Goal Elo

monitoring only -- not used by any card's picks

An attack/defense Elo variant tracking goal-scoring and goal-conceding strength independently of win/loss. Each team's Attack and Defense sit on a log scale where 0 is exactly league average; ratings update after every match from the gap between actual and expected goals. See scripts/goal_elo/goal_elo.py for the model.

Ratings

Argentina - Liga ProfesionalAustralia - A-LeagueAustria - BundesligaBelgium - Jupiler Pro LeagueBolivia - Primera DivisionBrazil - Serie AChile - Primera DivisionChina - Super LeagueColombia - Primera ACosta Rica - Primera DivisionDenmark - SuperligaEcuador - Liga ProEl Salvador - Primera DivisionEngland - Premier LeagueFrance - Ligue 1Germany - BundesligaGreece - Super LeagueGuatemala - Liga NacionalHonduras - Liga NacionalIndia - Indian Super LeagueItaly - Serie AJapan - J1 LeagueMexico - Liga MXNetherlands - EredivisieNorway - EliteserienParaguay - Division Profesional (Apertura)Peru - Primera DivisionPortugal - Primeira LigaRussia - Premier LeagueSaudi Arabia - Pro LeagueScotland - PremiershipSouth Africa - Premier Soccer LeagueSpain - La LigaSweden - AllsvenskanTurkey - Super LigUruguay - Primera DivisionUSA - MLSVenezuela - Primera Division

26 teams · K=0.025 · league avg 1.014 goals/team/match · home advantage +0.462 log-units (~59%) · seasons 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · generated 2026-09-19 10:32 UTC

Attack (0 = league average)Defense ↑Cesar Vallejo -- attack -0.105 (1447 Elo), defense -0.072 (1464 Elo), 106 matchesCienciano -- attack 0.195 (1597 Elo), defense 0.052 (1526 Elo), 141 matchesUTC Cajamarca -- attack -0.231 (1385 Elo), defense -0.155 (1423 Elo), 142 matchesSport Boys -- attack -0.152 (1424 Elo), defense -0.078 (1461 Elo), 141 matchesAlianza Lima -- attack 0.249 (1624 Elo), defense 0.350 (1675 Elo), 147 matchesAlianza LimaAtletico Grau -- attack -0.044 (1478 Elo), defense 0.071 (1535 Elo), 141 matchesDeportivo Municipal -- attack -0.071 (1465 Elo), defense -0.082 (1459 Elo), 72 matchesAyacucho FC -- attack -0.169 (1415 Elo), defense -0.072 (1464 Elo), 70 matchesSport Huancayo -- attack 0.141 (1570 Elo), defense -0.070 (1465 Elo), 141 matchesSporting Cristal -- attack 0.350 (1675 Elo), defense 0.227 (1614 Elo), 148 matchesSporting CristalFBC Melgar -- attack 0.167 (1584 Elo), defense 0.252 (1626 Elo), 145 matchesCarlos A. Mannucci -- attack -0.105 (1447 Elo), defense -0.103 (1448 Elo), 106 matchesCarlos Stein -- attack -0.063 (1469 Elo), defense -0.163 (1418 Elo), 36 matchesADT -- attack -0.049 (1475 Elo), defense 0.068 (1534 Elo), 141 matchesAcademia Cantolao -- attack -0.214 (1393 Elo), defense -0.063 (1468 Elo), 72 matchesUniversitario -- attack 0.330 (1665 Elo), defense 0.539 (1770 Elo), 143 matchesUniversitarioU. San Martin -- attack -0.049 (1476 Elo), defense -0.176 (1412 Elo), 36 matchesAlianza Atletico -- attack -0.154 (1423 Elo), defense 0.337 (1668 Elo), 142 matchesAlianza AtleticoDeportivo Binacional -- attack -0.104 (1448 Elo), defense -0.132 (1434 Elo), 95 matchesCusco -- attack 0.278 (1639 Elo), defense 0.306 (1653 Elo), 108 matchesCuscoDeportivo Garcilaso -- attack -0.003 (1499 Elo), defense 0.122 (1561 Elo), 105 matchesUnion Comercio -- attack -0.163 (1419 Elo), defense -0.451 (1274 Elo), 70 matchesComerciantes Unidos -- attack -0.181 (1409 Elo), defense -0.060 (1470 Elo), 68 matchesClub Deportivo Los Chankas -- attack 0.023 (1511 Elo), defense -0.030 (1485 Elo), 69 matchesAlianza Universidad -- attack -0.006 (1497 Elo), defense -0.248 (1376 Elo), 35 matchesJuan Pablo II College -- attack -0.227 (1387 Elo), defense -0.008 (1496 Elo), 36 matches

Dot size = matches played (a small dot is a partial-season sample -- promoted/relegated sides). Color is combined attack+defense strength, green (strong) to red (weak). Labeled: top 3 by attack, top 3 by defense.

TeamAttackDefenseAtk EloDef EloGF vs avg defenseGA vs avg attackMatches
Sporting Cristal0.3500.227167516141.440.81148
Universitario0.3300.539166517701.410.59143
Cusco0.2780.306163916531.340.75108
Alianza Lima0.2490.350162416751.300.71147
Cienciano0.1950.052159715261.230.96141
FBC Melgar0.1670.252158416261.200.79145
Sport Huancayo0.141-0.070157014651.171.09141
Club Deportivo Los Chankas0.023-0.030151114851.041.0569
Deportivo Garcilaso-0.0030.122149915611.010.90105
Alianza Universidad-0.006-0.248149713761.011.3035
Atletico Grau-0.0440.071147815350.970.94141
U. San Martin-0.049-0.176147614120.971.2136
ADT-0.0490.068147515340.970.95141
Carlos Stein-0.063-0.163146914180.951.1936
Deportivo Municipal-0.071-0.082146514590.951.1072
Deportivo Binacional-0.104-0.132144814340.911.1695
Cesar Vallejo-0.105-0.072144714640.911.09106
Carlos A. Mannucci-0.105-0.103144714480.911.12106
Sport Boys-0.152-0.078142414610.871.10141
Alianza Atletico-0.1540.337142316680.870.72142
Union Comercio-0.163-0.451141912740.861.5970
Ayacucho FC-0.169-0.072141514640.861.0970
Comerciantes Unidos-0.181-0.060140914700.851.0868
Academia Cantolao-0.214-0.063139314680.821.0872
Juan Pablo II College-0.227-0.008138714960.811.0236
UTC Cajamarca-0.231-0.155138514230.811.18142

Atk/Def Elo = 1500 + raw × 500 -- a cosmetic rescale for familiarity, not a real unit conversion. Chess Elo's 400-point gap has a specific meaning (10:1 win odds) that goal-scoring rate has no equivalent of. The Attack/Defense columns are what the model actually computes with.

2026 over 1.5 check

P(total goals ≥ 2) for every completed match since 2026-01-01 across all 38 tracked leagues -- the mu_home + mu_away → Poisson total construction, same as over-15-card's own math, just fed by Goal Elo's ratings instead. Each prediction used only ratings built from strictly earlier matches, compared against a baseline that knows just the league's average scoring rate and home advantage, no team identity at all.

7,770
Matches scored
75.8%
Actual over-1.5 rate
0.182
Model Brier score
-0.5%
Skill vs baseline

Honest read: over 1.5 is a low bar in football (the baseline alone already expects it 76% of the time), so knowing which specific teams are playing barely moves the needle here -- skill sits close to 0% pooled, unlike the real, consistent edge Attack/Defense showed on raw expected goals. The model is well calibrated (see below), it just isn't adding much information a viewer didn't already have from the league's baseline rate.

Reliability

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Predicted P(over 1.5)Actual over-1.5 rateperfect calibrationpredicted ~50%, actually over 1.5 51% of the time (n=45)predicted ~55%, actually over 1.5 67% of the time (n=177)predicted ~60%, actually over 1.5 65% of the time (n=428)predicted ~65%, actually over 1.5 71% of the time (n=967)predicted ~70%, actually over 1.5 74% of the time (n=1564)predicted ~75%, actually over 1.5 76% of the time (n=1858)predicted ~80%, actually over 1.5 79% of the time (n=1593)predicted ~85%, actually over 1.5 84% of the time (n=835)predicted ~90%, actually over 1.5 87% of the time (n=243)predicted ~95%, actually over 1.5 95% of the time (n=44)

Matches bucketed by predicted P(over 1.5); dot = actual over-1.5 rate in that bucket (size = sample). On the dashed line means perfectly calibrated.

Skill vs no-team-identity baseline

Peru - Primera Division
5.0%
Bolivia - Primera Division
3.8%
South Africa - Premier Soccer League
3.2%
Turkey - Super Lig
2.2%
Portugal - Primeira Liga
2.1%
Ecuador - Liga Pro
1.8%
Russia - Premier League
1.1%
China - Super League
1.1%
USA - MLS
1.0%
Australia - A-League
0.9%
Brazil - Serie A
0.4%
Argentina - Liga Profesional
0.3%
Colombia - Primera A
0.1%
Costa Rica - Primera Division
0.0%
Chile - Primera Division
-0.2%
Norway - Eliteserien
-0.2%
France - Ligue 1
-0.3%
Greece - Super League
-0.5%
Guatemala - Liga Nacional
-0.6%
Spain - La Liga
-0.6%
Italy - Serie A
-1.1%
Netherlands - Eredivisie
-1.3%
El Salvador - Primera Division
-1.3%
Uruguay - Primera Division
-1.4%
Honduras - Liga Nacional
-1.6%
Sweden - Allsvenskan
-1.9%
Denmark - Superliga
-2.1%
Mexico - Liga MX
-2.4%
Paraguay - Division Profesional (Apertura)
-2.4%
Saudi Arabia - Pro League
-2.6%
England - Premier League
-2.7%
India - Indian Super League
-2.9%
Austria - Bundesliga
-2.9%
Scotland - Premiership
-3.0%
Venezuela - Primera Division
-3.3%
Japan - J1 League
-3.5%
Belgium - Jupiler Pro League
-4.1%
Germany - Bundesliga
-4.7%

1 − (model Brier / baseline Brier). 0% = no better than ignoring which teams are playing; a negative bar means Attack/Defense info actually hurt on that league's calls.

Biggest surprises

Lowest probability the model gave to what actually happened.

  • VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-05-09)model said 96% over
  • CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami (USA - MLS, 2026-07-25)model said 93% over
  • Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge (Belgium - Jupiler Pro League, 2026-08-23)model said 92% over
  • Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo (Spain - La Liga, 2026-04-22)model said 92% over
  • FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Germany - Bundesliga, 2026-09-05)model said 92% over
  • Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF (Sweden - Allsvenskan, 2026-08-31)model said 91% over
  • FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (Denmark - Superliga, 2026-03-15)model said 91% over
  • Always Ready 1-0 Oriente Petrolero (Bolivia - Primera Division, 2026-04-22)model said 91% over
  • Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur (Australia - A-League, 2026-02-22)model said 90% over
  • Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Arabia - Pro League, 2026-03-14)model said 90% over

All predictions — Peru - Primera Division (235)

Switch leagues with the tabs above the ratings table; newest match first.

DateMatchScoreP(over)ActualCall
2026-09-19Alianza Lima v ADT2-077%over✓
2026-09-18Alianza Atletico v Comerciantes Unidos2-176%over✓
2026-09-13Alianza Lima v Universitario1-267%over✓
2026-09-13UCV Moquegua v Sporting Cristal1-276%over✓
2026-09-13Sport Boys v Deportivo Garcilaso1-062%under✗
2026-09-13Atletico Grau v Alianza Atletico3-163%over✓
2026-09-12Cusco v FBC Melgar0-178%under✗
2026-09-12Club Deportivo Los Chankas v FC Cajamarca1-288%over✓
2026-09-12Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Huancayo0-181%under✗
2026-09-11UTC Cajamarca v Juan Pablo II College1-282%over✓
2026-09-06Universitario v Comerciantes Unidos2-278%over✓
2026-09-06Sporting Cristal v Club Deportivo Los Chankas5-086%over✓
2026-09-06Deportivo Garcilaso v Atletico Grau4-259%over✓
2026-09-06Juan Pablo II College v Alianza Lima1-175%over✓
2026-09-06FBC Melgar v ADT3-080%over✓
2026-09-05Sport Huancayo v Sport Boys2-172%over✓
2026-09-05Cusco v UCV Moquegua2-078%over✓
2026-09-04FC Cajamarca v Cienciano2-585%over✓
2026-09-04Alianza Atletico v UTC Cajamarca3-279%over✓
2026-09-01Atletico Grau v FBC Melgar1-064%under✗
2026-08-31Cienciano v Cusco1-283%over✓
2026-08-30Alianza Lima v Deportivo Garcilaso0-167%under✗
2026-08-30UCV Moquegua v Alianza Atletico1-463%over✓
2026-08-30ADT v Sport Huancayo1-379%over✓
2026-08-30Sport Boys v Sporting Cristal1-074%under✗
2026-08-29Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Juan Pablo II College3-481%over✓
2026-08-29UTC Cajamarca v Universitario2-469%over✓
2026-08-28Comerciantes Unidos v FC Cajamarca2-381%over✓
2026-08-23Deportivo Garcilaso v Cusco4-170%over✓
2026-08-23Sport Boys v Cienciano5-168%over✓
2026-08-23FBC Melgar v Alianza Lima1-171%over✓
2026-08-23Universitario v Club Deportivo Los Chankas3-076%over✓
2026-08-22Sport Huancayo v UCV Moquegua0-275%over✓
2026-08-22UTC Cajamarca v Comerciantes Unidos1-370%over✓
2026-08-22Juan Pablo II College v ADT5-172%over✓
2026-08-21FC Cajamarca v Atletico Grau1-369%over✓
2026-08-21Alianza Atletico v Sporting Cristal3-174%over✓
2026-08-16Alianza Lima v UTC Cajamarca1-082%under✗
2026-08-16Sporting Cristal v Sport Huancayo4-184%over✓
2026-08-16UCV Moquegua v Sport Boys1-161%over✓
2026-08-16FC Cajamarca v Universitario2-371%over✓
2026-08-16Cienciano v Deportivo Garcilaso0-073%under✗
2026-08-15ADT v Alianza Atletico1-165%over✓
2026-08-15Club Deportivo Los Chankas v FBC Melgar0-377%over✓
2026-08-14Atletico Grau v Comerciantes Unidos1-062%under✗
2026-08-14Cusco v Juan Pablo II College2-085%over✓
2026-08-09Sport Boys v Alianza Lima1-162%over✓
2026-08-09Deportivo Garcilaso v UCV Moquegua2-065%over✓
2026-08-09FBC Melgar v FC Cajamarca2-481%over✓
2026-08-08Universitario v Sporting Cristal1-176%over✓
2026-08-08UTC Cajamarca v ADT1-172%over✓
2026-08-08Juan Pablo II College v Atletico Grau0-069%under✗
2026-08-07Sport Huancayo v Club Deportivo Los Chankas1-181%over✓
2026-08-07Comerciantes Unidos v Cusco3-174%over✓
2026-08-06Alianza Atletico v Cienciano1-075%under✗
2026-08-02Alianza Lima v Alianza Atletico3-170%over✓
2026-08-02Sporting Cristal v Juan Pablo II College2-088%over✓
2026-08-02ADT v Deportivo Garcilaso0-167%under✗
2026-08-02UCV Moquegua v FBC Melgar0-072%under✗
2026-08-02Cienciano v Universitario2-074%over✓
2026-08-01FC Cajamarca v Sport Huancayo0-283%over✓
2026-08-01Atletico Grau v Sport Boys0-158%under✗
2026-08-01Cusco v UTC Cajamarca4-180%over✓
2026-07-31Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Comerciantes Unidos3-273%over✓
2026-07-27Deportivo Garcilaso v FC Cajamarca2-174%over✓
2026-07-26FBC Melgar v Sporting Cristal2-183%over✓
2026-07-26UTC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua0-073%under✗
2026-07-26Comerciantes Unidos v Alianza Lima2-264%over✓
2026-07-25Universitario v Cusco2-172%over✓
2026-07-25Sport Boys v ADT2-064%over✓
2026-07-25Sport Huancayo v Atletico Grau2-072%over✓
2026-07-25Juan Pablo II College v Cienciano2-085%over✓
2026-07-24Alianza Atletico v Club Deportivo Los Chankas3-168%over✓
2026-07-20Alianza Lima v Sport Huancayo2-184%over✓
2026-07-19Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Sport Boys1-070%under✗
2026-07-18Cienciano v FBC Melgar1-381%over✓
2026-07-18UCV Moquegua v Comerciantes Unidos2-266%over✓
2026-07-18ADT v Universitario1-265%over✓
2026-07-18Atletico Grau v UTC Cajamarca3-166%over✓
2026-07-18Cusco v Alianza Atletico4-166%over✓
2026-07-17FC Cajamarca v Juan Pablo II College2-285%over✓
2026-07-17Sporting Cristal v Deportivo Garcilaso1-078%under✗
2026-05-31Universitario v Sport Huancayo2-181%over✓
2026-05-31FBC Melgar v Alianza Atletico3-166%over✓
2026-05-31FC Cajamarca v Alianza Lima1-172%over✓
2026-05-31Club Deportivo Los Chankas v UTC Cajamarca2-276%over✓
2026-05-31Cienciano v Sporting Cristal3-285%over✓
2026-05-30ADT v Cusco1-271%over✓
2026-05-30Deportivo Garcilaso v Juan Pablo II College4-177%over✓
2026-05-30Sport Boys v Comerciantes Unidos1-063%under✗
2026-05-29Atletico Grau v UCV Moquegua1-064%under✗
2026-05-25Comerciantes Unidos v Deportivo Garcilaso0-066%under✗
2026-05-24Alianza Lima v Club Deportivo Los Chankas3-074%over✓
2026-05-24Sporting Cristal v ADT2-179%over✓
2026-05-24Sport Huancayo v Cienciano2-283%over✓
2026-05-24Alianza Atletico v FC Cajamarca1-170%over✓
2026-05-23UCV Moquegua v Universitario0-068%under✗
2026-05-23UTC Cajamarca v Sport Boys0-070%under✗
2026-05-23Cusco v Atletico Grau1-069%under✗
2026-05-22Juan Pablo II College v FBC Melgar1-179%over✓
2026-05-17Sport Boys v Cusco1-071%under✗
2026-05-17ADT v Comerciantes Unidos2-070%over✓
2026-05-17Deportivo Garcilaso v UTC Cajamarca2-074%over✓
2026-05-17Club Deportivo Los Chankas v UCV Moquegua1-077%under✗
2026-05-16Universitario v Atletico Grau0-171%under✗
2026-05-16FBC Melgar v Sport Huancayo4-181%over✓
2026-05-16Juan Pablo II College v Alianza Atletico0-269%over✓
2026-05-16Cienciano v Alianza Lima0-175%under✗
2026-05-15FC Cajamarca v Sporting Cristal3-181%over✓
2026-05-12Sport Boys v Universitario0-070%under✗
2026-05-11Deportivo Garcilaso v Alianza Atletico2-160%over✓
2026-05-10Alianza Lima v Sporting Cristal1-181%over✓
2026-05-10Sport Huancayo v Juan Pablo II College2-185%over✓
2026-05-10Comerciantes Unidos v FBC Melgar1-170%over✓
2026-05-10Cusco v Club Deportivo Los Chankas1-178%over✓
2026-05-09UCV Moquegua v ADT2-271%over✓
2026-05-09Atletico Grau v Cienciano1-272%over✓
2026-05-08UTC Cajamarca v FC Cajamarca1-277%over✓
2026-05-04Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Deportivo Garcilaso0-175%under✗
2026-05-03Alianza Lima v UCV Moquegua2-178%over✓
2026-05-03Sporting Cristal v Cusco2-281%over✓
2026-05-03Juan Pablo II College v Universitario1-474%over✓
2026-05-03Alianza Atletico v Sport Huancayo4-167%over✓
2026-05-03FBC Melgar v UTC Cajamarca2-079%over✓
2026-05-02FC Cajamarca v Sport Boys3-272%over✓
2026-05-02ADT v Atletico Grau1-067%under✗
2026-05-02Cienciano v Comerciantes Unidos1-082%under✗
2026-04-28Deportivo Garcilaso v FBC Melgar1-072%under✗
2026-04-27ADT v Club Deportivo Los Chankas4-072%over✓
2026-04-26Sport Boys v Juan Pablo II College1-176%over✓
2026-04-26UTC Cajamarca v Cienciano2-280%over✓
2026-04-26Cusco v Sport Huancayo2-180%over✓
2026-04-26Atletico Grau v Alianza Lima0-166%under✗
2026-04-26Universitario v Alianza Atletico1-263%over✓
2026-04-25UCV Moquegua v FC Cajamarca2-175%over✓
2026-04-25Comerciantes Unidos v Sporting Cristal1-080%under✗
2026-04-23Universitario v Deportivo Garcilaso4-169%over✓
2026-04-23Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cienciano1-083%under✗
2026-04-22Comerciantes Unidos v Alianza Atletico1-062%under✗
2026-04-22Atletico Grau v Sporting Cristal4-172%over✓
2026-04-22Cusco v FC Cajamarca1-081%under✗
2026-04-20Cienciano v UCV Moquegua2-184%over✓
2026-04-19Alianza Lima v Cusco8-068%over✓
2026-04-19Sporting Cristal v UTC Cajamarca3-283%over✓
2026-04-19Alianza Atletico v Sport Boys0-165%under✗
2026-04-19FBC Melgar v Universitario2-167%over✓
2026-04-18FC Cajamarca v ADT2-271%over✓
2026-04-18Juan Pablo II College v Comerciantes Unidos2-276%over✓
2026-04-18Sport Huancayo v Deportivo Garcilaso2-172%over✓
2026-04-17Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Atletico Grau2-074%over✓
2026-04-15Sport Boys v FBC Melgar1-370%over✓
2026-04-15UTC Cajamarca v Sport Huancayo2-275%over✓
2026-04-14UCV Moquegua v Juan Pablo II College3-078%over✓
2026-04-14ADT v Alianza Lima0-164%under✗
2026-04-06FC Cajamarca v Club Deportivo Los Chankas0-180%under✗
2026-04-05Universitario v Alianza Lima1-064%under✗
2026-04-05Sport Huancayo v Comerciantes Unidos1-177%over✓
2026-04-05Juan Pablo II College v UTC Cajamarca2-176%over✓
2026-04-04Deportivo Garcilaso v Sport Boys3-265%over✓
2026-04-04FBC Melgar v Cusco1-371%over✓
2026-04-03Sporting Cristal v UCV Moquegua1-284%over✓
2026-04-03Alianza Atletico v Atletico Grau2-256%over✓
2026-04-03Cienciano v ADT3-279%over✓
2026-03-22UTC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico1-160%over✓
2026-03-22Atletico Grau v Deportivo Garcilaso0-062%under✗
2026-03-22Sport Boys v Sport Huancayo3-070%over✓
2026-03-21Cienciano v FC Cajamarca3-085%over✓
2026-03-21UCV Moquegua v Cusco1-270%over✓
2026-03-21Comerciantes Unidos v Universitario0-071%under✗
2026-03-21Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Sporting Cristal3-280%over✓
2026-03-21Alianza Lima v Juan Pablo II College2-081%over✓
2026-03-20ADT v FBC Melgar1-168%over✓
2026-03-15Universitario v UTC Cajamarca2-076%over✓
2026-03-15Sporting Cristal v Sport Boys3-078%over✓
2026-03-15FBC Melgar v Atletico Grau0-074%under✗
2026-03-15Alianza Atletico v UCV Moquegua3-062%over✓
2026-03-15Cusco v Cienciano1-279%over✓
2026-03-14Sport Huancayo v ADT0-175%under✗
2026-03-14Juan Pablo II College v Club Deportivo Los Chankas2-377%over✓
2026-03-14Deportivo Garcilaso v Alianza Lima1-165%over✓
2026-03-13FC Cajamarca v Comerciantes Unidos3-474%over✓
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