Defense | Atk Elo | Def Elo | GF vs avg defense | GA vs avg attack | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 0.501 | 0.298 | 1750 | 1649 | 1.68 | 0.76 | 152 |
| Palmeiras | 0.375 | 0.278 | 1687 | 1639 | 1.48 | 0.77 | 152 |
| Botafogo | 0.274 | 0.183 | 1637 | 1591 | 1.34 | 0.85 | 152 |
| Mirassol | 0.265 | 0.147 | 1632 | 1573 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 38 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 0.136 | -0.235 | 1568 | 1382 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 114 |
| Gremio | 0.112 | -0.037 | 1556 | 1481 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 114 |
| Cruzeiro | 0.092 | 0.287 | 1546 | 1643 | 1.12 | 0.77 | 114 |
| Fluminense | 0.077 | 0.265 | 1538 | 1632 | 1.10 | 0.78 | 152 |
| Fortaleza EC | 0.059 | -0.112 | 1529 | 1444 | 1.08 | 1.14 | 152 |
| Bahia | 0.041 | -0.012 | 1521 | 1494 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 114 |
| Santos | 0.029 | 0.010 | 1515 | 1505 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 114 |
| Corinthians | 0.021 | 0.016 | 1510 | 1508 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 152 |
| Internacional | 0.014 | -0.135 | 1507 | 1432 | 1.03 | 1.17 | 152 |
| Sao Paulo | 0.001 | -0.009 | 1500 | 1496 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 152 |
| RB Bragantino | -0.004 | -0.126 | 1498 | 1437 | 1.02 | 1.16 | 152 |
| Atletico-MG | -0.005 | 0.055 | 1498 | 1527 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 152 |
| America Mineiro | -0.035 | -0.201 | 1483 | 1399 | 0.98 | 1.25 | 76 |
| Coritiba | -0.044 | -0.152 | 1478 | 1424 | 0.98 | 1.19 | 76 |
| Atletico Paranaense | -0.066 | 0.004 | 1467 | 1502 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 114 |
| Avai | -0.072 | -0.065 | 1464 | 1468 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 38 |
| Criciuma | -0.074 | -0.157 | 1463 | 1421 | 0.95 | 1.19 | 38 |
| Goias | -0.101 | -0.034 | 1449 | 1483 | 0.92 | 1.06 | 76 |
| Juventude | -0.115 | -0.254 | 1443 | 1373 | 0.91 | 1.31 | 114 |
| Vitoria | -0.140 | -0.032 | 1430 | 1484 | 0.89 | 1.05 | 76 |
| Atletico Goianiense | -0.191 | -0.110 | 1404 | 1445 | 0.84 | 1.14 | 76 |
| Ceara | -0.220 | 0.120 | 1390 | 1560 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 76 |
| Cuiaba | -0.227 | 0.040 | 1386 | 1520 | 0.81 | 0.98 | 114 |
| Sport Recife | -0.253 | -0.478 | 1373 | 1261 | 0.79 | 1.64 | 38 |
Atk/Def Elo = 1500 + raw × 500 -- a cosmetic rescale for familiarity, not a real unit conversion. Chess Elo's 400-point gap has a specific meaning (10:1 win odds) that goal-scoring rate has no equivalent of. The Attack/Defense columns are what the model actually computes with.
2026 over 1.5 check
P(total goals ≥ 2) for every completed match since 2026-01-01 across all 38 tracked leagues -- the mu_home + mu_away → Poisson total construction, same as over-15-card's own math, just fed by Goal Elo's ratings instead. Each prediction used only ratings built from strictly earlier matches, compared against a baseline that knows just the league's average scoring rate and home advantage, no team identity at all.
Honest read: over 1.5 is a low bar in football (the baseline alone already expects it 76% of the time), so knowing which specific teams are playing barely moves the needle here -- skill sits close to 0% pooled, unlike the real, consistent edge Attack/Defense showed on raw expected goals. The model is well calibrated (see below), it just isn't adding much information a viewer didn't already have from the league's baseline rate.
Reliability
Matches bucketed by predicted P(over 1.5); dot = actual over-1.5 rate in that bucket (size = sample). On the dashed line means perfectly calibrated.
Skill vs no-team-identity baseline
1 − (model Brier / baseline Brier). 0% = no better than ignoring which teams are playing; a negative bar means Attack/Defense info actually hurt on that league's calls.
Biggest surprises
Lowest probability the model gave to what actually happened.
- VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-05-09)model said 96% over
- CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami (USA - MLS, 2026-07-25)model said 93% over
- Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge (Belgium - Jupiler Pro League, 2026-08-23)model said 92% over
- Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo (Spain - La Liga, 2026-04-22)model said 92% over
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-09-05)model said 92% over
- Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF (Sweden - Allsvenskan, 2026-08-31)model said 91% over
- FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (Denmark - Superliga, 2026-03-15)model said 91% over
- Always Ready 1-0 Oriente Petrolero (Bolivia - Primera Division, 2026-04-22)model said 91% over
- Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur (Australia - A-League, 2026-02-22)model said 90% over
- Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Arabia - Pro League, 2026-03-14)model said 90% over
All predictions — Brazil - Serie A (267)
Switch leagues with the tabs above the ratings table; newest match first.
| Date | Match | Score | P(over) | Actual | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Botafogo v Gremio | 3-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-14 | Bahia v Remo | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Santos v Cruzeiro | 2-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Mirassol v Vitoria | 2-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Flamengo v Corinthians | 2-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense | 3-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Gremio v Vasco DA Gama | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Atletico-MG v Fluminense | 3-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Chapecoense-sc v Internacional | 1-2 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Palmeiras v Sao Paulo | 2-0 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Botafogo v RB Bragantino | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | Vitoria v Gremio | 1-0 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-06 | Fluminense v Vasco DA Gama | 1-0 | 80% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-06 | Coritiba v Mirassol | 1-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Internacional v Santos | 2-3 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Cruzeiro v Atletico Paranaense | 3-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Remo v Flamengo | 0-1 | 80% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-06 | Botafogo v Palmeiras | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-06 | Corinthians v Chapecoense-sc | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | RB Bragantino v Bahia | 2-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Sao Paulo v Atletico-MG | 2-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | Flamengo v Mirassol | 2-0 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | Remo v Coritiba | 2-3 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Vasco DA Gama v Cruzeiro | 3-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 3-3 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 3-0 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Corinthians v Santos | 0-1 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-30 | Gremio v Chapecoense-sc | 3-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | Bahia v Internacional | 3-2 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Atletico-MG v Vitoria | 2-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Sao Paulo v RB Bragantino | 2-1 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-24 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama | 4-1 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Vitoria v Bahia | 0-2 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | RB Bragantino v Gremio | 1-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-23 | Santos v Mirassol | 1-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Chapecoense-sc v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-23 | Coritiba v Corinthians | 2-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Fluminense v Remo | 2-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Internacional v Atletico-MG | 0-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Cruzeiro v Flamengo | 2-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-17 | Internacional v Remo | 1-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Sao Paulo v Coritiba | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Chapecoense-sc v Bahia | 3-3 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Vasco DA Gama v Santos | 0-3 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Atletico-MG v Gremio | 3-0 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Vitoria v Botafogo | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-16 | Mirassol v Flamengo | 1-5 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Corinthians v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense v Palmeiras | 3-2 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Atletico Paranaense v RB Bragantino | 1-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-09 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-09 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 3-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-09 | Bahia v Vasco DA Gama | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-09 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-09 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 0-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-09 | RB Bragantino v Corinthians | 0-2 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-09 | Flamengo v Vitoria | 2-0 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | Gremio v Sao Paulo | 2-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | Remo v Atletico-MG | 2-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | Coritiba v Chapecoense-sc | 2-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | Coritiba v Cruzeiro | 0-1 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-30 | Fluminense v Bahia | 0-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-30 | Vitoria v Palmeiras | 0-4 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-30 | Corinthians v Atletico Paranaense | 0-0 | 64% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-29 | Internacional v Flamengo | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-29 | Mirassol v Remo | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | Bahia v Corinthians | 1-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | Cruzeiro v Botafogo | 0-1 | 78% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-26 | Flamengo v Sao Paulo | 1-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | Gremio v Fluminense | 1-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | RB Bragantino v Coritiba | 0-0 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-26 | Palmeiras v Atletico-MG | 1-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | Remo v Vitoria | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | Santos v Chapecoense-sc | 2-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | Atletico Paranaense v Internacional | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | Vasco DA Gama v Mirassol | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense | 1-2 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | Chapecoense-sc v Flamengo | 0-4 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | Botafogo v Vitoria | 0-0 | 81% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-23 | Corinthians v Remo | 3-0 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 1-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | Bahia v Chapecoense-sc | 2-0 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | Fluminense v RB Bragantino | 1-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | Mirassol v Gremio | 2-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-16 | Botafogo v Santos | 2-1 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-16 | Vitoria v Vasco DA Gama | 1-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-31 | RB Bragantino v Internacional | 3-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-31 | Palmeiras v Chapecoense-sc | 1-0 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-31 | Vasco DA Gama v Atletico-MG | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-31 | Cruzeiro v Fluminense | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-31 | Remo v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-30 | Flamengo v Coritiba | 3-0 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-30 | Atletico Paranaense v Mirassol | 1-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-30 | Bahia v Botafogo | 2-1 | 83% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-30 | Gremio v Corinthians | 1-3 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-30 | Santos v Vitoria | 3-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-25 | Coritiba v Bahia | 3-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Flamengo v Palmeiras | 0-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Cruzeiro v Chapecoense-sc | 2-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Remo v Atletico Paranaense | 1-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Corinthians v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-24 | Vasco DA Gama v RB Bragantino | 0-3 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Sao Paulo v Botafogo | 1-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Vitoria v Internacional | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Gremio v Santos | 3-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Mirassol v Fluminense | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-17 | Palmeiras v Cruzeiro | 1-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Santos v Coritiba | 0-3 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Bahia v Gremio | 1-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Botafogo v Corinthians | 3-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Chapecoense-sc v Remo | 2-3 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | RB Bragantino v Vitoria | 2-0 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | Internacional v Vasco DA Gama | 4-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | Atletico-MG v Mirassol | 3-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | Fluminense v Sao Paulo | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Bahia v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Atletico-MG v Botafogo | 1-1 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Remo v Palmeiras | 1-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Santos v RB Bragantino | 2-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Corinthians v Sao Paulo | 3-2 | 61% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Mirassol v Chapecoense-sc | 1-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Gremio v Flamengo | 0-1 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-10 | Vasco DA Gama v Atletico Paranaense | 1-0 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-09 | Coritiba v Internacional | 2-2 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | Fluminense v Vitoria | 2-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG | 1-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Sao Paulo v Bahia | 2-2 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Flamengo v Vasco DA Gama | 2-2 | 86% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Internacional v Fluminense | 2-0 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Chapecoense-sc v RB Bragantino | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Mirassol v Corinthians | 2-1 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Botafogo v Remo | 1-2 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Palmeiras v Santos | 1-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Vitoria v Coritiba | 4-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Atletico Paranaense v Gremio | 0-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Sao Paulo v Mirassol | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Gremio v Coritiba | 1-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Corinthians v Vasco DA Gama | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico Paranaense v Vitoria | 3-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | RB Bragantino v Palmeiras | 0-1 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Fluminense v Chapecoense-sc | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico-MG v Flamengo | 0-4 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Bahia v Santos | 2-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Botafogo v Internacional | 2-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Remo v Cruzeiro | 0-1 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-19 | Internacional v Mirassol | 1-2 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Santos v Fluminense | 2-3 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Coritiba v Atletico-MG | 2-0 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Palmeiras v Atletico Paranaense | 1-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-19 | RB Bragantino v Remo | 4-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Flamengo v Bahia | 2-0 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Chapecoense-sc v Botafogo | 1-4 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Vasco DA Gama v Sao Paulo | 2-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Vitoria v Corinthians | 0-0 | 63% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-18 | Cruzeiro v Gremio | 2-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Atletico Paranaense v Chapecoense-sc | 2-0 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Botafogo v Coritiba | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Fluminense v Flamengo | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Corinthians v Palmeiras | 0-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-12 | Cruzeiro v RB Bragantino | 2-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Vitoria v Sao Paulo | 2-0 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Remo v Vasco DA Gama | 1-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Mirassol v Bahia | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Santos v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-11 | Internacional v Gremio | 0-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-05 | Vasco DA Gama v Botafogo | 1-2 | 85% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Chapecoense-sc v Vitoria | 1-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Flamengo v Santos | 3-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Atletico-MG v Atletico Paranaense | 2-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Bahia v Palmeiras | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Corinthians v Internacional | 0-1 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-05 | Mirassol v RB Bragantino | 0-1 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-05 | Gremio v Remo | 0-0 | 78% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-04 | Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro | 4-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-04 | Coritiba v Fluminense | 1-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-03 | Palmeiras v Gremio | 2-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-03 | RB Bragantino v Flamengo | 3-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-02 | Fluminense v Corinthians | 3-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-02 | Santos v Remo | 2-0 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-02 | Chapecoense-sc v Atletico-MG | 0-4 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-01 | Internacional v Sao Paulo | 1-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-01 | Botafogo v Mirassol | 3-2 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-01 | Bahia v Atletico Paranaense | 3-0 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-01 | Cruzeiro v Vitoria | 3-0 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-01 | Coritiba v Vasco DA Gama | 1-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-29 | Atletico Paranaense v Botafogo | 4-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Sao Paulo v Palmeiras | 0-1 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-22 | Vasco DA Gama v Gremio | 2-1 | 82% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Atletico Paranaense v Coritiba | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Cruzeiro v Santos | 0-0 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-22 | Remo v Bahia | 4-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Internacional v Chapecoense-sc | 2-0 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Vitoria v Mirassol | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-22 | Corinthians v Flamengo | 1-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | RB Bragantino v Botafogo | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Fluminense v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-20 | Chapecoense-sc v Corinthians | 0-0 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-19 | Santos v Internacional | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-19 | Vasco DA Gama v Fluminense | 3-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-19 | Gremio v Vitoria | 2-0 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-19 | Flamengo v Remo | 3-0 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | Bahia v RB Bragantino | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | Palmeiras v Botafogo | 2-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro | 2-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | Atletico-MG v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-18 | Mirassol v Coritiba | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-16 | Chapecoense-sc v Gremio | 1-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | Internacional v Bahia | 0-1 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-15 | Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense | 3-2 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | Santos v Corinthians | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | Palmeiras v Mirassol | 1-0 | 82% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-15 | Coritiba v Remo | 1-0 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-15 | Cruzeiro v Vasco DA Gama | 3-3 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | RB Bragantino v Sao Paulo | 1-2 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Vitoria v Atletico-MG | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Botafogo v Flamengo | 0-3 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Gremio v RB Bragantino | 1-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Flamengo v Cruzeiro | 2-0 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Corinthians v Coritiba | 0-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Remo v Fluminense | 0-2 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras | 2-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Sao Paulo v Chapecoense-sc | 2-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Mirassol v Santos | 2-2 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Atletico-MG v Internacional | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | Bahia v Vitoria | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-26 | Palmeiras v Fluminense | 2-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-26 | Gremio v Atletico-MG | 2-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-26 | Santos v Vasco DA Gama | 2-1 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-25 | RB Bragantino v Atletico Paranaense | 1-1 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-25 | Remo v Internacional | 1-1 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-25 | Coritiba v Sao Paulo | 0-1 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-25 | Cruzeiro v Corinthians | 1-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-19 | Atletico Paranaense v Corinthians | 0-1 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-13 | Internacional v Palmeiras | 1-3 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-12 | Sao Paulo v Gremio | 2-0 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-12 | Vasco DA Gama v Bahia | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-12 | Atletico Paranaense v Santos | 2-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-12 | Fluminense v Botafogo | 1-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-12 | Corinthians v RB Bragantino | 2-0 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Vitoria v Flamengo | 1-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Chapecoense-sc v Coritiba | 3-3 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Mirassol v Cruzeiro | 2-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-11 | Atletico-MG v Remo | 3-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-06 | Cruzeiro v Coritiba | 1-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-05 | Palmeiras v Vitoria | 5-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-05 | Gremio v Botafogo | 5-3 | 76% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-05 | Bahia v Fluminense | 1-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-05 | Vasco DA Gama v Chapecoense-sc | 1-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-04 | Flamengo v Internacional | 1-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-04 | RB Bragantino v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-04 | Santos v Sao Paulo | 1-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-04 | Remo v Mirassol | 2-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-30 | Botafogo v Cruzeiro | 4-0 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-29 | Sao Paulo v Flamengo | 2-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-29 | Mirassol v Vasco DA Gama | 2-1 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-28 | Internacional v Atletico Paranaense | 0-1 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-28 | Vitoria v Remo | 2-0 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-28 | Coritiba v RB Bragantino | 0-1 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-01-28 | Atletico-MG v Palmeiras | 2-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-28 | Fluminense v Gremio | 2-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-28 | Corinthians v Bahia | 1-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-01-28 | Chapecoense-sc v Santos | 4-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |