Goal Elo

monitoring only -- not used by any card's picks

An attack/defense Elo variant tracking goal-scoring and goal-conceding strength independently of win/loss. Each team's Attack and Defense sit on a log scale where 0 is exactly league average; ratings update after every match from the gap between actual and expected goals. See scripts/goal_elo/goal_elo.py for the model.

Ratings

Argentina - Liga ProfesionalAustralia - A-LeagueAustria - BundesligaBelgium - Jupiler Pro LeagueBolivia - Primera DivisionBrazil - Serie AChile - Primera DivisionChina - Super LeagueColombia - Primera ACosta Rica - Primera DivisionDenmark - SuperligaEcuador - Liga ProEl Salvador - Primera DivisionEngland - Premier LeagueFrance - Ligue 1Germany - BundesligaGreece - Super LeagueGuatemala - Liga NacionalHonduras - Liga NacionalIndia - Indian Super LeagueItaly - Serie AJapan - J1 LeagueMexico - Liga MXNetherlands - EredivisieNorway - EliteserienParaguay - Division Profesional (Apertura)Peru - Primera DivisionPortugal - Primeira LigaRussia - Premier LeagueSaudi Arabia - Pro LeagueScotland - PremiershipSouth Africa - Premier Soccer LeagueSpain - La LigaSweden - AllsvenskanTurkey - Super LigUruguay - Primera DivisionUSA - MLSVenezuela - Primera Division

21 teams · K=0.025 · league avg 1.174 goals/team/match · home advantage +0.246 log-units (~28%) · seasons 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · generated 2026-09-19 10:32 UTC

Attack (0 = league average)Defense ↑O'Higgins -- attack 0.082 (1541 Elo), defense 0.040 (1520 Elo), 120 matchesD. La Serena -- attack -0.157 (1421 Elo), defense -0.180 (1410 Elo), 60 matchesUnion Espanola -- attack -0.012 (1494 Elo), defense -0.269 (1365 Elo), 120 matchesPalestino -- attack 0.086 (1543 Elo), defense 0.165 (1583 Elo), 120 matchesCoquimbo Unido -- attack 0.180 (1590 Elo), defense 0.417 (1709 Elo), 120 matchesCoquimbo UnidoU. Catolica -- attack 0.086 (1543 Elo), defense 0.282 (1641 Elo), 120 matchesU. CatolicaAntofagasta -- attack -0.105 (1448 Elo), defense 0.011 (1506 Elo), 30 matchesCobresal -- attack -0.008 (1496 Elo), defense -0.032 (1484 Elo), 120 matchesUnion La Calera -- attack -0.231 (1385 Elo), defense -0.002 (1499 Elo), 120 matchesUniversidad de Chile -- attack 0.296 (1648 Elo), defense 0.198 (1599 Elo), 120 matchesUniversidad de ChileColo Colo -- attack 0.131 (1566 Elo), defense 0.190 (1595 Elo), 120 matchesEverton de Vina -- attack -0.192 (1404 Elo), defense -0.005 (1498 Elo), 120 matchesA. Italiano -- attack 0.167 (1584 Elo), defense -0.041 (1479 Elo), 120 matchesA. ItalianoNublense -- attack -0.124 (1438 Elo), defense 0.079 (1539 Elo), 120 matchesCurico Unido -- attack -0.077 (1462 Elo), defense -0.127 (1437 Elo), 60 matchesHuachipato -- attack 0.022 (1511 Elo), defense -0.002 (1499 Elo), 120 matchesMagallanes -- attack -0.009 (1496 Elo), defense -0.065 (1468 Elo), 30 matchesDeportes Copiapo -- attack 0.006 (1503 Elo), defense -0.245 (1378 Elo), 60 matchesCobreloa -- attack -0.061 (1470 Elo), defense -0.182 (1409 Elo), 30 matchesDeportes Iquique -- attack 0.006 (1503 Elo), defense -0.277 (1362 Elo), 60 matchesDeportes Limache -- attack -0.038 (1481 Elo), defense -0.005 (1498 Elo), 30 matches

Dot size = matches played (a small dot is a partial-season sample -- promoted/relegated sides). Color is combined attack+defense strength, green (strong) to red (weak). Labeled: top 3 by attack, top 3 by defense.

TeamAttackDefenseAtk EloDef EloGF vs avg defenseGA vs avg attackMatches
Universidad de Chile0.2960.198164815991.580.96120
Coquimbo Unido0.1800.417159017091.400.77120
A. Italiano0.167-0.041158414791.391.22120
Colo Colo0.1310.190156615951.340.97120
U. Catolica0.0860.282154316411.280.89120
Palestino0.0860.165154315831.281.00120
O'Higgins0.0820.040154115201.271.13120
Huachipato0.022-0.002151114991.201.18120
Deportes Copiapo0.006-0.245150313781.181.5060
Deportes Iquique0.006-0.277150313621.181.5560
Cobresal-0.008-0.032149614841.171.21120
Magallanes-0.009-0.065149614681.161.2530
Union Espanola-0.012-0.269149413651.161.54120
Deportes Limache-0.038-0.005148114981.131.1830
Cobreloa-0.061-0.182147014091.101.4130
Curico Unido-0.077-0.127146214371.091.3360
Antofagasta-0.1050.011144815061.061.1630
Nublense-0.1240.079143815391.041.09120
D. La Serena-0.157-0.180142114101.001.4160
Everton de Vina-0.192-0.005140414980.971.18120
Union La Calera-0.231-0.002138514990.931.18120

Atk/Def Elo = 1500 + raw × 500 -- a cosmetic rescale for familiarity, not a real unit conversion. Chess Elo's 400-point gap has a specific meaning (10:1 win odds) that goal-scoring rate has no equivalent of. The Attack/Defense columns are what the model actually computes with.

2026 over 1.5 check

P(total goals ≥ 2) for every completed match since 2026-01-01 across all 38 tracked leagues -- the mu_home + mu_away → Poisson total construction, same as over-15-card's own math, just fed by Goal Elo's ratings instead. Each prediction used only ratings built from strictly earlier matches, compared against a baseline that knows just the league's average scoring rate and home advantage, no team identity at all.

7,770
Matches scored
75.8%
Actual over-1.5 rate
0.182
Model Brier score
-0.5%
Skill vs baseline

Honest read: over 1.5 is a low bar in football (the baseline alone already expects it 76% of the time), so knowing which specific teams are playing barely moves the needle here -- skill sits close to 0% pooled, unlike the real, consistent edge Attack/Defense showed on raw expected goals. The model is well calibrated (see below), it just isn't adding much information a viewer didn't already have from the league's baseline rate.

Reliability

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Predicted P(over 1.5)Actual over-1.5 rateperfect calibrationpredicted ~50%, actually over 1.5 51% of the time (n=45)predicted ~55%, actually over 1.5 67% of the time (n=177)predicted ~60%, actually over 1.5 65% of the time (n=428)predicted ~65%, actually over 1.5 71% of the time (n=967)predicted ~70%, actually over 1.5 74% of the time (n=1564)predicted ~75%, actually over 1.5 76% of the time (n=1858)predicted ~80%, actually over 1.5 79% of the time (n=1593)predicted ~85%, actually over 1.5 84% of the time (n=835)predicted ~90%, actually over 1.5 87% of the time (n=243)predicted ~95%, actually over 1.5 95% of the time (n=44)

Matches bucketed by predicted P(over 1.5); dot = actual over-1.5 rate in that bucket (size = sample). On the dashed line means perfectly calibrated.

Skill vs no-team-identity baseline

Peru - Primera Division
5.0%
Bolivia - Primera Division
3.8%
South Africa - Premier Soccer League
3.2%
Turkey - Super Lig
2.2%
Portugal - Primeira Liga
2.1%
Ecuador - Liga Pro
1.8%
Russia - Premier League
1.1%
China - Super League
1.1%
USA - MLS
1.0%
Australia - A-League
0.9%
Brazil - Serie A
0.4%
Argentina - Liga Profesional
0.3%
Colombia - Primera A
0.1%
Costa Rica - Primera Division
0.0%
Chile - Primera Division
-0.2%
Norway - Eliteserien
-0.2%
France - Ligue 1
-0.3%
Greece - Super League
-0.5%
Guatemala - Liga Nacional
-0.6%
Spain - La Liga
-0.6%
Italy - Serie A
-1.1%
Netherlands - Eredivisie
-1.3%
El Salvador - Primera Division
-1.3%
Uruguay - Primera Division
-1.4%
Honduras - Liga Nacional
-1.6%
Sweden - Allsvenskan
-1.9%
Denmark - Superliga
-2.1%
Mexico - Liga MX
-2.4%
Paraguay - Division Profesional (Apertura)
-2.4%
Saudi Arabia - Pro League
-2.6%
England - Premier League
-2.7%
India - Indian Super League
-2.9%
Austria - Bundesliga
-2.9%
Scotland - Premiership
-3.0%
Venezuela - Primera Division
-3.3%
Japan - J1 League
-3.5%
Belgium - Jupiler Pro League
-4.1%
Germany - Bundesliga
-4.7%

1 − (model Brier / baseline Brier). 0% = no better than ignoring which teams are playing; a negative bar means Attack/Defense info actually hurt on that league's calls.

Biggest surprises

Lowest probability the model gave to what actually happened.

  • VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-05-09)model said 96% over
  • CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami (USA - MLS, 2026-07-25)model said 93% over
  • Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge (Belgium - Jupiler Pro League, 2026-08-23)model said 92% over
  • Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo (Spain - La Liga, 2026-04-22)model said 92% over
  • FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-09-05)model said 92% over
  • Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF (Sweden - Allsvenskan, 2026-08-31)model said 91% over
  • FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (Denmark - Superliga, 2026-03-15)model said 91% over
  • Always Ready 1-0 Oriente Petrolero (Bolivia - Primera Division, 2026-04-22)model said 91% over
  • Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur (Australia - A-League, 2026-02-22)model said 90% over
  • Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Arabia - Pro League, 2026-03-14)model said 90% over

All predictions — Chile - Primera Division (183)

Switch leagues with the tabs above the ratings table; newest match first.

DateMatchScoreP(over)ActualCall
2026-09-16Coquimbo Unido v Huachipato0-182%under✗
2026-09-14Union La Calera v Deportes Limache1-078%under✗
2026-09-13D. La Serena v Universidad de Chile0-378%over✓
2026-09-13Colo Colo v Concepción1-177%over✓
2026-09-13A. Italiano v O'Higgins1-077%under✗
2026-09-12Nublense v Everton de Vina1-368%over✓
2026-09-12Cobresal v Coquimbo Unido3-278%over✓
2026-09-12Palestino v U. Catolica2-381%over✓
2026-09-07Deportes Limache v Cobresal3-088%over✓
2026-09-06Universidad de Chile v Coquimbo Unido4-267%over✓
2026-09-06D. La Serena v Nublense2-176%over✓
2026-09-06O'Higgins v Union La Calera2-174%over✓
2026-09-06Huachipato v Colo Colo0-088%under✗
2026-09-06Palestino v Universidad de Concepcion2-176%over✓
2026-09-05Concepción v A. Italiano0-173%under✗
2026-09-05Everton de Vina v U. Catolica0-180%under✗
2026-09-03Deportes Limache v Nublense2-080%over✓
2026-09-02Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepcion1-074%under✗
2026-09-01U. Catolica v O'Higgins3-283%over✓
2026-08-31Union La Calera v D. La Serena0-178%under✗
2026-08-30Nublense v Concepción0-170%under✗
2026-08-30Universidad de Concepcion v Universidad de Chile2-170%over✓
2026-08-30Colo Colo v A. Italiano5-182%over✓
2026-08-29Deportes Limache v Everton de Vina0-382%over✓
2026-08-28Cobresal v Palestino2-083%over✓
2026-08-26Coquimbo Unido v U. Catolica1-277%over✓
2026-08-24Everton de Vina v Universidad de Concepcion3-171%over✓
2026-08-23U. Catolica v Nublense1-280%over✓
2026-08-23D. La Serena v Cobresal3-384%over✓
2026-08-23Concepción v Coquimbo Unido1-169%over✓
2026-08-23Universidad de Chile v Colo Colo1-275%over✓
2026-08-23O'Higgins v Palestino0-179%under✗
2026-08-22A. Italiano v Union La Calera0-076%under✗
2026-08-22Huachipato v Deportes Limache1-388%over✓
2026-08-18Palestino v Huachipato5-182%over✓
2026-08-16Everton de Vina v A. Italiano1-175%over✓
2026-08-16Nublense v Union La Calera2-173%over✓
2026-08-16Cobresal v Concepción0-278%over✓
2026-08-16Colo Colo v O'Higgins2-283%over✓
2026-08-15Deportes Limache v Universidad de Chile1-377%over✓
2026-08-14Universidad de Concepcion v D. La Serena0-277%over✓
2026-08-11A. Italiano v Nublense2-272%over✓
2026-08-10Universidad de Chile v Palestino2-171%over✓
2026-08-09Concepción v Universidad de Concepcion1-073%under✗
2026-08-09O'Higgins v Deportes Limache1-382%over✓
2026-08-09Union La Calera v Colo Colo1-279%over✓
2026-08-08U. Catolica v Cobresal2-089%over✓
2026-08-08Huachipato v Everton de Vina1-476%over✓
2026-08-08Coquimbo Unido v D. La Serena1-181%over✓
2026-08-02Concepción v U. Catolica3-080%over✓
2026-08-02D. La Serena v O'Higgins1-280%over✓
2026-08-02Universidad de Chile v Huachipato2-077%over✓
2026-08-01Universidad de Concepcion v A. Italiano0-176%under✗
2026-08-01Cobresal v Union La Calera4-079%over✓
2026-08-01Everton de Vina v Colo Colo3-470%over✓
2026-08-01Palestino v Coquimbo Unido2-172%over✓
2026-07-27Concepción v O'Higgins2-075%over✓
2026-07-27Union La Calera v Everton de Vina1-167%over✓
2026-07-26U. Catolica v D. La Serena3-387%over✓
2026-07-26Nublense v Palestino2-073%over✓
2026-07-26A. Italiano v Universidad de Chile1-271%over✓
2026-07-25Colo Colo v Deportes Limache3-183%over✓
2026-07-25Huachipato v Cobresal3-383%over✓
2026-06-19Universidad de Chile v O'Higgins2-073%over✓
2026-06-14Nublense v Huachipato2-273%over✓
2026-06-14Concepción v Deportes Limache3-277%over✓
2026-06-14Union La Calera v Universidad de Chile2-266%over✓
2026-06-14U. Catolica v Universidad de Concepcion5-180%over✓
2026-06-13A. Italiano v D. La Serena1-182%over✓
2026-06-13Coquimbo Unido v O'Higgins0-079%under✗
2026-06-13Everton de Vina v Palestino1-269%over✓
2026-06-13Colo Colo v Cobresal3-084%over✓
2026-06-01Palestino v A. Italiano0-082%under✗
2026-05-31Deportes Limache v Coquimbo Unido2-376%over✓
2026-05-31Huachipato v U. Catolica0-380%over✓
2026-05-31O'Higgins v Everton de Vina2-369%over✓
2026-05-30Universidad de Concepcion v Union La Calera0-073%under✗
2026-05-30D. La Serena v Colo Colo2-477%over✓
2026-05-30Universidad de Chile v Concepción2-169%over✓
2026-05-29Cobresal v Nublense0-178%under✗
2026-05-24Union La Calera v Palestino1-275%over✓
2026-05-24Concepción v Huachipato2-075%over✓
2026-05-24D. La Serena v Deportes Limache4-179%over✓
2026-05-24U. Catolica v Colo Colo1-277%over✓
2026-05-23A. Italiano v Cobresal2-185%over✓
2026-05-23Nublense v Universidad de Concepcion2-270%over✓
2026-05-22Everton de Vina v Coquimbo Unido1-165%over✓
2026-05-18Concepción v Everton de Vina0-265%over✓
2026-05-17Deportes Limache v U. Catolica0-281%over✓
2026-05-17Huachipato v Union La Calera3-176%over✓
2026-05-17Cobresal v Universidad de Chile1-077%under✗
2026-05-17Colo Colo v Nublense6-264%over✓
2026-05-16Palestino v D. La Serena5-176%over✓
2026-05-16Coquimbo Unido v A. Italiano3-078%over✓
2026-05-16O'Higgins v Universidad de Concepcion0-178%under✗
2026-05-03Colo Colo v Coquimbo Unido3-165%over✓
2026-04-26D. La Serena v Huachipato0-079%under✗
2026-04-26Universidad de Concepcion v Colo Colo1-267%over✓
2026-04-26Everton de Vina v Cobresal3-173%over✓
2026-04-25A. Italiano v Deportes Limache2-280%over✓
2026-04-25Nublense v O'Higgins0-271%over✓
2026-04-25Universidad de Chile v U. Catolica1-076%under✗
2026-04-24Palestino v Concepción0-177%under✗
2026-04-24Union La Calera v Coquimbo Unido1-268%over✓
2026-04-21U. Catolica v Union La Calera1-281%over✓
2026-04-20Huachipato v A. Italiano3-280%over✓
2026-04-19Concepción v D. La Serena3-371%over✓
2026-04-19Coquimbo Unido v Nublense1-166%over✓
2026-04-19Cobresal v O'Higgins2-381%over✓
2026-04-19Colo Colo v Palestino0-173%under✗
2026-04-18Deportes Limache v Universidad de Concepcion3-078%over✓
2026-04-18Everton de Vina v Universidad de Chile0-065%under✗
2026-04-14Union La Calera v Concepción1-071%under✗
2026-04-13Universidad de Concepcion v Cobresal1-081%under✗
2026-04-12Palestino v Deportes Limache1-081%under✗
2026-04-12Nublense v Universidad de Chile1-066%under✗
2026-04-11O'Higgins v Huachipato0-280%over✓
2026-04-11D. La Serena v Everton de Vina1-069%under✗
2026-04-11A. Italiano v U. Catolica3-477%over✓
2026-04-07Huachipato v Universidad de Concepcion5-174%over✓
2026-04-05Concepción v Colo Colo0-168%under✗
2026-04-05Universidad de Chile v D. La Serena4-074%over✓
2026-04-04Deportes Limache v Union La Calera4-077%over✓
2026-04-04Everton de Vina v Nublense0-065%under✗
2026-04-03Coquimbo Unido v Cobresal3-278%over✓
2026-04-03O'Higgins v A. Italiano2-176%over✓
2026-04-02U. Catolica v Palestino6-176%over✓
2026-03-16Union La Calera v O'Higgins3-370%over✓
2026-03-16Colo Colo v Huachipato2-073%over✓
2026-03-15Universidad de Concepcion v Palestino1-076%under✗
2026-03-15Cobresal v Deportes Limache2-577%over✓
2026-03-15Nublense v D. La Serena2-268%over✓
2026-03-14Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Chile0-169%under✗
2026-03-14U. Catolica v Everton de Vina2-271%over✓
2026-03-13A. Italiano v Concepción3-073%over✓
2026-03-09Universidad de Chile v Universidad de Concepcion1-175%over✓
2026-03-08Palestino v Cobresal4-276%over✓
2026-03-07Everton de Vina v Deportes Limache1-071%under✗
2026-03-07Huachipato v Coquimbo Unido1-370%over✓
2026-03-07A. Italiano v Colo Colo0-171%under✗
2026-03-07O'Higgins v U. Catolica1-076%under✗
2026-03-06D. La Serena v Union La Calera3-067%over✓
2026-03-06Concepción v Nublense0-268%over✓
2026-03-01Universidad de Concepcion v Everton de Vina0-370%over✓
2026-03-01Colo Colo v Universidad de Chile0-171%under✗
2026-03-01Nublense v U. Catolica1-268%over✓
2026-02-28Coquimbo Unido v Concepción0-173%under✗
2026-02-28Deportes Limache v Huachipato3-076%over✓
2026-02-28Palestino v O'Higgins4-272%over✓
2026-02-27Cobresal v D. La Serena0-176%under✗
2026-02-27Union La Calera v A. Italiano3-069%over✓
2026-02-22D. La Serena v Universidad de Concepcion1-173%over✓
2026-02-22A. Italiano v Everton de Vina1-074%under✗
2026-02-22Universidad de Chile v Deportes Limache2-275%over✓
2026-02-21Huachipato v Palestino2-172%over✓
2026-02-21O'Higgins v Colo Colo0-173%under✗
2026-02-21U. Catolica v Coquimbo Unido3-168%over✓
2026-02-20Union La Calera v Nublense0-164%under✗
2026-02-20Concepción v Cobresal1-177%over✓
2026-02-15Universidad de Concepcion v Concepción2-174%over✓
2026-02-15Nublense v A. Italiano1-072%under✗
2026-02-15Colo Colo v Union La Calera1-072%under✗
2026-02-14D. La Serena v Coquimbo Unido0-172%under✗
2026-02-14Deportes Limache v O'Higgins2-174%over✓
2026-02-14Cobresal v U. Catolica3-272%over✓
2026-02-13Everton de Vina v Huachipato0-369%over✓
2026-02-13Palestino v Universidad de Chile0-074%under✗
2026-02-09Union La Calera v Cobresal3-169%over✓
2026-02-08Huachipato v Universidad de Chile2-174%over✓
2026-02-08Nublense v Deportes Limache1-171%over✓
2026-02-08U. Catolica v Concepción2-074%over✓
2026-02-07Coquimbo Unido v Palestino3-169%over✓
2026-02-07O'Higgins v D. La Serena1-079%under✗
2026-02-07Colo Colo v Everton de Vina2-072%over✓
2026-02-06A. Italiano v Universidad de Concepcion3-076%over✓
2026-02-02Everton de Vina v Union La Calera0-167%under✗
2026-02-02O'Higgins v Concepción2-176%over✓
2026-02-01D. La Serena v U. Catolica2-272%over✓
2026-02-01Palestino v Nublense1-171%over✓
2026-01-31Deportes Limache v Colo Colo3-173%over✓
2026-01-31Universidad de Concepcion v Coquimbo Unido1-071%under✗
2026-01-31Cobresal v Huachipato1-076%under✗
2026-01-30Universidad de Chile v A. Italiano0-081%under✗