Goal Elo
monitoring only -- not used by any card's picksAn attack/defense Elo variant tracking goal-scoring and goal-conceding strength independently of win/loss. Each team's Attack and Defense sit on a log scale where 0 is exactly league average; ratings update after every match from the gap between actual and expected goals. See scripts/goal_elo/goal_elo.py for the model.
Ratings
23 teams · K=0.025 · league avg 1.103 goals/team/match · home advantage +0.151 log-units (~16%) · seasons 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · generated 2026-09-19 10:32 UTC
Dot size = matches played (a small dot is a partial-season sample -- promoted/relegated sides). Color is combined attack+defense strength, green (strong) to red (weak). Labeled: top 3 by attack, top 3 by defense.
| Team | Attack | Defense | Atk Elo | Def Elo | GF vs avg defense | GA vs avg attack | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 0.541 | 0.206 | 1771 | 1603 | 1.90 | 0.90 | 90 |
| Penarol | 0.283 | 0.276 | 1641 | 1638 | 1.46 | 0.84 | 90 |
| Juventud | 0.209 | 0.023 | 1605 | 1511 | 1.36 | 1.08 | 22 |
| Defensor Sporting | 0.150 | 0.128 | 1575 | 1564 | 1.28 | 0.97 | 89 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0.135 | 0.036 | 1567 | 1518 | 1.26 | 1.06 | 89 |
| La Luz | 0.028 | -0.157 | 1514 | 1421 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 22 |
| Racing Montevideo | 0.016 | 0.182 | 1508 | 1591 | 1.12 | 0.92 | 66 |
| Atletico Torque | 0.008 | -0.147 | 1504 | 1427 | 1.11 | 1.28 | 66 |
| Albion FC | -0.019 | -0.061 | 1491 | 1470 | 1.08 | 1.17 | 22 |
| Rampla Juniors | -0.021 | -0.126 | 1489 | 1437 | 1.08 | 1.25 | 22 |
| Boston River | -0.050 | -0.015 | 1475 | 1493 | 1.05 | 1.12 | 88 |
| Rentistas | -0.051 | -0.050 | 1475 | 1475 | 1.05 | 1.16 | 22 |
| Danubio | -0.057 | -0.017 | 1471 | 1491 | 1.04 | 1.12 | 88 |
| Progreso | -0.063 | -0.179 | 1468 | 1410 | 1.04 | 1.32 | 44 |
| Deportivo Maldonado | -0.094 | -0.028 | 1453 | 1486 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 66 |
| Fenix | -0.105 | 0.050 | 1447 | 1525 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 66 |
| Cerrito | -0.106 | -0.094 | 1447 | 1453 | 0.99 | 1.21 | 22 |
| Cerro | -0.108 | -0.020 | 1446 | 1490 | 0.99 | 1.13 | 66 |
| Cerro Largo | -0.135 | 0.031 | 1433 | 1515 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 88 |
| Wanderers | -0.135 | 0.134 | 1433 | 1567 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 88 |
| Plaza Colonia | -0.135 | 0.058 | 1432 | 1529 | 0.96 | 1.04 | 66 |
| CA River Plate | -0.168 | -0.078 | 1416 | 1461 | 0.93 | 1.19 | 88 |
| Miramar | -0.172 | -0.106 | 1414 | 1447 | 0.93 | 1.23 | 44 |
Atk/Def Elo = 1500 + raw × 500 -- a cosmetic rescale for familiarity, not a real unit conversion. Chess Elo's 400-point gap has a specific meaning (10:1 win odds) that goal-scoring rate has no equivalent of. The Attack/Defense columns are what the model actually computes with.
2026 over 1.5 check
P(total goals ≥ 2) for every completed match since 2026-01-01 across all 38 tracked leagues -- the mu_home + mu_away → Poisson total construction, same as over-15-card's own math, just fed by Goal Elo's ratings instead. Each prediction used only ratings built from strictly earlier matches, compared against a baseline that knows just the league's average scoring rate and home advantage, no team identity at all.
Honest read: over 1.5 is a low bar in football (the baseline alone already expects it 76% of the time), so knowing which specific teams are playing barely moves the needle here -- skill sits close to 0% pooled, unlike the real, consistent edge Attack/Defense showed on raw expected goals. The model is well calibrated (see below), it just isn't adding much information a viewer didn't already have from the league's baseline rate.
Reliability
Matches bucketed by predicted P(over 1.5); dot = actual over-1.5 rate in that bucket (size = sample). On the dashed line means perfectly calibrated.
Skill vs no-team-identity baseline
1 − (model Brier / baseline Brier). 0% = no better than ignoring which teams are playing; a negative bar means Attack/Defense info actually hurt on that league's calls.
Biggest surprises
Lowest probability the model gave to what actually happened.
- VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-05-09)model said 96% over
- CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami (USA - MLS, 2026-07-25)model said 93% over
- Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge (Belgium - Jupiler Pro League, 2026-08-23)model said 92% over
- Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo (Spain - La Liga, 2026-04-22)model said 92% over
- FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-09-05)model said 92% over
- Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF (Sweden - Allsvenskan, 2026-08-31)model said 91% over
- FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (Denmark - Superliga, 2026-03-15)model said 91% over
- Always Ready 1-0 Oriente Petrolero (Bolivia - Primera Division, 2026-04-22)model said 91% over
- Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur (Australia - A-League, 2026-02-22)model said 90% over
- Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Arabia - Pro League, 2026-03-14)model said 90% over
All predictions — Uruguay - Primera Division (224)
Switch leagues with the tabs above the ratings table; newest match first.
| Date | Match | Score | P(over) | Actual | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Atletico Torque v Liverpool Montevideo | 3-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Progreso v Cerro | 1-3 | 61% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Juventud v Danubio | 1-1 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | Defensor Sporting v Deportivo Maldonado | 1-0 | 64% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-13 | Penarol v Albion FC | 3-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Racing Montevideo v Boston River | 3-2 | 59% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Wanderers v Club Nacional | 1-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | Cerro Largo v Central Espanol | 0-0 | 62% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-07 | Albion FC v Progreso | 0-1 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-06 | Cerro v Racing Montevideo | 1-0 | 59% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-06 | Central Espanol v Defensor Sporting | 1-1 | 63% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Club Nacional v Juventud | 2-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | Liverpool Montevideo v Boston River | 1-0 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-09-05 | Danubio v Penarol | 0-4 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | Deportivo Maldonado v Wanderers | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-09-04 | Atletico Torque v Cerro Largo | 2-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | Racing Montevideo v Albion FC | 1-0 | 64% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-30 | Penarol v Club Nacional | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-30 | Cerro Largo v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-1 | 63% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Progreso v Danubio | 1-0 | 60% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | Juventud v Deportivo Maldonado | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Boston River v Cerro | 1-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | Defensor Sporting v Atletico Torque | 1-3 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | Wanderers v Central Espanol | 3-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Danubio v Racing Montevideo | 0-0 | 58% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-23 | Atletico Torque v Wanderers | 5-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Club Nacional v Progreso | 1-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Central Espanol v Juventud | 0-1 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Cerro Largo v Defensor Sporting | 1-1 | 58% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Deportivo Maldonado v Penarol | 0-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-21 | Albion FC v Boston River | 2-3 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-21 | Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro | 4-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Progreso v Deportivo Maldonado | 0-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Defensor Sporting v Liverpool Montevideo | 0-4 | 59% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-16 | Penarol v Central Espanol | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Cerro v Albion FC | 2-1 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Juventud v Atletico Torque | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Racing Montevideo v Club Nacional | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Wanderers v Cerro Largo | 1-1 | 62% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | Boston River v Danubio | 0-0 | 64% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | Deportivo Maldonado v Racing Montevideo | 2-2 | 62% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-09 | Danubio v Cerro | 0-1 | 64% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-09 | Defensor Sporting v Wanderers | 0-1 | 62% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-09 | Club Nacional v Boston River | 1-2 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | Central Espanol v Progreso | 1-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-08 | Liverpool Montevideo v Albion FC | 1-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-07 | Cerro Largo v Juventud | 1-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | Penarol v Wanderers | 5-1 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-03 | Defensor Sporting v Cerro | 2-1 | 60% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-02 | Racing Montevideo v Boston River | 1-0 | 63% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-02 | Central Espanol v Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-02 | Club Nacional v Progreso | 2-1 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-01 | Albion FC v Danubio | 2-2 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-08-01 | Deportivo Maldonado v Juventud | 0-0 | 78% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-08-01 | Penarol v Cerro Largo | 3-0 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | Atletico Torque v Wanderers | 0-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | Cerro v Racing Montevideo | 1-0 | 61% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-25 | Central Espanol v Cerro Largo | 0-1 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-25 | Defensor Sporting v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-2 | 60% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | Atletico Torque v Danubio | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-18 | Progreso v Deportivo Maldonado | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-18 | Penarol v Boston River | 3-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | Albion FC v Juventud | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-17 | Club Nacional v Wanderers | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | Cerro Largo v Defensor Sporting | 1-1 | 57% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-12 | Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro | 1-2 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-12 | Boston River v Central Espanol | 0-0 | 72% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-12 | Racing Montevideo v Penarol | 1-1 | 62% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-11 | Juventud v Atletico Torque | 1-3 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-11 | Danubio v Club Nacional | 0-0 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-07-11 | Wanderers v Progreso | 2-0 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-10 | Deportivo Maldonado v Albion FC | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | Danubio v Juventud | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo | 0-0 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-06-07 | Progreso v Albion FC | 1-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-06-07 | Cerro v Penarol | 0-1 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-06-07 | Defensor Sporting v Boston River | 1-1 | 63% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | Central Espanol v Racing Montevideo | 1-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | Atletico Torque v Deportivo Maldonado | 2-4 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | Club Nacional v Juventud | 2-1 | 84% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-06-05 | Wanderers v Danubio | 0-0 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-06-01 | Boston River v Liverpool Montevideo | 0-1 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-06-01 | Penarol v Central Espanol | 0-1 | 77% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-31 | Albion FC v Atletico Torque | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-31 | Juventud v Wanderers | 2-5 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-31 | Deportivo Maldonado v Club Nacional | 3-0 | 79% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-30 | Racing Montevideo v Defensor Sporting | 0-0 | 59% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-30 | Danubio v Progreso | 1-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-29 | Cerro Largo v Cerro | 2-0 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Cerro v Central Espanol | 1-0 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-24 | Wanderers v Deportivo Maldonado | 1-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | Defensor Sporting v Penarol | 0-2 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Progreso v Atletico Torque | 1-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Cerro Largo v Boston River | 3-0 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | Club Nacional v Albion FC | 1-0 | 81% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-22 | Liverpool Montevideo v Racing Montevideo | 0-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-18 | Deportivo Maldonado v Danubio | 3-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Central Espanol v Defensor Sporting | 2-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo | 1-0 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-17 | Albion FC v Wanderers | 0-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-16 | Boston River v Cerro | 4-1 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | Juventud v Progreso | 2-0 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | Penarol v Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | Atletico Torque v Club Nacional | 1-2 | 81% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | Deportivo Maldonado v Boston River | 2-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | Cerro Largo v Penarol | 2-3 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Defensor Sporting v Juventud | 1-2 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Atletico Torque v Progreso | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | Club Nacional v Cerro | 4-0 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | Danubio v Albion FC | 0-1 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-09 | Central Espanol v Racing Montevideo | 2-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-08 | Wanderers v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-04 | Penarol v Defensor Sporting | 1-1 | 62% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Progreso v Cerro Largo | 0-1 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-03 | Boston River v Central Espanol | 2-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Racing Montevideo v Atletico Torque | 1-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-03 | Albion FC v Club Nacional | 3-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Juventud v Wanderers | 2-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-05-02 | Cerro v Deportivo Maldonado | 0-1 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-05-02 | Liverpool Montevideo v Danubio | 3-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-27 | Defensor Sporting v Progreso | 1-0 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Central Espanol v Cerro | 3-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | Cerro Largo v Racing Montevideo | 0-1 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-26 | Wanderers v Penarol | 1-0 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | Juventud v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Deportivo Maldonado v Albion FC | 1-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | Club Nacional v Danubio | 1-2 | 80% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | Atletico Torque v Boston River | 4-1 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-20 | Boston River v Cerro Largo | 1-0 | 64% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-20 | Penarol v Juventud | 2-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Cerro v Atletico Torque | 1-1 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Danubio v Deportivo Maldonado | 1-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | Liverpool Montevideo v Club Nacional | 1-3 | 78% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Progreso v Wanderers | 2-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-18 | Racing Montevideo v Defensor Sporting | 1-1 | 63% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-17 | Albion FC v Central Espanol | 6-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-13 | Penarol v Liverpool Montevideo | 0-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Central Espanol v Danubio | 2-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-12 | Juventud v Progreso | 1-0 | 76% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-12 | Wanderers v Racing Montevideo | 1-2 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Atletico Torque v Albion FC | 0-1 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-11 | Defensor Sporting v Boston River | 2-0 | 61% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-11 | Deportivo Maldonado v Club Nacional | 4-2 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | Cerro Largo v Cerro | 1-1 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Albion FC v Cerro Largo | 2-2 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-05 | Cerro v Defensor Sporting | 1-0 | 61% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-04-05 | Liverpool Montevideo v Deportivo Maldonado | 0-2 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-04 | Racing Montevideo v Juventud | 2-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-04 | Danubio v Atletico Torque | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-04 | Progreso v Penarol | 0-2 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-03 | Boston River v Wanderers | 4-1 | 60% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-04-03 | Club Nacional v Central Espanol | 0-1 | 79% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-31 | Central Espanol v Deportivo Maldonado | 2-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-31 | Progreso v Liverpool Montevideo | 3-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-31 | Defensor Sporting v Albion FC | 1-1 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | Juventud v Boston River | 1-2 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | Cerro Largo v Danubio | 2-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-29 | Penarol v Racing Montevideo | 1-2 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-28 | Wanderers v Cerro | 3-0 | 60% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-28 | Atletico Torque v Club Nacional | 2-3 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-26 | Racing Montevideo v Progreso | 1-1 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-26 | Danubio v Defensor Sporting | 0-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-25 | Albion FC v Wanderers | 2-1 | 63% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-25 | Cerro v Juventud | 1-0 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-25 | Boston River v Penarol | 0-2 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-24 | Deportivo Maldonado v Atletico Torque | 1-0 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-24 | Liverpool Montevideo v Central Espanol | 3-3 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-24 | Club Nacional v Cerro Largo | 3-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-22 | Juventud v Albion FC | 0-1 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-22 | Progreso v Boston River | 0-1 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-21 | Defensor Sporting v Club Nacional | 2-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Racing Montevideo v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-0 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-21 | Atletico Torque v Central Espanol | 2-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Wanderers v Danubio | 2-1 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-21 | Penarol v Cerro | 3-1 | 68% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-20 | Cerro Largo v Deportivo Maldonado | 3-1 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-16 | Danubio v Juventud | 4-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-16 | Liverpool Montevideo v Atletico Torque | 0-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-15 | Central Espanol v Cerro Largo | 1-3 | 62% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | Deportivo Maldonado v Defensor Sporting | 1-0 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 | Cerro v Progreso | 0-1 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 | Boston River v Racing Montevideo | 0-1 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 | Albion FC v Penarol | 0-1 | 71% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | Club Nacional v Wanderers | 2-0 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 | Boston River v Liverpool Montevideo | 0-1 | 68% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-09 | Cerro Largo v Atletico Torque | 0-1 | 69% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-08 | Racing Montevideo v Cerro | 1-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-08 | Juventud v Club Nacional | 3-1 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-08 | Defensor Sporting v Central Espanol | 0-0 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-07 | Progreso v Albion FC | 2-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-07 | Penarol v Danubio | 1-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-06 | Wanderers v Deportivo Maldonado | 0-0 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-03-02 | Deportivo Maldonado v Juventud | 2-1 | 72% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo | 2-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | Club Nacional v Penarol | 0-1 | 75% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-28 | Albion FC v Racing Montevideo | 1-3 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Danubio v Progreso | 2-2 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | Central Espanol v Wanderers | 0-1 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-27 | Cerro v Boston River | 1-1 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-26 | Atletico Torque v Defensor Sporting | 1-0 | 74% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-22 | Wanderers v Atletico Torque | 0-4 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-22 | Juventud v Central Espanol | 0-1 | 73% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-22 | Penarol v Deportivo Maldonado | 2-1 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | Defensor Sporting v Cerro Largo | 1-0 | 67% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-21 | Racing Montevideo v Danubio | 4-0 | 66% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | Boston River v Albion FC | 0-0 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-21 | Progreso v Club Nacional | 0-1 | 79% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-20 | Cerro v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-1 | 69% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-17 | Atletico Torque v Juventud | 2-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-16 | Albion FC v Cerro | 3-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-15 | Danubio v Boston River | 2-0 | 67% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-15 | Central Espanol v Penarol | 2-1 | 70% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-14 | Liverpool Montevideo v Defensor Sporting | 1-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-14 | Deportivo Maldonado v Progreso | 2-0 | 73% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-14 | Club Nacional v Racing Montevideo | 1-1 | 77% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | Cerro Largo v Wanderers | 1-2 | 59% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-09 | Cerro v Danubio | 0-1 | 66% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-08 | Juventud v Cerro Largo | 0-1 | 70% | under | ✗ |
| 2026-02-08 | Racing Montevideo v Deportivo Maldonado | 2-4 | 65% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-08 | Boston River v Club Nacional | 1-2 | 75% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Wanderers v Defensor Sporting | 1-1 | 64% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Progreso v Central Espanol | 0-3 | 71% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-07 | Penarol v Atletico Torque | 3-1 | 74% | over | ✓ |
| 2026-02-06 | Albion FC v Liverpool Montevideo | 1-2 | 71% | over | ✓ |